Category Archives: P&G Championships

P&G Championships

Splatfest 2015

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I like to consider myself a connoisseur of splatfests. It is my calling. And the first day of women’s competition at the national championships last night was a truly lovely vintage. It wasn’t quite 2000 Trials level (that’s an unrealistic standard to which to hold other competitions—we can’t all be 2000 Trials), but Aly Raisman did fall on a split jump, so it was pretty competitive. During the meet, I may or may not have started singing “Car Wash” but with “splatfest” instead of “car wash.”

Now, except for Maggie Nichols continuing to be a Solid Sandy and confirming her place in the new world order, and Simone Biles just casually throwing out the best E score of all time (have we confirmed that? I think it is, beating Nastia’s beam 9.800 at 2008 Pacific Rims, but has anyone scoured the records to make sure?), this meet will probably end up counting as an incomplete. For the rest of you, we’ll pretend it never happened and just start over tomorrow.

But, what I love about this splatfest most of all (other than how PISSSSSSED Aly and Simone looked the whole time—heartwarming) is that it throws some serious doubt onto that pre-summer presumptive team of Biles, Douglas, Raisman, Nichols, Key, Ross. Primarily because of bars. (And also maybe because of Alyssa Baumann…pleeeeeassse?)

There are still a million things that can change between now and the selection camp. Kupets will make a comeback. The Worlds team will be reduced to 2 and a half members (2 AAers and then whatever is left of Madison Kocian’s legs after this weekend). But, as we stand right now, that presumptive team has some pretty large cracks in it. Let’s talk about that to make this summer of selection a lot more interesting than it has been so far. At least until tomorrow, when everything will change again. I fully own the flippant and mercurial attitude I bring to team selection.

How do you solve a problem like Kyla? That’s not really the Sound of Music reference I would have expected to need to use about Kyla. She’s supposed to be the Edelweiss of USA Gymnastics. But her bars are turning into an issue. Partly because of the falling (this routine doesn’t make me feel warm and safe like a sweater the way her 2012 routine did), but mostly because of the potential score even when she does hit. Give her back a point for the fall yesterday, and she’s still in 7th on bars, well behind several of the bars specialists contending for a spot. Her difficulty is down to 6.0 from the more competitive 6.3 she was planning, and that’s not a good sign. She needs a selection camp step-up in that regard.

For now, it appears that if Kyla does makes the Worlds team, it will be because she’s a known and trusted entity who can hit in major situations (regardless of these recent performances). Which is not an unimportant consideration. Even though her beam scores have been lower, I would still trust her on beam in TF more than some other options who have been scoring higher. (Though I would also be perfectly happy with three of Biles/Raisman/Douglas/Baumann on beam, which is part of the problem for her.)

But a team with Kyla wouldn’t be the team with the highest scoring potential at this point. If you’re bringing Kyla for bars, why not bring Kocian or Locklear instead? If you’re bringing her for bars and beam, why not bring Gowey, who had an under-the-radar pretty awesome day yesterday, getting top five on both her events and stepping up that bars difficulty?

I’m still not sure how she managed to get a 6.6 D score for that routine since I have it as a 6.5 and she didn’t stick (maybe just because Gowey?), but she’s back on my radar for now because I’m obsessed with her. But also because that bars routine can score quite well, and she’s more usable on beam than Kocian or Locklear. Though bars is the real factor, so she would need to be able to score right with those other two, not a couple tenths below, to be considered. Watch that space. Also decisive will be whether Locklear can get all her skills back by Worlds. This is a downgraded routine that still got a 15.400. If she’s able to get her D score back, it’s hard to say no to the insane cleanliness of this bars work.

Or, you could combine two people to do the job and bring Kocian for bars and Baumann for beam. (If you feel you need another beamer, which I don’t really think the team does.) Or both Kocian and Locklear for bars again. That would put Bailie Key under pressure. Several weeks ago, she was in the same boat as Nichols, and I do think that if everything goes to plan, they have pretty similar scoring potential in the AA. The difference is Nichols’ Amanar, which is essential right now, leaving Key much lower in the pecking order.

