Tag Archives: Stanford

Season Preview

#8 Stanford Preview

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Roster
Chuang, Melissa – Senior – VT, FX
Daum, Rachel – Junior – VT, BB, FX
Fitzgerald, Taryn – Freshman
Frowein, Jenna – Senior – FX
Hoffman, Hailee – Freshman
Hoffman, Nicole – Freshman
Hong, Ivana – Senior – VT, UB, BB (FX legs permitting?)
Maxwell, Dare – Freshman
McNair, Danielle – Junior – VT, UB
McNair, Nicolette – Junior – VT, UB, BB (hopefully FX this time)
Price, Elizabeth – Sophomore – VT, UB, BB, FX
Rice, Taylor – Senior – VT, UB, BB, FX
Spector, Haley – Junior – FX (possible backup BB)

Recent History
2015 – 5th
2014 – 9th
2013 – 12th
2012 – 4th
2011 – 15th
2010 – 4th

2016 Outlook
Last season, Stanford did usual Stanford things: Start horrifyingly, slowly improve throughout the season, and then smack everyone in the face with bars and beam pretty once nationals roll around. I wouldn’t put it past Stanford to do the same thing this year—with the Ivie/Ebee dynamic duo anything is possible—but without Shapiro, Vaculik, and Wing, the dynamic has shifted away from bars and beam to an extent, putting more pressure on vault and floor to be competitive scores. It will be interesting to see if the team can adjust. As always, the primary obstacle will be depth. There aren’t a lot of backups on these events, so everyone + 3 other people have to stay healthy all season long. This is a clear nationals team, unless there’s a real injury implosion, but Super Six will be a more challenging prospect this time around without some of those stars. And by stars, I mean Kristina Vaculik’s gienger, the true meaning of Christmas. Expect the usual game of “197 or 194” roulette.

Key Competitor
The rest of them. The first and second person in each lineup. We know Price can get 9.9s on every event. Hong can get 9.9s on every event she’s healthy enough to compete. Rice and Nicolette McNair can go 9.850+ on all their pieces. That’s an excellent foundation with Super Six-level scores (if it were four up, four count, Stanford would be among the favorites), but Stanford’s success will be determined by who is able to fill out the rest of the lineups. Are there at least two consistent 9.8+ scores per event coming from the likes of Daum, Chuang, Danielle McNair, Maxwell, Fitzgerald, and Spector? Those six gymnasts will determine Stanford’s fate this season. The Cardinal got twelve 9.9s in Super Six last year (and eight of them have returned this year). You know who else got twelve 9.9s? Florida. Every other school got fewer. The only thing holding this team back was the contingent of supporting scores. There’s even more pressure on them this year to be not a 9.6.

Vault

The new vault values shouldn’t be particularly devastating to Stanford, mostly because of a little gem named Elizabeth Price. She vaulted a full last season coming back from injury, and because there was no incentive to do more, but obviously she can do more difficulty than that in her sleep. She’s probably the best bet for #1 vaulter in the nation this year, and her weekly 9.9s will take a lot of pressure off the rest of the lineup. It will be worth watching who else pulls out a 1.5 this year, with Danielle McNair and Taryn Fitzgerald both capable of it, but to varying degrees of success. It’s not the sure scoring boon it is for Price, so we’ll see if it ends up being worth it. Still, the options exist to be worked on. It’s a shame Pauline Hanset missed out by a year. Maybe she would have actually been rewarded for her handspring pike 1/2 this year instead of consistently underscored. 

Rice and Nicolette McNair will also return to the lineup and should be able to continue scoring in the 9.8s. The critical factor in filling out this event will be the potential refreshing injury comebacks of Rachel Daum and Melissa Chuang. Back when they were healthy, in the late 60s, Chuang could go 9.800 and Daum could go 9.850. Daum actually had a very strong 1.5 back in JO/elite days as well. Having those two back would be magnificent for filling out the lineup with enough believable options to allow the team to take it easy with Ivana Hong as needed and not feel the pressure to shove her out there on vault every week. I can’t imagine they’d push Hong to vault more than a full at this point (because when hasn’t she suffered serious knee injuries on vault?), but she still has a glorious full that can be trotted later in the year for big scores. Ideally, she’d vault the whole year, but let’s be realistic with our Hong-leg expectations. Because of Price, this lineup should still get into the 49.2s with the occasional 49.3.

