Category Archives: Olympics

Olympics

Olympic Preview — Team China

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It’s time to tackle one of the big dogs, the glorious and legendary bouquet of beam dance elements that is the nation of China. Since every other team has been overshadowed by the Americans this quad, it’s easy to gloss over the fact that China has quite successfully rebounded from the disappointing batch of taped-together injuries and comebacks that characterized the 2012 Olympic team to regain its place as the clear second-best team in the world, winning silver at the last two world championships.

This Chinese team does not boast the remarkable stature of the 2008 squad (no one would expect it to), and while increasing concerns over injuries and depth have introduced more doubt about that second-place status, it would be rather alarming if China were to leave the Olympics without a team medal. And at this point, that medal should be silver.

Team
Fan Yilin – 2015 world bars champion, potential D of 7.1, how bars handstands should look
Mao Yi – 2016 Chinese silver, keeping them afloat on vault and floor, a 3.5 + front pike on floor that you won’t even have to cry after
Shang Chunsong – 2015 & 2016 Chinese champion, obviously the best one, could win an AA medal even with a yfull, the one who was malnourished as a child so you can’t make fun of how young she looks anymore
Tan Jiaxin – Quad stalwart, replacing Liu Tingting, helps China’s scoring potential even though she’s less exciting than Liu, DTY and 6.7 D on bars
Wang Yan – The one who’s powerful even though she’s 2’3”, vaults a Kas 1/1 and rudi, you’re worried about her consistency on beam and floor, has that upsetting Adi Pop butt wiggle choreo this year

Projected Olympic lineups
Vault – (Shang) Tan, Mao, Wang
Bars – (Wang) Tan, Shang, Fan
Beam – (No one?) Wang, Fan, Shang
Floor – (Tan) Mao, Wang, Shang

There shouldn’t be too much drama in China’s lineups, although more drama is being injected by the day. Fan Yilin doesn’t do vault or floor, which makes that easy. On vault, Shang’s full will be used in qualification to get her into the AA while the TF lineup will be a DTY, DTY, Kas 1/1 for 5.8, 5.8, 6.0.

On floor, Tan has a viable mid-5s routine to use in qualification (she went in the TF in 2014), but Mao, Wang, and Shang are the clear floor standouts and have worked the code to get themselves up into the 6s, boasting what should end up being the second-highest floor D in the competition.

On bars, Tan, Shang, and Fan are the obvious team final gymnasts. Neither Wang or Mao excel on bars, but Wang will be the pick in qualification to get her in as China’s second AAer, especially if Mao really doesn’t end up competing beam in qualification.

On that issue, Tan Jiaxin doesn’t do beam at all, so that lineup seemed very straightforward (Mao in qualification only, the rest in TF) until word came that China may use only three on beam in qualification. For China’s sake, let’s hope Mao is the one not able to do beam—or just being held off beam for reasons of general mysteriousness—because anyone else would be catastrophic. If Mao doesn’t do beam, there would be exactly no point to put her on bars since she wouldn’t in contention for the all-around anyway.  Continue reading Olympic Preview — Team China →

Olympics

Olympic Preview — Team Canada

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Moving on to the Great North, it’s high time we tackle the prospects for Team Canada at the Olympics. Coming off the brilliant 5th-place success of the 2012 Olympics, the beginning of this quad was disappointingly thumpity-thump-thump for Canada as a team, regressing to finish 12th in 2014 against a somewhat nondescript field.

Fortunately, things have improved recently in the build-up to Rio. Canada managed a 6th-place finish at 2015 worlds, one that better reflects the current talent level and expectations for the country, and has put together a group of five for the Olympics that looks almost sure to improve on that 167.697 TF score that put Canada into 6th last year.

The focus for Canada will not be medals, as the most likely outcome would see Canada leave the Olympics with no gymnastics medals, but a number of competitive finishes should be in the cards.

Team
Ellie Black – 2015 Pan Am All The Medals, 2015 Worlds AA 7th, the one who has been the best Canadian gymnast for the last 5 years, bum hops, Elsabeth not Elizabeth
Shallon Olsen – 2016 Pac Rims vault champion, actually brand new human, coming to save your country on vault and floor
Isabela Onyshko – 2016 Canadian champion, beam difficulty is COAL MINING + SMALL TALK, suddenly getting 58s, might finally have it together
Brittany Rogers – 2016 champion of all of life forever, best bars worker in NCAA, actually what will Georgia do without her, I can’t even, possible superhero
Rose-Kaying Woo – 2016 Canadian bronze, the one who’s the younger sister, here to make beam not sad

Projected Olympic Lineups
Vault – (Onyshko) Black, Rogers, Olsen
Bars – (Woo?) Black, Onyshko, Rogers
Beam – (Rogers) Woo, Black, Onyshko
Floor – (Woo) Olsen, Onyshko, Black

The Canadian qualification lineups are pretty easy to come up with because of the excellent use of complementary specialists on this team. Well played, Canada.