In that pre-summer presumptive team, you would have Key doing bars in TF, but maybe only bars now that Nichols is scoring equivalently on floor. Key on floor is not the MUST routine it seemed like it would be. So that puts her almost in the same boat as Kyla. If she’s only there in TF to do bars, why not use Kocian/Locklear? Kocian/Locklear/Douglas is the best option for the US on bars, and with Biles, Raisman, and Nichols nailing the power events right now, that’s a legitimate team that didn’t seem as realistic pre-Classic.

If yesterday’s competition were the women’s team final at Worlds, here’s how a few different combinations of teams would have scored (using the team’s three highest scores on each event). Yes, I know it’s silly to use one day of competition to make sweeping conclusions about teams and scoring potential, especially because so many people fell and got unusable scores. That’s not the point. It’s just a fun exercise to clarify how much people are actually adding.

Biles, Douglas, Raisman, Nichols, Key, Ross – 181.600
VT – 47.300: Biles 16.250, Nichols 15.800, Key 15.250 
UB – 45.650: Douglas 15.300, Key 15.200, Biles 15.150
BB – 43.650: Biles 14.800, Douglas 14.450, Nichols 14.400
FX – 45.000: Raisman 15.550, Biles 14.900, Nichols 14.550

(Why Kyla really could have helped her argument with a normal Kyla beam set last night. It would have brought this team total way up instead of being a point behind other options.)

Biles, Douglas, Raisman, Nichols, Key, Kocian – 181.950
VT – 47.300: Biles 16.250, Nichols 15.800, Key 15.250 
UB – 46.000: Kocian 15.500, Douglas 15.300, Key 15.200,
BB – 43.650: Biles 14.800, Douglas 14.450, Nichols 14.400
FX – 45.000: Raisman 15.550, Biles 14.900, Nichols 14.550

Biles, Douglas, Raisman, Nichols, Kocian, Locklear – 182.100
VT – 47.250: Biles 16.250, Nichols 15.800, Raisman 15.200
UB – 46.200: Kocian 15.500, Locklear 15.400, Douglas 15.300
BB – 43.650: Biles 14.800, Douglas 14.450, Nichols 14.400
FX – 45.000: Raisman 15.550, Biles 14.900, Nichols 14.550

Biles, Douglas, Raisman, Nichols, Kocian, Baumann – 182.600
VT – 47.250: Biles 16.250, Nichols 15.800, Raisman 15.200
UB – 45.950: Kocian 15.500, Douglas 15.300, Biles 15.150
BB – 44.400: Baumann, 15.150, Biles 14.800, Douglas 14.450
FX – 45.000: Raisman 15.550, Biles 14.900, Nichols 14.550

That Baumann beam score would add a lot in this scenario, but it’s mostly because Raisman had a fall and Douglas had a wobbler. Her routine wouldn’t normally add that much to the team compared to other options. And actually, if you take that last scenario and put Locklear in for Douglas, you get to a 182.650 total, though Biles, Raisman, Nichols, Kocian, Locklear, Baumann is not going to be the team. That more highlights the problem of using one day of competition to make judgments more than anything else and that some of the big names who aren’t in that group have some work to do tomorrow to get back into it. 

P&G Championships

Post-Championships

Another national championship done and done. And then it’s over. And then what’s the point of anything anymore? Guh.

Simone Biles is the star of the world. Obviously. She’s just better than you. And by you, I mean everyone. She’s a thoroughly enjoyable national champion. I even had a moment where I was eager to hear Simone’s post-meet interviews, which is strange and new territory. Can you believe it? I want to know what she’s going to say! Who was the last US gymnast who was engaging enough in interviews to make them worth watching? Alicia Sacramone? That’s a victory in itself. Who even cares about the meet?

Especially because Simone’s excellence made the whole thing not super exciting. We were left to try to enjoy the scraps of the fight for second, which is inherently non-dramatic. It’s like when you’re playing a board game with a group of people, someone wins, and then someone else inevitably says, “Do you want to keep playing for second?” and you’re like “. . . no.” That was this national championship. At least Sam Mikulak had the decency to kind of screw up on the first day so that he could mount a glorious and dramatic comeback on day 2 to make it competitive and down-to-the-wire and all the other things we like.