Bars

Bars should be the most…transformed event from last season because the team will no longer have Vaculik Gienger and Shapiro Toe Point to rely on to bolster the collection of 9.9s. Several 9.9s still exist (so the potential for high scores remains intact), but the problem is a fundamental lack of routines. By that, I mean there are exactly six of them. That makes it pretty easy to come up with a lineup but also puts the team in a really precarious position. No injuries, no falls, no margin whatsoever. Hong and Price are the go-to women, obviously, and are both supremely capable of scoring weekly 9.9s that will be necessary to protect against depth travesties. Nicolette McNair is also quite good on bars and should consistently be pecking around 9.9.

After that, hold onto your giant novelty cowboy hats because it could be a rough ride. Dare Maxwell is on the team now, and bars is both her best and most important event. Let’s hope she’s ready to go because her work is pretty and can save the day. Taylor Rice was in and out of the bars lineup last year, but she’ll need to be in every week this time around. When she hits, her routine is good for a 9.850, but she can also suffer from a chronic case of the fallsies. Similarly, Danielle McNair can be a worthwhile 9.850 on bars, but she lost her spot at the end of 2014 because of consecutive falls and didn’t get it back last season. Without Vaculik, Shapiro, and Wing around, they’ll both need to be consistently influential members of the lineup instead of just possibilities.

And then that’s pretty much it. Those are the six. The three other freshmen will probably be called upon to put together backup routines, but bars was a weakness for all of them in JO (like a 9.1-career-high kind of weakness). This coaching staff is famous for creating bars routines and greatly improving skills (watch Hong’s elite DLO, followed by her college DLO for evidence), and they’ll have to get to work this year to give the team real bars options given that there are only nine people listed on the team’s own roster as even potentially doing bars this season. When the main six compete, this could be a seriously 49.400 bars team. Three 9.900s and three 9.850s is completely doable on any old day. Let’s just hope it doesn’t end up being more 39.400 than 49.400.

Beam

As on bars, Price and Hong will lead the beam rotation with 9.9s. I say 9.9s. We all know Ivana Hong should be getting a 16 every time. Price is training double pike dismounts, which I usually question from a cynical scoring perspective just because it’s so tough to stick compared to the people who are like, “gainer full, 9.950, I’m the winner,” but with Ebee…sure. Why not? Do a layout full in. Because probably.

Stanford stands out for impressive and extended beam work that doesn’t give away the form nasties that many other teams do, meaning 9.900 is always an attainable goal for every member of the lineup. This year’s roster should be able to continue that tradition. Taylor Rice has really worked out her beam consistency over the last year or so after having to fight for her spot early in her Stanford career. Now she can be counted on as a total Solid Sandra. Nicolette McNair is the fourth and final returning stalwart from last season, though I’m less concerned about depth on beam than on bars because most people on a college team can throw together a beam routine if desperately needed (at least more than bars), even if it’s not their event. That may not even be necessary, however, because there are also comfortable options for the remaining spots that were not available last season. Rachel Daum should return to the lineup. I’ve always enjoyed her beam work and thought she should have scored higher than the mid-range 9.8s she was getting in 2014. Among the freshmen, Dare Maxwell should be able to put together something very Stanfordy, and Fitzgerald has a walkover to two feet, which is fun. I’d like to see that. Without Vaculik and Wing, this lineup may not be quite the same 49.550 IN SUPER SIX BITCHES, but 49.300 should remain an expected score.