On vault, Canada has four 5.8 options now that Onyshko is performing a DTY, though her DTY is still in the “got a zero at trials once” phase, making that vault more critical for her individual hopes than it is for the team, which already has three more proven high-difficulty vaults.

Canada will be relying on Onyshko and Rogers to prop up that bars score and keep it competitive, which they are capable of as long as we don’t have another 2015 TF incident. I’m not sure where I stand with using Black vs. Woo in the TF on bars. Woo has some lovely qualities, but her difficulty at trials was just 5.5, while Black’s is 5.8 in spite of her wanting to get off the bars as quickly as possible and then burn them because they’re a stupid jerk. The two have lately ended up with quite similar total scores, so Woo’s presence does allow for Black not to have to deal with bars.

Notably, Canada elected not to use Black in the TF last year, using a 13.533 from Older Woo instead. Black came back two days later and got 14.000 on bars in the AA final. I’ll be watching the comparison between the two closely in qualification.

Continue reading Olympic Preview — Team Canada →

Olympics

Olympic Preview — Team Great Britain

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The Olympics are close. Disturbingly close. Some might say panic-attack close. As such, it’s probably time to start previewing things. I’ll begin this multi-week previewing process (there’s a lot to get through) with a look at some of the major women’s teams vying for medals at the Olympics, starting with Great Britain.

You’ve come a long way, baby. 20 seconds ago, Great Britain was excited to qualify a team to the Olympics. 5 seconds ago, simply making the team final was a massive accomplishment. Now, Great Britain stands as the most likely heir to the big four to replace Romania (the queen is dead, long live the queen) and enters the 2016 Olympics with the sudden pressure and expectations that go along with being one of the top teams in the world. Simply qualifying to finals is no longer good enough. It’s expected. WE WANT MEDALS.

Team
Becky Downie — two-time European bars champion, general resilient badass, the shorter one but the older one
Ellie Downie — 2016 European vault and floor silver, sliding into your podium finishes, the taller one but the younger one
Claudia Fragapane — 2015 European floor silver, 2014 Commonwealth everything, so energetic that you don’t care about her form, makes you really uncomfortable when she gets called “pocket rocket”
Ruby Harrold – 2014 Commonwealth AA silver, her bars composition is more important than your life,  coming to make LSU the best bars team in 3…2…1…
Amy Tinkler – 2015 British AA champion, the one who isn’t Ellie Downie but who’s also making Great Britain good on vault and floor now, nicknamed “Tinkles” by just me

Projected Olympic Lineups
Vault: (Harrold), Fragapane, Tinkler, Downie
Bars: (Fragapane?), Harrold, E. Downie, B. Downie
Beam: (Tinkler), Fragapane, E. Downie, B. Downie
Floor: (Harrold), Tinkler, E. Downie. Fragapane

And by projected Olympic lineups, I of course mean what I would do. A.k.a., the correct answer.

Vault and floor are easy because Becky Downie doesn’t do them anymore. (Thanks, girl!) On vault, the team will have its pick from four viable DTYs in the team final. It’s a far cry from recent years of Imogen Cairns making teams because she had a 1.5. Fragapane’s vault is sloppy, but she tends to outscore Harrold, who can land chest down and take a larger lunge. On floor, the clear standouts are Tinkler, E. Downie, and Fragapane, who should all manage to score well into the 14s, the team’s best argument for challenging the likes of Russia and China.

Great Britain will, however, have some serious decisions to make on bars and beam as to who goes in qualification and who has a shot at the all-around. Continue reading Olympic Preview — Team Great Britain →

Olympics

Why Romania Got It Wrong

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Today, Romania kind of, sort of, probably, maybe, a little announced that Catalina Ponor will compete at the Olympics this year (because Romania) with Larisa Iordache as her second-in-command court jester, and to that I have to say….hrm. Incorrect.

It’s a difficult choice with arguments for both, but Larisa Iordache would have been the more prudent selection. Consider this the counterargument in favor of Iordache.

This quad is already lost for Romania. Nothing that happens at the Olympics will salvage it because the team didn’t qualify, but some manner of medal would at least symbolically indicate that there’s still life in the Romanian program. The only consideration for this spot should be who is more likely to be somewhere near medal form at the Olympics. At the Olympics. Not right now. At the Olympics.

That person is Iordache. Let’s break it down. Continue reading Why Romania Got It Wrong →