My favorite part of the men’s second day was listening to Tim Daggett try to balance his commentary between “Jake Dalton is obviously not going to win—he finishes on pommel horse” and trying to force himself to pretend like Dalton was still in it for the title to feed into the Trautwiggy/NBCy need to turn up the drama and make everything into “THE BIGGEST MOMENT OF HIS LIFE,” which I think Al said at least six times. Well, at one point he said, “the last rotation of his life,” which was weird and morbid and I didn’t know what was happening. Someone who has a lot of time and energy should go through all the old NBC broadcasts and cut together every time Al says that a routine is the biggest moment of someone’s life. It would be an epic miniseries. Nastia alone probably had between 12 and 15 biggest moments of her life. 

But the thing is, they had a much closer and more exciting finish between Mikulak and Orozco that they barely mentioned because they were busy staring into Jake Dalton’s Twilight-fan-art eyes. I understand. Tim even declared the meet for Mikulak (and Dalton in second, which didn’t happen) before Orozco finished, and I would have loved it had Orozco actually gotten the super-high floor score he needed, just to force them to backtrack. I should really work on my obsession with everything going terribly.

Still, it was close and worth caring about to the end. Hooray! Men’s gymnastics definitely has better writers than women’s gymnastics. Simone, on the other hand, was winning before podium training and didn’t manage to fall until her last routine, which carried with it no drama whatsoever. Granted, she would have had to fall about 11 more times for the event to start inching into the word “competitive.” She’s just too much better, which we know because of how much time NBC spent showing her smiling. The same person who has time to make the Al’s Biggest Moments of Your Life miniseries should go through and count how much time was spent showing Simone standing around versus how much time was spent showing routines. I assume Simone standing wins in a landslide.

Now let’s talk about Rachel Gowey for a second. Because I need to. Rachel Gowey fractured her ankle at podium training because the world is stupid and everything is the worst and there’s no joy in the world. I had started to rely on her beam and maybe her vault in my head as vital in the Worlds selection process, so without her, the conversation expands to include a few more people, namely anyone with a pulse and a split (or even not, apparently).

Which brings me to a point. The switch half on beam. STOP DOING IT EVERYONE. You can’t. So don’t. It’s not even a skill what you’re doing. It’s just a thing. Skinner’s gets the most attention because it almost achieves 7 degrees sometimes, but she’s hardly the only one. Maggie Nichols has a really solid and enjoyable beam routine except for the switch half, and I noticed Hano this summer also suffering from not-even-close-switch-half fever. On what planet do these coaches think that the inevitable execution deductions and likely downgrade of the skill are worth the one tenth in difficulty you get for that over a regular switch split? IT MAKES YOUR ROUTINE WORSE. Have you learned nothing from Kyla Ross? DO EXECUTION. BUH. Done.  

Moving on, bars. After night one, I think everyone had the collective and horrifying thought that bars might be an OK event for the US right now. Even one of the better ones. There were more bars specialists than Amanars in this meet. Think about that. But don’t worry, because our world view and comfortable narrative fell back into place on night 2 as the mistakes reappeared the way we always knew they would. Still, the bars discussion is probably the most interesting part of the Worlds selection chatter for the next month or so.

We’re still waiting on Kyla and Simone to upgrade back to their 2013 bars routines, but who knows what the possible timeline would be on that. It’s not like Simone even needs to. But on night 1, the three main contenders for the title of bars queen were Ashton Locklear, Brenna Dowell, and Madison Kocian, all of whom scored comfortably into the 15s. Locklear did herself a world of good by being the highest scorer of the group, and therefore the most likely to assume the title of bars specialist, but it was also an important night for Dowell because she needed to prove she could hit a high-difficulty routine for a solid score, which she did. The one who didn’t come out in a great position on night 1 was Kocian because even though she hit a clean routine, she was third on bars, which makes it hard to state a case as a bars girl, especially because we can assume Kyla will be one of the three at Worlds. But then night 2 happened.

By Saturday, things turned upside down a little bit. Locklear missed a connection and was just a little bit sloppier than in her other routines. That alone shouldn’t hurt her very much, but since she has one main contribution event and still has to prove consistency as a newbie, every little error is magnified. Kocian, meanwhile, stepped up her routine by a couple tenths and was suddenly the top scorer, which helps her case as the most consistent option of the 15ers, even if she may not have quite as high difficulty. The one who was really hurt by night 2 was Dowell. She needed to prove she can hit that routine over and over again, but on the second day she regressed almost all the way back to Classic level. Yes, she can potentially hit a high score with her huge difficulty, but she’s less consistent and sloppier than both Locklear and Kocian, which is doomsday. Dowell is not going to Worlds for that bars routine. The way she gets to Worlds is by showing up at selection camp doing the AA and proving that her vault is valuable enough to be necessary as a top 3 vaulter and that she’s usable on floor. Bars would just be a possible but risky bonus. Tough road.