Floor

Oh, Stanford on floor. Wherefore art thou getting 9.6s? For most teams, floor is the big event that can pad the meet total with a 49.4 to make it look relatively impressive even if it was a little 9.825 before that. For Stanford, floor is more of a nemesis to be slain than an asset to be used. Thankfully, Price and Rice exist to give Stanford two whole gymnasts who are 9.900-comfortable. Price can bring the smoothly, easily landed difficulty, and Rice is among those who can realistically and frequently get a 9.900 for a double pike routine, even if she doesn’t bust out her DLO. Also, if Taylor Rice doesn’t include the man-wipe in every floor routine she does this year, we’re rioting, agreed? Agreed. Taylor, you have been warned.

Haley Spector was also an extraordinarily necessary development on floor last season for 9.850s, competing in every meet and saving the team from falling into the clutches of the depth monster on more than one occasion. She’ll be back. Do we dare hope that Nicolette McNair is actually able to do floor this year? It was always one of her best events, if not her best, with a double arabian that could boost the team’s difficulty quotient, but she has been very missing on floor throughout her Stanford career. I’m not waiting at the altar for this routine; I’m just saying it would be nice to see at some point. Speaking of double arabians, Fitzgerald has one, and of the newbies, she seems the most likely to figure on floor. I haven’t mentioned the Hoffmans yet, who are shrouded with injury question marks, but if either of them is going to be a contributor, floor seems the most likely place. Though particularly important will be Daum and Chuang. It’s the same story as vault. They could make this lineup so much healthier and more complete with their 9.8s, giving the team a near panoply of options, which we don’t normally expect from Stanford on floor. A panoply that also includes Frowein, who competed last year for 9.7s but may not be needed this time if everything pans out.

The biggest difference between this year and last should be having Price all year long instead of rushing her back into the lineup at the very end so that floor isn’t horrifying. While it still may not be the big 49.4+ that other teams will boast, I like this floor lineup to improve on the 49.185 RQS from last season.

Season Preview

Freshman Notes: Florida, Utah, Stanford

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We’ve got a whole slew of new, optimistic faces ready to start their NCAA careers in a month and a half (lots of classes with 5 and 6 freshmen this year), so before they do that, let’s get to know the new meat and break down what they’ll bring to their teams—besides “such great enthusiasm and a beautiful competitive spirit,” thank you for your no help, coaches—and where they might contribute this year.

FLORIDA

The defending champs have certainly lost significant routines from Kytra Hunter and the Wang/Spicer 9.850 Preservation Committee after last season, but this is Florida and that happens every year. This new class is probably the second-strongest freshman group in the nation (because cut to LSU going, “wanna fight?”) and will be expected to maintain a similar team-scoring pace while missing very few beats, aside from the hole in the ceiling left by Kytra’s floor 10s.

It’s rare that one of the most anticipated freshmen in a season is a non-elite, but such was the level of Alicia Boren‘s annual dominance at JO nationals, winning her age group about a hundred years in a row. With most of the name-brand elites entering this season carrying Pulitzer-level injury histories, Boren looks to be among the more reliable bets for “impact freshman,” or whatever sportsball people say.

Vault and floor are a definite yes for Boren. She has a very comfortable 1.5 on vault, which is all the more valuable this season, and her floor tumbling is big, big, big. She anchored her JO floor routine with a full-in, which is a total “check me out, losers” move, and I love it. At this point, we should probably start a running tally of “SHE’S THE NEW KYTRA!!11” for the season, because it’s going to be all the time. We need a gymnastics-commentary swear jar for it. I hereby ban all further mentions.

Boren’s beam work will also have a definite place on the team, with her strong, secure acro elements and workable leaps. The main question mark as to her possible AA contribution will be bars since it’s the weaker event of her four. It’s not really a problem routine (she would compete bars for the majority of teams), but the releases are a little clunky and there’s some foot form. So, while she’s capable of putting up a usable bars routine, it will be more challenging to make the top 6 there. At the same time, her JO bars work is much stronger than McMurtry’s was, so there’s that. 9.950

Let’s move on to Peyton Ernst, the one you always think is a character from Make It Or Break It and then remember that she’s a real person. Ernst was an elite for a number of years, coming out of Texas (Bailie Key’s Broken) Dreams, and was legitimately in the conversation for an early-quad Worlds team before her case of Generalized Elite Injury Disorder set in. She has been a little witness protectiony ever since, so in some respects it will be a wait-and-see as to how much she’s able to recover those elite routines. But, with her previous elite skill set and well-rounded difficulty and quality across four events (DTY, shaposhi, DLO & double arabian on floor, strong dance elements), she would certainly contribute a big routine on any event in ideal health circumstances.

