Watch out for the Germans. (I would, at this point, like credit for refraining from any and all World War II jokes for the entirety of this preview. Thank you.)

Germany hasn’t made a team final in approximately 186,000 years (it’s 5), but the squad the Germans will bring to Rio looks primed to recapture the nostalgic glory of those bygone, black-and-white era gymnasts like Seitz and Bui and Chusoviti…oh wait that’s still now.

Excitement over Germany’s potential has built lately following a team score of 174.25 in Chemnitz, coming directly after a trials performance from the five team members that would have translated to a 175.763 team score, both numbers good enough for bronze at last year’s world championship.

That’s an unrealistic expectation for this German side (those trials scores in particular had a hefty dose Laurie-Hernandez-domestically to them). Germany is going to come in several rungs behind the Russian and British teams and would need to root for meltdowns, but the idea of finally returning to an Olympic team final and knocking out a perennial qualifier is quite reasonable, verging on expected, given the scoring potential this team has shown.

Team
Tabea Alt – 2016 Test Event AA bronze, beam split leaps for days, side aerial + loso + loso, that American Cup performance was not very representative
Kim Bui – Two-time German champion, back from the dead to do bars but also all the events, Bhardwajs like Peng
Pauline Schaefer – The Sch- one who’s good at beam, 2015 world beam bronze, did that physically preposterous side somi 1/2 that you still don’t understand
Sophie Scheder – The Sch- one who’s good at bars, 2016 German champion, toe pointing you into the grave, dismounted into a tub of leg anesthesia in the 2015 bars final
Elisabeth Seitz – Billion-time German champion, still alive, bars looks better than ever, still miss the def, and the shap 1/1

Project Olympic Lineups
Of all the countries, Germany has the most difficult lineups to pin down and the most challenging and numerous decisions to make regarding who will compete each event. The team basically has five even-steven AAers who could finish in any order on any given day. Who does the AA in qualification? We’ll see how it plays out. This is what I would do.

Vault – (Seitz) Scheder, Schaefer, Alt
Bars – (Alt), Bui, Scheder, Seitz
Beam – (Seitz) Scheder, Alt, Schaefer
Floor – (Scheder), Alt, Bui, Schaefer

I have Alt and Scheder as the only two AAers with this lineup, Scheder as the national champion and Alt as the one with the biggest upside. The trouble is that on most events, the 4th and 5th gymnasts are so even that they’re interchangeable, giving rise to a number of different, equally viable combinations.

I don’t have Bui on beam because I think she has the lowest scoring potential, but she could very easily replace Seitz on beam and vault to go into the lineup as a third AAer. Conversely, Seitz could stay on vault and beam and slip in on floor as well to get into the AA, though I think Scheder probably gets that floor spot over Seitz so that she can do AA herself.

See, isn’t it really clear and obvious?

Floor is the toughest lineup to settle on because, under normal circumstances, you’d definitely want Alt’s routine in there. Her last two floor scores, however, have been 12.766 and 12.800. That could mean she’s the one who loses a spot to Seitz since Seitz finished ahead of her at both trials and Chemnitz. I’d still give Alt a shot at the AA, but those floor scores may be cause for rethinking.  Continue reading Olympic Preview – Team Germany →