Right now, most people seem to be putting together a team looking something like Biles, Ross, Locklear, Kocian, Skinner, and beam? Baumann? With Nichols as the alternate. Which makes sense. Skinner is Skinner, but I don’t see how you don’t take her if she hits vault and floor at Pan Ams—if she wins VT and FX, that’s the ballgame. People are making the “She’ll never get those scores internationally” argument about Skinner, but the problem with that argument is that it’s not really a thing. She probably shouldn’t be getting the execution scores that she’s getting in the US, but what makes you think it would be any different at Worlds? In recent years, the international judges have proven no more willing to destroy a routine for execution that the domestic judges. Aly Raisman’s bars is the best example. Yeah, her form was insane and you could find a billion deductions if you wanted to, but the Worlds judges didn’t evaluate it any differently from the US judges, and I assume Skinner will be much the same. Maybe a couple tenths lower, but nothing extreme. 

In other news, I became a Maggie Nichols fan on night 2 of the women’s competition. I’m not sure when it happened, but it happened. I simply enjoy watching her gymnastics (when she’s not doing a switch half on beam or going on a little flappy-wrist excursion). Can you imagine when she gets to Oklahoma? She’s going to destroy everyone in the face. She was made for it. And marrying KJ’s style with hers? Yes please. I’d like to see her on the Worlds team this year, but I admit she does make an excellent alternate and is probably fourth-best on a lot of events. Hopefully she wins the AA at Pan Ams to help bolster her case. We shall see.    

As for the junior women, the competition had a slightly different feel this year. We’re used to the top couple juniors scoring right with the seniors and renewing the discussion of age limits because they could easily go to Worlds and dominate if they were age eligible. That didn’t really happen this year. To be fair, it probably would have if Bailie Key were healthy, but as it was, the junior competition showed us a lot of people who aren’t ready to be seniors yet. We saw works in progress. Jazmyn Foberg won the title, and first let’s talk about what a big upset that was. No one at all had her winning this thing going into the competition, and in a sport that has become basically devoid of upsets, that gets a minor round of applause from me. But the reason she won was that she hit 8 routines of competitive difficulty and was the only person to do that. There was no huge scoring or blowing out of the water situation.

Foberg could very well be a factor once she’s a senior, but because she won with a “slow and steady wins the race” kind of meet instead of a “Bam! 60 in the AA” kind of meet, she’s not getting the SHE IS THE FUTURE QUEEN OF EARTH reaction that US junior champions usually get. Four years ago Kyla Ross won and eight years ago Shawn Johnson won, and in both cases it was “You’re going to the Olympics, obviously.” That’s not the case this year.

Of the other juniors, Nia Dennis is the farthest along. And by that, I mean her gymnastics has the look and composition of a senior gymnast. She would have fit right in, but but she was still falling, falling, falling and Martha will give that seven side-eyes I’m sure, and others like Norah Flatley are on a track (a smart track) that doesn’t have them peaking anywhere close to now. Flatley has the pieces layed out on every apparatus but not the full routines put together for huge scores, yet. It’s a game of pacing. 

I was thinking, if there were no age limits, would any of the (healthy) juniors be on your Worlds team? Possibly Norah Flatley for beam even though she struggled at Championships because the US needs that third beamer, or Nia Dennis for vault/floor depending on consistency, but there aren’t any of those juniors who would 100% be going and starring if they were 16, which is unusual for this point in the quad. 

