The men’s trials probably should have been the culmination of this competition since nothing will match the tension and anticipation of last night, what with the women still in the larval stage of selecting a team and having an overall less controversial and fraught process than the men.
In further knife-made-of-lemon-juice news, the men’s alternates have been announced as Whittenburg, Leyva, and Modi, while Paul Ruggeri was given a sack of old rags and Mattie Larson’s phone number. It’s probably the right choice for alternates because someone needed to be pommel horse. Otherwise, if Naddour goes down…what would you even do? Put a basket of wishes first up in the team final? Because of pommel horse, Modi may actually be the most likely to go in if there’s an injury in a Sasha Artemev-type situation. Whittenburg is the backup for Dalton and Leyva is the backup for Brooks, but if anyone else goes down, horse may be the biggest worry.
The junior women also finished up competition today with Maile O’Keefe remaining the one who hits her routines for the win. McCusker held on for second in spite of a bars hrmmm, and Perea improved on her day 1 beam to claim third. Morgan Hurd had a bad one on beam and floor to drop to fifth, but impressing were both of the Buckeyes, Shania Adams on bars and Shilese Jones on vault and floor, and Trinity Thomas, who is going to be a thing in a couple years. Watching Thomas in this meet felt like watching the part of the fluff piece where they show old footage of the star gymnast back when she was young. This is the meet they’ll use.
Now, it’s time for the senior women. There’s not a ton of urgency in today’s performances. There’s the continuing Koclear battle of course, and Douglas probably needs a comeback score just to get the vultures off her back (though I maintain she didn’t really do anything to jeopardize her place on night one), but Biles, Raisman, and Hernandez look right on track and Nichols’ routines of consequence will be vault and floor at trials, not bars and beam here.
Still, national championship. Olympic year. Crazy-ass Trautwig comments. There’s a lot to play for. Get ready.
Planning! First up in the first rotation are Douglas on bars, Nichols on beam, and Raisman on floor! All at the same time! Dear USAGym, no one would mind if you unprofessionally fudged the rotation order to be conducive to TV. Better than forcing people to hold for 805 minutes.
THERE IS NO NEXT YEAR.
One of the side stories I’m interested in is Hundley Alternate Watch. She’s in 6th heading into today, and while she’s on the outside compared to people like Smith and Skinner getting that other alternate spot, it could happen.
“Simone Biles is next.” Welcome to 2016. It’s going to be like this a lot.
I’m so disappointed in the lack of fluff in this national championship. Like NONE.
These colors are better for everyone. Also, Simone’s four in a row is not unprecedented. NBC cares zero.
WATCHFUL EYES. WATCHFUL CHIN. WATCHFUL FINGER NECK PINCH.
Aly’s leo = no me gusta. Grandmother’s rosewater.
“Gabby sucks, Nastia. Tell me how much she sucks. Is she the suckiest?” Go barf in a ditch, Al.
“Some people were starting to question things.” You TIM. YOU were starting to question things.
WATCHFUL EYES #2.
Douglas – UB – inbar full to piked tkatchev to pak, small leg break on pak and one minorly short hs – GAH – wonkifies her endo, leg drops, corrects – DAMN – DLO is a little piked but fine – the vultures with gather. Nastia is SO not giving her credit for that endo.
Kittia comes over to Gabby to say, “Arms. Arms. Arms. Arms.”
Nichols – BB – 2.5 wolf – walkover to a lovely sissone and split – secure side somi – heinous wolf to front tuck, please get rid of that – larger check on side aerial, bend and sway – low front leg on switch ring but ring position was fine – bend correction on loso series – switch – step back on double pike, improvement.
Martha’s Maggie answer is E) Not enough information provided to solve the problem.
14.500 for Douglas on bars. NOT HELPFUL.
They are just RAVENOUS to show that old Raisman parent footage. In other news, Lynn Raisman is my spirit animal.
