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2017 versus 2016: A Beam Comparison Part Deux

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Welcome to the second edition of 2017 beam treatments. Following up on the first post, here are a few more comparisons of beam D scores to see how the intended 2016 D measures up to what the routine would be given under the 2017-2020 code, featuring a few gymnasts that you asked for and a few others that I think are interesting.

Let’s start with Ragan Smith. I’ll use the Patterson version of her routine since I assume that perfecting it will be the aim for 2017.

Ragan Smith
2016 2017
Double wolf turn – D Double wolf turn – D
Switch + straddle – C+A Switch + straddle – C+A
Bhs + layout – B+E = 0.1 CV Bhs + layout – B+E = 0.1 CV
Full twisting back tuck – F Full twisting back tuck – F
Punch front + sissone – D+A = 0.1 CV Punch front + sissone – D+A
Aerial + pike jump – D+A = 0.1 CV Aerial + pike jump – D+A
Sheep – D Sheep – C
Bhs + bhs + Patterson – B+B+G = 0.1 CV Bhs + bhs + Patterson – B+B+G = 0.3 CV
CR – 2.5 CR – 2.0
Acro – GFEDD – 2.6 Acro – GFEDD – 2.6
Dance – DDC – 1.1 Dance – DCC – 1.0
CV – 0.4 CV – 0.4
Total D – 6.6 Total D – 6.0

The value of the Patterson combination is quite critical in making up for the lost CV from those D+A connections. With the Patterson, the only real hit Smith’s routine takes is from the downgrade of the sheep jump. Without the Patterson, however, her 2017 D score would be just 5.6, which won’t be all that competitive.

Based on what I’m seeing in these D scores, a difficulty in the lowish 6s is about what the top beam gymnasts should be aiming for in 2017. (Later in the quad, expect scores to go higher as coaches learn how to work the new CV/copy the more inventive countries.) A lot of top beamers are looking at 5.8s for their current routines, but most of those 5.8s can be reorganized with minimal pain to get another couple tenths. Continue reading 2017 versus 2016: A Beam Comparison Part Deux →

Olympics

Olympic Preview — Team Russia

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So this is happening now. Officially.

The IOC has finally deigned to deliver its spineless, toothless, lots-of-other-things-less message on Russia that if you conduct an expansive, multi-sport, state-sponsored program to cheat, subvert doping regulations, and actively undermine the ideals of the Olympics…it will work out mostly fine for you in the end. Go have fun in Rio, you crazy kids.

In its infinite wisdom, the IOC put its foot down to say that the buck stops…26 other places that aren’t here BEST FRIENDS AGAIN?!?!?!?!

At least we can keep ourselves warm at night by snuggling up with the silver lining to all of this, that we get to see the Russian gymnasts at the Olympics. Phew. Mustafina makes it all better.

The depressing part of this whole ordeal for the Russian gymnasts is how much they have been let down by their country. We’ll never actually know for sure, but the gymnasts—female gymnasts especially—probably are innocents in all of this. Still, every one of their accomplishments in Rio (let’s hope there are some, he says nervously eyeing a German hospital) will be tainted by the bad name their sports officials and athlete peers have given Russian sport. Sadly, that’s the kind of taint that can’t be switched out through a hole in the wall. You think the headline would be Spiridonova Wins Bars Gold? No. That Cheating Russian Cheater Wins Bars Gold.

But enough of that nonsense. (Actually, the real tragedy here is that I’ve been forced to talk about things that aren’t gymnastics for multiple paragraphs. I’m the victim.) To the sports part!

Russia has been looking the normal amount of in-several-pieces-on-the-floor heading into these Olympics, woefully absent the talents of Komova and Afanasyeva that could have rendered this a very special team. Still, a group able to wheel this many jewel-encrusted, medal-worthy routines out there should be able—and be expected—to medal barring a case of 2015-itis. Much will depend on which Mustafina shows up, but come on. It’s Mustafina. She’ll pull it together.

Team
Angelina Melnikova – 2016 Russian champion and (unofficial) European AA champion, young enough to still have hopes and dreams, will have to do a lot of the heavy lifting
Aliya Mustafina – 4 Olympic medals, 11 World medals, defending Olympic bars champion, hero, role model, regal bird of prey
Maria Paseka – 2015 vault champion, world record for Amanar improvement in a single quad, bee farm
Daria Spiridonova – 2015 bars champion, bars, bars, bars, bars, bars, please don’t make me do the others, bars, bars, bars, bars
Seda Tutkhalyan – 2014 Youth Olympics champion, is going to have to do beam, light the candles, we still believe in you

Projected Olympic Lineups
Vault – (Tutkhalyan) Melnikova, Mustafina, Paseka
Bars – (Paseka) Melnikova, Mustafina, Spiridonova
Beam – (Spiridonova), Tutkhalyan, Melnikova, Mustafina
Floor – (Mop with a bucket for a head), Mustafina, Tutkhalyan, Melnikova

I guess the expectation should be that Spiridonova will have to dawdle her way through a floor routine in qualification since Paseka didn’t do floor at Russian Cup. As for bars, Paseka has been much stronger there this quad, which is why I have her in the qualification spot, but I’d love to see Tutkhalyan get a chance at the AA.

The presumed top all-arounders will be Melnikova and Mustafina, but part of me would live for the oft-dismissed and slighted Seda going full Raisman on one of them in qualification to get a spot in the final. That actually may be the best argument for why Tutkhalyan won’t do bars in qualification. If Valentina, Flotsam, and Jetsam plan on Melnikova and Mustafina in the AA, they may not want to give Tutkhalyan a chance to snatch one of their spots. Continue reading Olympic Preview — Team Russia →

Meet Recap

Euros 2016: Aliya Hits When Aliya Wants

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European Championships – Senior women’s qualification

-In qualification, Great Britain edged Russia by a mere tenth to advance to the team final in 1st place. I have to say I’m a bit surprised it ended up being as close as it was given the various exhumed corpses Russia was forced to prop up with broomsticks, put some lipstick and eyelashes on, and throw onto the apparatuses.At the same time, GB did not have Queen of Varna Ellie Downie competing bars or beam, didn’t get the necessary bars score from Ruby Harrold, and had to count a beam fall from Fragapane on her exact-sphere with a full twist. Is “frightened armadillo ball” one of the acro shapes?

-Team GB will expect to do a bit better on bars and beam in the team final but did dominate floor, outscoring all the other teams by several billion points and not looking like they were about to die with every turn. Fragapane and Harrold showed quite impressive control in tumbling, and Downie scored well enough to get into the floor final in spite of a couple minorly iffy landings and going OOB on her Flying Dos Santos. On floor, pretty much every other team was going, “1 1/3 Y spin, stumble, CREDIT PLEASE????” and the judges were going, “No…”

-Russia also suffered a fall on beam when Tutkhalyan came off on her full, causing Valentina to pull out her wand and blast Seda’s name off the Black family tapestry once and for all. Russia did come back with some untouchable bars routines to close the gap with Great Britain, and in a bit of a surprise there, Mustafina and Melnikova beat Spiridonova, two-perring her out of her bars final and not helping Spiridonova’s Olympic team chances even a little bit.

-Now, let’s talk about Mustafina. In typical Aliya fashion, she appeared at podium training earlier in the week looking like she has been Anastasia Romanov this whole time and just emerged from 100 years spent living in a series of underground tunnels. She definitely had all the plagues and might have been a baby opossum in a leotard. Continue reading Euros 2016: Aliya Hits When Aliya Wants →