More stray thoughts:

  • Media training for US gymnasts should contain a “What tattoos to get, and what not to get” day. It’s really important information to get out there. Panels will include “Classy is spelled with a C,” “Don’t let Geddert happen to you,” and “The neck: a minefield.”
  • Evan, Sam, and Raj on the USAGym streams were delights. I learned more about men’s gymnastics deductions in ten minutes from Evan and Raj than I have from years of other broadcasts. And Evan and Sam’s dynamic would be perfectly suited to NCAA gymnastics broadcasts. Please do all of them (once you’re done competing, Sam—UCLA needs another year of your beam).
  • The women’s senior competition was basically a Florida/UCLA dual meet in 2017. Those are the lineups. Those two teams essentially have the elite market sewn up, with a couple Sooners thrown in. Florida’s 2017 class is Gowey, Locklear, Baumann, and Hundley. Yep. 

Is there anything else I think? Probably. Oh well. I thought this was going to be short. Apparently I don’t do that.

Fun with Numbers, P&G Championships

Post-Classic, Pre-Championships Difficulties

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Now that we have lurched ourselves in that strange, antsy interim period between Classic and Championships, it’s time to revisit the difficulty scores for the US women based on what we learned at Classic, which was mostly nothing. Classic essentially served to confirm what we already knew, that Simone Biles and Kyla Ross are dominating the all-around picture, without providing many answers about the rest of the senior elite group.

But the picture has adjusted slightly, so I have updated the super cool, popular kid spreadsheets of  current D-scores on each event after the performances at Classic. I retained a couple D-scores that we haven’t yet seen this season, like the 6.4 and 6.1 on bars for Ross and Biles respectively, because even though they didn’t try those routines at Classic, both are intending to build back up to those scores as the year progresses. 

As necessary, I tried to remove the stick bonus from Classic (which was irritatingly added to the D-Score) wherever it reared its ugly head, so I have Biles at her real score of 6.5 on floor and Locklear at her real 6.5 on bars, but I grant I may have missed a few.

VAULT

Biles, obviously. With Maroney injured and Price off to Stanford, Biles is clearly the best vaulter in the country. After that, it gets a bit interesting. 

Mykayla Skinner, you guys. What are we going to do about this situation? Without that many difficult vaults being done right now, 2014 would seem like the year for her to muscle her way onto the team as a vault specialist with that Dadaist Cheng of hers. Yet, at Classic she scored lower on vault than Ross, even if we take out Kyla’s stick bonus. You don’t get to be a vault specialist if you’re scoring lower than Kyla Ross’s DTY. That’s the rule. We tend to look only at the highest difficulty vaults in formulating prospective team final scenarios, but the US could be perfectly fine at Worlds using Ross’s DTY as a leadoff. They’d still have a big vault advantage. If Skinner is going to make it to Worlds as a vaulter, she’ll have to prove that she is markedly and reliably better than Ross, which she hasn’t done yet.

However, Skinner’s vault fate may rest mostly in the hands of Gowey and Dowell, the final two current members of the Amanar club. Gowey went for the 2.5 at Classic and fell, so she’ll have to prove some consistency with that vault at Championships/selection to be considered as a vaulter. She is a Martha favorite, though, so she’ll have time to find that consistency. With Dowell, who even knows where she is with that ankle injury, but her 2.5 has been usable in the past. She’ll still be in the conversation if she ends up showing four events soon. We have the potential for an entertaining vault showdown brewing among this group of non-Biles vaulters. A couple of them need to finish top 3 on vault at Nationals.

BARS

Of all the event landscapes, bars changed the most as a result of Classic. It’s getting iiiiiinteresting, which we can’t usually say about US bars. Usually, it’s more diiiiiisheartening.

Ashton Locklear was the big story with her 6.5 routine and fairly strong execution overall (the bail handstand is an adventure in crazy legs, but otherwise the errors were small). In a matter of seconds she graduated from the also-ran category to the “Could she go to Worlds?” category. The US is always looking for adequate bars workers, but it’s still difficult to make teams with just one asset event. If she’s going to make Worlds for this bars routine, she’ll have to show major consistency—hitting every time at Championships and selection camp with scores at this same level. On a six-member Worlds team, there’s more room to include a one-event gymnast than on a five-member Olympic team, but still, you don’t get to perform at major competitions as a one-eventer unless it’s a guaranteed huge score every single time (case study: Li, Anna). Work to be done for her still. 