Raisman – FX – solid first pass, stuck layout, not close to OOB, very good – rushes through double L but will probably get credit – Dos Santos to a fake horizontal stag – small hop on DLO – these switch leaps are rushed and quite quite short – small hop on double pike –
They were SOOO waiting for the Raisman parents to do something. They had a camera and everything. And then it was just sort of normal. Al is PISSSSSSED at them.
15.700 for Raisman with a 9.100 E. Oh, nationals.
Kocian – UB – inabrs full to inbar shap connected – into pak to shap half – her best rhythm of the summer so far – slightly bent elbows catching jaeger – stalder full to stuck tuck full. Very good. That will help her case a lot. BIG Laurent hug. Full strength Laurent hug.
15.700 for Kocian. Same as Classic, though this one was better.
Hernandez – VT – DTY – not much distance, a little leg break, step back. Fine, not amazing. 14.800.
OH THANK GOD THE GREEN TRIANGLES. HOW ELSE WOULD I HAVE UNDERSTOOD???
Sinner goes 14.900 on floor for the routine that shall not be seen.
How many times Alyssa? Sadly, once. One hit bars routine.
OHHHH, they’re trying to correct themselves about Joan Moore. Like a shred national championship doesn’t count now? Sure. Sure. Whatever.
Biles – FX – DLO full no trouble – Biles to sissone, secure and easy – a bit of a hop forward on her double double, unlike the usual stick – this music is still in no way interesting to me (it’s very “on hold music for a travel agency offering deals to Hawaii”- hop back on full in. Will probably just be a casual 16.
Everyone can’t wait to congratulate Simone. “I’M THE ONE WHO’S HER BEST FRIEND GUYS. I’M LIKE SECOND SIMONE.”
16.050 for Simone. Average.
Schild 12.700 on floor. She was borderline for a trials spot for a while, but she hasn’t had a great meet and is making it easy to cut her.
I feel like there are way too many question marks on this team-building page. I don’t have that many question marks. Like, you know, Laurie. BUT SHOULD SHE DO BEAMMM??? (Yes.)
Skimmer – VT – starting with Cheng – IT WAS TIM’S IDEA YOU GUYS – one-armed Mykky – a little low, lunge back, a bit of piking and knee bend – 15.250
Second vault – Amanar with smallish hop to the side. Now, that will score better than the Cheng.
Al got some feedback on the beads. inbars, falls on Ricna.
Al is really pissy about the BEADSSSSSSS. BUT WHERE DID ANDREA GET THE BEADSSSS? Chris is making sure she knows what a disappointment she is. Kim is like, “Crap, 2020 here we come.”
But does Simone have any BEADDDDDDDDSSS???
Biles – VT – small hop forward on 2.5. Slacking. Must do better. 16.200. 9.900 E score. Cheng follows with a larger hop back – 15.800 for the Cheng it looks like.
Baumann – BB – excellent arabian – walkover to sissone, pretty – one loso in her series – switch and switch 1/2 have nice position, loses her toes on the switch half, but she hits 180, check on switch ring again with minor hip bend – onodi to wolf is quite nice – strong side aerial to split – chest down double pike .3 step back. Half Laurent hug.
Hernandez – UB – stalder full – legs and late – shap to tkatchev – piked ricna – ricna to pak, pulling it back together after a little shakiness early – hop back on tuck full. Not her strongest, but fine.
I like that Nastia is fact-checking some of Tim’s fangirling tonight and identifying the deductions. That’s a good duty for her and will make her less worthless.
15.150 for Hernandez. 14.700 for Baumann. Not memorable for either.
Raisman – VT – off to the side on 2.5 with a lunge forward this time, usual legs. A few more deductions than the last couple times, what with being off to the side more than she should be. Aly thinks it’s good. Mihai’s like, “OK…”
15.500 for Raisman. The whiskey is out tonight. Still, it was a good one. She’s staying comfortably better than Skinner.