Ernst’s most important event will be beam (and that’s the one event we saw from her in the most recent training videos above). Remember when she showed up with that 6.3 elite beam routine and everyone went, “Is that a number?!?!?” We were so young then. Beam was the weakest event for the Gators last year (relative), and they haven’t really had that second sure beam 9.900 since Macko left (SHE’S THE NEW MACKO!!11…anyone? Anyone?). Ernst can be that with the right skill composition, of which she has many, many options.

Also of note, this isn’t much of a bars class (it’s the bad event for every newbie except Ernst), but the strong crop of returning bars routines means that won’t necessarily be a problem. Still, Ernst is the one who can make a real difference there.

Lacy Dagen looks to be another in that ever-growing line of strong Florida gymnasts who get  overshadowed by the bigger names but should still contend for a couple early lineup spots, depending on the general injury-scape for people like Ernst and the recovering Claire Boyce. There will be several open Wang/Spicer spots here and there, and everyone will basically have to arm-wrestle Ericha Fassbender to see who gets them. It could be a number of people. Dagen was a junior elite at the very end of the last quad and has a solid full on vault (along with about 10 other people on this roster) and showed a DLO on floor, and both of those will be assets for her.

http://www.gymnastike.org/embed/Mzk0NzU5NDY5?related=1&autoplay=false

Amanda Cheney and Ashley Hiller are the later additions to the team for this year, with Cheney excelling on beam (she also has a fine yfull and tumbling, but it’s mostly beam) with lovely line and presentation. As long as they get rid of her straddle 1/2 like yesterday, it could be a thing. Hiller was a vault standout as a JO gymnast, placing 2nd there in Senior D this year, as has some serious ups on her full.

UTAH
The Utes have quite a job to do this year if they’re to come anywhere close to reenacting last year’s 2nd-place. 12 out of 24 routines will now need replacing after the departures of Dabritz, Lothrop, Wilson, and Tutka. It’s basically the whole floor lineup.

This new class does not have the same big gymnastics and accomplished resumes of that departing group and will not be expected to replicate the same quality. As much onus will be on the sophomores like Partyka and Stover to show more routines this year to make up the lost scores, but realistically the scoring potential will not be as high. In contrast to last year, when the team had enough routines and depth to bring the new ones along slowly, these freshmen will be thrown into the fire and relied upon to do more because of just how many lineup gaps there are now.

Makenna Merrell has risen the JO ranks in the last year or so, ultimately finishing 2nd in her age group at Nationals this year. She possesses that “are you a person or a line segment?” look that everybody seems to love, especially on beam where she has an almost Nastia-circa-2003 thing going on in her movement choices (if you squint…and get drunk?).

But Megan, we’re going to have a sit down with her about wrists, right? Good. But, Merrell is an interesting one because with that look, you’d expect her to be solely bars and beam queen. That is where I expect to see her biggest contribution—she should absolutely do beam because she has good extension through her loso series and the girl can hit a split—but she also has some unexpected difficulty on vault and floor, which have yielded the majority of her best scores in JO and account for her big recent AA results.

Merrell has a 1.5 on vault and a piked full-in on floor, which is higher difficulty than anyone else in this class, though I’m not quite sold yet. The 1.5 can sometimes be a little short and fragile and is the kind of vault that probably would have been downgraded to a full in previous seasons, but this year it will be viewed as an asset and they may work harder to make it a thing. Watch that space. She’s the definite possibility as an AAer in this class.