Another of our interesting showdowns at Championships should be between Locklear and Kocian on bars. Kocian’s excellent routine and score at Classic got overshadowed by Locklear’s even better showing, but she certainly showed potential as a bars option as well. The biggest problem for Kocian was her subsequent injury, which of course happened because she’s injured every two seconds. You’ll fit in nicely at UCLA. You and Peng can start a club. It’s conceivable that both Kocian and Locklear could be on a Worlds team together (it would be a very lovely, but probably impractical, team), but since they basically bring the same things to the table—though Kocian’s AA possibility helps her more—they may be fighting it out for the same spot, going back-and-forth with bars routines during the competition. Fun fun fun.

The big wildcard here is Brenna Dowell. She had a bars-tastrophe at Classic, and I think we can all agree she probably shouldn’t have competed in the first place. She wasn’t mentally/physically ready to do that routine. But lost in that disaster was her attempt at a D-score somewhere in the vicinity of 6.8, which is rather huge. If Dowell is going to make major teams over the next couple years, she’ll have to force her way onto them by making it impossible not to take her. You do that with huge difficulty. Even with inevitable execution issues, a 6.8 D-score is high enough to withstand some of that and still end up with a big score. 

Ross will be expected to do bars at Worlds, but we should also factor in Biles as a potential option in a team final. Bars is her lowest-scoring event, but she can definitely be a Shawn Johnson there and go up first with a clean, usable routine. The US will have to bring someone else with a 15 to stay close to the better bars teams, but they won’t necessarily have to take two if Martha and her Happy Little Elves feel comfortable using Biles in addition to Ross. Much like how the vault contenders have to prove they are multiple tenths more useful than Ross, these bars contenders have to prove they’re multiple tenths better than Biles. Otherwise, you’d just use Simone and make things easy. 

BEAM

Of the four events, beam was the most straightforward at Classic. Biles and Ross both hit solid routines, and Gowey was just a tad behind them with lovely work. Gowey is basically a fully rotated and controlled 3/1 dismount away from scoring with the other two. She’s getting there. Beyond those three, a few others were fine yet unremarkable for low 14s, but Biles, Ross, and Gowey were the standouts and seem the clear top three beamers for the moment. Though moments change quickly.  

Kocian is another with the potential to score well on beam, even though she had a fall and a couple other wobbles at Classic. She isn’t showing the same difficulty as Gowey, but she doesn’t give much away on her execution of individual skills. The same is true of Baumann, but at the risk of being too NBC, Baumann’s stock definitely dropped at Classic. She didn’t score well enough on beam to stand out (lower than Locklear and the same as Skinner), and she had a slightly hilarious fall on FX while trying to get back onto the floor after going OOB. We also have Peyton Ernst hanging around who can do very well here, but she has been lost in the shuffle now that’s she’s injured. When healthy, she’d be a candidate for high 14s.

If no one’s rivaling Gowey for that third beam position, it should be smooth sailing for her, even if the Amanar doesn’t come together. 

FLOOR

Did anyone else have the feeling during Classic that floor just got weird? I had been taking floor for granted since it’s the US and floor, but suddenly the landscape on this event became Simone Biles and tumbleweeds. Was it just because Biles is so much better than everyone else that they all looked bleak by comparison, or is there really a gap that needs to be filled?

Ross was second at Classic with a 14.600 with her upgraded routine, which is a really good score for her, but the scenario here is almost identical to vault. Ross should be the baseline floor worker, the one who can record a strong score but whom the floor specialists need to beat comfortably if they are to call themselves floor specialists. Do those people exist? Skinner is supposed to be the main one, but she was clearly performing a routine at Classic that she did not have the endurance to complete. She scored 1.200 lower than Ross, so even if you give her back 1.000 for the fall, she’s still coming in below Ross. Once again, she has a lot to prove.

I’m somewhat at a loss on this event. If it were Worlds right now, who would you put up on floor in team finals? One of these 6.0+ difficulty people needs to show up scoring something in the high 14s at Championships to make that decision clearer.

Gowey has tremendous potential on floor, and I’d love to see her emerge as a standout, but her composition concerns me with that 3.5 and the 3/1 in the same routine. Terrifying, especially since her 3.5 is more like a 3.2. She’s going for big difficulty (as high as 6.1?) but got a 5.6 at Classic. The US needs more advantage on floor than a 5.6. That’s a China D-score. Until your team has bars like Huang and beam like Bai, you don’t get to get away with a 5.6 on floor. 