Apparently I’m way behind everyone. And missed Dougie’s beam entirely thanks to commercials. Awesome. I’m thrilled. This is super great in every way. Apparently it was magical. At least, I hear Spanny screaming from here, so that’s usually a clue.
15.050 for Douglas. No trouble there. The Raisman and Hernandez beam comparisons will be more interesting today.
“Orozco cried! YES YES YES YES YES! We’re not emotion vultures!!!!!!!!!!! We’re not reveling with joy in the fact that John Orozco’s mom died because it makes for drama and emotions and tears!!!!!! You won’t BELIEVE how much he cried about his mom. Delicious. PLEASE LET THIS GO VIRAL DEAD MOM.”
“The women are going to announce their team just the same way. IS SOMEONE GOING TO DEAD MOM CRY PLEASEEEEEE?” – Al.
Locklear – UB – inbar full to inbar shap to pak to shap to bail – very well connected, great leg form – very clean jaeger – didn’t stick, small step forward, will be another big score. This routine is more reliably executed than Kocian’s. Kocian has the higher D and four events.
15.700 for Locklear. Same as Kocian. We get to see Locklear gripping instead of Kocian on floor YAY FUN.
Hernandez – BB – “She’s actually very good on this event.” Actually? It’s literally her event. Step forward on front pike – lovely leaps – very secure two loso series – check on sheep, a bit shakier than the first day, not doing all her connections? – front tuck and side aerial are both strong – another check on switch 1/2 – loverly switch ring – check down double pike hop forward. Still fine.
Kocian got a 14.600 on floor. SO GLAD WE DIDN’T SEE IT.
Biles – UB – small pause weiler half – break rhythm a little but everything else is her usual – sticks tuck full – fine.
Hernandez still gets 15.300 on beam. It was weaker than her other 15.300s, though. BUT DOESN’T SHE GET UNDERSCORED???
14.750 for Biles, her weakest score of the year.
Looks like Baumann had a big floor OOB for 13.850.
Dowell gets 12.500 on beam. Will she make trials?
Douglas – FX – “People have been saying.” You. You have been saying. double arabian to fake stag, solid – yikers, does a fine full in but tries to do the connection into back tuck and back tucks OOB – at least the Ferrari leap is gone? – Double Y was fine – heel drops on double L again, as on night 1 and PT – fine double pike, small hop back. double tuck to a lowly low split jump – should have just left out the back tuck out of the full –
Raisman – UB – toe full – shap to tkatchev – jaeger – bail to stalkder full to shoot, a little close on the shoot – hop in place on double front – nothing that wasn’t built in.
14.450 for Douglas. Just the .1 for OOB, one foot, not landing OOB.
Smith – BB – double wolf – strong switch to straddle – quite nice on the bhs layout – check and hip on back with a full but stays together – front tuck to sissone, a little bouncy – walkover to pike jump, great – secure sheep – near stick on the Patterson, small slide –
“A strange trip around the floor for her.” She went out of bounds. OMG SO STRANGE.
Yes, I accidentally wrote strip instead of trip. Don’t worry about it.
Why are the Andre Agassi/Steffi Graf Longines commercials always vaguely kidnappy?
Shawn interview. She got married and wrote a book. “Great memories right Nastia.” “Snapping 50 pencils.”
HJernandez – FX – hop back on DLO – double arabian to stag, very secure – a little bouncy on split 1.5 – front lay to front 2/1 to front tuck – good position on switch ring – sticks double tuck. That works.
Tim just threw his panties. As did everyone. 14.800. Same as the first day. Nastia also telling the same story as the first day.
Douglas – VT – DTY, strong form, hop back, will score well, pretty excellent other than the hop. “Alright…big hop back.” They really have the spikes in their pants about Gabby this weekend.
Biles – BB – Oh yeah, just a Simone beam too – almost does that accidental triple wolf she does sometimes but holds it – check on the barani again (still hate it) – larger break on two loso series, leg up – punch front to sissone – switch to switch 1/2, breaks connection into back pike – walkover to wolf is better – very short on tuck full with a larger lunge forward. She’ll be pissed about that. Not a good one for her. “My legs are just so dead.” “That’s OK.” “No it’s not. That was like the worst routine all week.” YES LOVE.