But most importantly, Merrell is from All-American gymnastics, and the biggest thing I learned is that her gym has a meet called “All American Hot & Ready,” which is absolutely unacceptable. Also, please do not google “all american hot and ready.”

Following much “which school are you going to?” and a prolonged multi-year case of the brokens, the Wogette Sabrina Schwab ended up at Utah once UCLA was like, “I don’t know her…” If she emerges as a big contributor, expect a lot of “we didn’t give up on her like certain other schools…” Or at least I hope so. Post-TV-meet shade is one of my favorite types of shade. I’m giving Megan a lot of assignments so far.

Schwab is expected to be primarily bars and beam and contribute significantly there. It makes sense because she has definite WOGA bars, complete with lovely toe point and handstands and some slight WOGAtkatchev-itis to balance it out. Back in the day when she was doing junior elite, she also showed an enjoyable floor routine featuring a legit 3/1, so I’ll be hoping to see her on more than just bars and beam at some point over the years if she’s able to get back, but her bars is by far the most important routines this year as they try to restock that lineup post-Dabritz auto-10. They’ll need something serious from her.

Like many of her incoming peers, Shannon McNatt was a junior elite for a second in 2012. Of particular note is her Omelianchik on vault, which is the routine we’re most likely to see.

http://www.gymnastike.org/embed/Mzk5NzQyNzE1?related=1&autoplay=false

It’s a strong vault, she has been doing it for a while, and it’s still valued out of a 10, which shoots her up the vault list quite a few places. Having an Omelianchik is a much bigger asset now when the majority of gymnasts are coming in doing perfectly OK fulls that start from 9.950. I’m not sold on the other events yet, but she has the passes on floor.  

With the floor lineup so depleted, Utah will be looking for people to emerge with usable work there, even if they’re not the “ALL THE E PASSES” routines of a couple years ago. Erika Muhaw is one of those options. She’s another of the clean-high-double-pike brigade, but she also shows solid dance elements with her straddle work and could put together a routine that’s relatively free from deductions. It’s a similar story on beam. She’s a total Christine Still “efficient little gymNAST.”  

STANFORD
Stanford’s freshman class this year is sort of [scene missing], which is fitting because that whole program is like, “Shhhh, gymnastics is a secret.” Stanford gymnastics is like one of those pop-up restaurants that’s only open one Thursday every year and no one knows when it’s going to be or who’s doing it, and the only dish is a wicker chest of octopus foam. Who’s healthy enough to compete this year? We’ll find out in January! Let’s hope it’s more than 4 people this time.

Stanford’s great postseason last year was built on gorgeous bars and beam routines, so the loss of Shapiro and Vaculik is slightly troubling, mostly emotionally because how are we going to survive now? Just by watching Vaculik Gienger on youtube and then crying ourselves to sleep, like usual?  It’s not wholly troubling because the Ebee/Ivie dynamic duo should still be getting 9.9s, but it will be tough to keep the same pace since this new group doesn’t really excel on bars. That’s why Dare Maxwell will be important. She’s the one who could. In breaking news, she still does gymnastics and has great toe point along with a Ray, which should be able to be molded into something excellent by the Stanford bars machine if she stays healthy.

But as we know, this team is always in need of vault and floor routines so that they actually have 6 of them, which is where Taryn Fitzgerald comes in. She has a pretty solid full on vault (also has done a 1.5, but I’m thinking it should be a full) and a double arabian on floor at times, so that’s basically a golden ticket. Get in those lineups.

http://www.gymnastike.org/embed/ODM3NzQyODIx?related=1&autoplay=false

The biggest thing to know about Hailee Hoffman and Nicole Hoffman is that they’re not related, which is blowing my mind. I already have enough trouble with the McNairs, and at least they have the common decency to be twins. Nicole has solid, contained form in a relatively low-difficulty repertoire across most of the events. She could do a clean floor for them. As for Hailee, she has posted her best scores on vault and floor in JO, though I’ve seen very little from her.