Maggie Nichols was third at Classic with a 14.300, right around Hundley and Gowey with similar low 14s, but right now she’s in the “You’ll be a great alternate” position of death because she can put up a solid score on every event but doesn’t scream her necessity anywhere. No one is saying, “You have to use Nichols” on any event, which is her downfall.

ALL-AROUND

As we knew before Classic and really knew after Classic, the all-around in the US right now is a one-Biles race. She’s the star and would likely have to fall a minimum of three times, if not four, over the two-day competition at Championships to be passed by Ross. That’s why the race for the Worlds team is the much more compelling topic for the US women right now. For anything other than “2014 US Champion Simone Biles” to happen, it would have to be an ugly meet.

The interesting thing about Kyla Ross is that she’s currently sixth in the total difficulty race, but even if Dowell and Ernst suddenly show up with their all-around boots on at some point, Ross proved with her cleanliness and consistency at Classic that she’s still the reigning #2. No one else came close to her. Like Biles, it would appear that Ross would have to have an inner-ear-infection number of falls to relinquish that spot to the Gowey types, which seems unlikely. 

Fun with Numbers, P&G Championships

That Was Good? The Execution of All Things

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Everyone’s favorite avuncular analyst and UTRS expert (so, gymnecologist?) recently recalled a post comparing execution scores between the US and international judges that I wrote in June and then promptly forgot about. What, am I supposed to remember everything I say?

Basically, it amounts to the idea that we often think that international judging is some paragon of strictness that would never be as lax and charitable as the US judges, but over the last few years the international judges have been within a believable range with the national judges in execution scores. So, I began to wonder if that will continue this year and if the World judges will mimic what we have seen so far in 2013, which brings us to an analysis of execution scores at this year’s Nationals.

You probably had a lot of thoughts during last weekend’s P&G Championships, ranging from “Hey, fewer of these hairstyles look like shanty towns” to “Hey, that’s not a switch 1/2” to “Hey, so did Nastia kill Elfi?” and all of them are completely understandable. I bet you weren’t thinking, “Hey, this is some historically excellent execution.” But you know who was thinking that? The judges. Yeah. Deal with it.

The average execution score across the whole senior competition was an 8.515 this year. Guess what that’s higher than? 2012 Nationals. And 2011 Nationals. And 2010 Nationals. And 2009 Nationals. In fact, the only recent competition that beats that number is 2012 Olympic Trials, which is to be expected. Trials should contain only the very best athletes at the peak of their Olympic preparation and not these barely qualified, happy to be there types who are getting 8.1s for hit routines. 

Let’s also take a deeper look by event. (Numbers in parentheses indicate rank)

Aside from sucking the light fantastic on bars (and being the worst bars year in the United States is quite an accomplishment), 2013 Nationals saw remarkably high execution scores compared to recent competitions. The vault scores in particular are interesting. The vaults this year were okay, but two and three tenths better than recent years? Really? Would the new code alone justify such a bump?

It should be noted that I included all routines in these averages, even calamities in the 6s, which occurred at least a few times in every competition. But lest you think the other years are being dragged down misleadingly by falls, the differences exist quite clearly at the top of the scoring range. Let’s take beam as an example. In 2013, 18% of beam routines received an execution score in the 9s. Compare that to 9.5% in 2012 (Nationals), 10% in 2011, 5% in 2010, and 16% in 2009 (the only really comparable year). Is this truly the best beam group we’ve seen in the last five years? I don’t think so.

So, what’s up? Why are these execution scores significantly higher than in other years, since I think we can all agree that the standard of performance was not necessarily higher than in, say, 2011 when the average execution was over .250 lower. This is normally the part where I would provide conclusions, but I don’t have an answer to the question. I’m just compiling the data and inviting analysis. I’m all Tycho Brahe up in this piece. I’m legitimately curious as to why this is.

As mentioned, we have a new code, so we can certainly expect the evaluation of routines to change, as it always does. However, the major changes to the code came in the D-Score department. Were there enough significant changes to execution evaluation to account for these multiple-tenth increases in execution average? Have the judges been instructed to make a point of going softer this year across the events, or did it just happen?

And how will this increase affect the comparison between US and World evaluation that has become rather consistent?

Clearly, I have a lot of questions.