Well, Simone. You’re going to have to do this in qualification, TF, AA, and EF at the Olympics coming off a month-long hell camp, so work that out.
15.100 for Simone. Not good.
Nichols – UB – toe shap to pak is good but catches her foot and misses her connection to shap half, very very short hs out of hit – catches chap 1/2 – jaeger is fine – stuck DLO. Not good. No devastating for her because it’s not vault or trials.
Raisman – BB – front pike to wolf – front pike was a little low, worked well out of it to connect – secure on that layout – nice switch to back tuck – sissone to pike jump, legs apart – strong side aerial – switch 1/2 is usual – punch front to split – L tun to full turn, a little tight but fine – Patterson, completed easily but hop forward this time.
Aly: “I think we should tie again.” BUT WE WANT BLOOD.
15.300 for Raisman.
Laurie Hernandez is getting HUG REPLAYS now.
Skinner falls on front tuck mount on beam. Huge break on her back with a full, splits the beam in vag slam for .2 CV. split to wolf, the only skills she pauses before, the hardest ones for her. I feel like this routine is the CURE A BOOB sequel to STAB A BOOB. Hands down on tuck full dismount. Well, that was terrible.
Hugs for Skinner. Did Brenna just come up to her and say, “It’s OK, I had a horrible meet.” Oh, womp womp womp.
Locklear – BB – bhs loso is good – punch front solid – L turn is pretty but ended a little early, connects into full turn – large, large, large break with a big swim on side somi, just does stay on. Side aerial to splits – great leaps to back tuck – step back on tuck full.
Kocian gained a little by tying Locklear on bars this time and not almost dying on beam (we think). 14.150 for Locklear still. Kocian higher by .1. BUT SHAME ON ME FOR PRETENDING THESE ROUTINES MATTER FOR THEM. Neither would even do it in prelims.
Simone didn’t even win by 4 points. DISASTER.
Raisman is second over Hernandez. Not getting the tenths on bars hurt Hernandez in that race. Aly was just a steady little engine the whole time. Douglas comfortably 4th but not close to the others. Kocian stays 5th and Hundley stays 6th.
Andrea Douglas. Oh Al.
Laurie Hernandez interview. “She’s a beauty, by the way.” NO STOP AL NO STOP.
Are we waiting on the final trials qualifiers, or will it be later?
The remaining trials qualifiers are Desiderio, Dowell, Gowey, Locklear, Nichols, Schild and Skinner. So Schild did get in, as did Desiderio, which is a bit of a surprise but comes with help from the Key and Foberg withdrawals.
So, top 13 AA plus Nichols and Locklear.
15 is the same as 2012 trials, when only 14 ended up competing because of Sloan’s withdrawal.
49 thoughts on “Women’s Day 2 Live Blog: Watchful Eyes Are Watchful”
Um Nope. I been questioning GABBY. Im with Tim. He aint the only one either. Go to youtube.
I’m truly amused by one youtube user who is convinced that Gabby is the messiah sent directly from God to save us from Simone. Literally delusional. I think Gabby’s pulling it back, though. She’ll probably be on the team.
i can only read Gabbys youtube comments I avoid at every means not to comment. if i say something displeasing to them. they wanna tear u apart and i don’t have time for that. All they talk abt is gabby throwing an amanar to overthrow simone. i just hope she is left off this team. the world might come to an end with her fans.
Dying at the “whos making the olympic team” game – they are trying to make it more complicated so it’s more interesting. But really it’s Simone, Aly, Gabby, Laurie and then either Maggie or Maddie.
I think Gabby and Maggie are competing for the same spot. Gabby is clearly winning that contest right now.
I despise that Tom’s doing the Trump thing of “People are saying…” Own it or shut it!
*Sorry, obvs Tim. And since when do we call them “Replacement Athletes” and not alternates? Do we order them from Sears now? Tacky.
Is anyone else upset about Tim and Al constantly commenting on how Gabby is or isn’t smiling? I didn’t know that gymnastics were smile powered. Are men’s gymnastics smile powered? Or just women’s?
She doesn’t look super thrilled, but there is ZERO need to keep talking about it! I actually thought she had more expression in her floor routine tonight 🙂
Can they please do close ups of the girls’ stretch marks??? Makes as much as the knee surgery scar close ups.
Is it bad that I’m laughing sooooo hard at your analysis of Skinner’s beam? I never want to see anyone get hurt, but that was hilariously terrifying. I’m a terrible person.
Well, Marta may think Douglas is a lock. But I sure wish they’d leave her off the team. Biles, Raisman, Hernandez, Kocian, Locklear or RIOT!!!!
You think they’ll accept Mykayla’s petition to trials? Or will they leave her out in the cold?
They’ll accept it. They mostly care about her vault and floor.
Skinner was on the trial invite list. Her beam really hurts. Physically today. But she still have a good chance of getting an alt spot as long as she keeps up her vt and fx…
Aly’s always won bronze before at Nationals, so good for her to finally get silver!
yes Aly! She’s such a team player and I’m so happy to see her rewarded individually.
I was so happy for her!!! This is what she NEEDS to happen to get a shot to do the AA in the prelims and attempt to qualify for the AA final. She really needs to repeat this result at trials.
If Simone and Gabby both make the team they will do AA in prelims, then there is most likely Laurie who is TF-worthy on the UB and great in the AA. Then the UB specialist.
So who do they take out for Aly?!? My guess is Laurie. However, I don’t think Marta would go for it unless Aly was consistently being the 2nd American.
““My legs are just so dead.” “That’s OK.” “No it’s not. That was like the worst routine all week.” YES LOVE.
Well, Simone. You’re going to have to do this in qualification, TF, AA, and EF at the Olympics coming off a month-long hell camp, so work that out.”
Nope. Marta needs to work that out and give these women adequate rest time. Nobody benefits when she errs on the side of working them into the ground.
I think marta will probably give them an extra minute of rest. And that’s it.. haha… seriously though I think they would do well to learn from 2008. I think they probably will train a little more smart…
She gave the an entire 20 MINUTESto walk around Glasgow when Simone said they were tired. Surely the Olympians deserve a half hour!?
Aly’s vault should not be outscoring Skinner’s. She’s essentially tucked throughout.
Must be a Utah fan. A two and half twist in the tucked position would probably have just as high of a d score. Skinner is always surprised when she lands. She pikes her Cheng enough that she may not even get credited for the layout position.
The fact remains Skinner has the cleaner Amanar and the scores should reflect that.
Tim reported Marta’s comment that ‘Gabby needs to have higher expectations of herself in the gym.’ Now that’s revealing, in my opinion, that the power that is (Marta; as there are no “powers that be”) doesn’t think Gabby is working hard enough.
douglas likes to play games, but I think the time for game is getting short. you can’t keep playing game til TF at rio. she really need to be a little more serious soon..
I honestly think Aly came into this thinking she had to 100% prove herself and that nothing from the past mattered. And I think Gabby came into thinking I’M THE OLYMPIC CHAMP so I can just get by until it matters and hope it all comes together. I hate that attitude so I hope I’m wrong and she was just having an off weekend. Because right now if she wasn’t the the Olympic champion, I don’t think she would be so high in consideration for this team.
I suspect Tim used the wrong words. Marta has repeatedly said (see The Ranch docu and other interviews) that Gabby needs more confidence in her abilities. It’s a self-confidence issue and not a matter of not working hard. I think Tim probably meant that Gabby needs higher expectations meaning that she needs to believe in herself more, not that she needs to work harder.
I know people love to hate on Gabby. But she’s always been focused and more soft spoken than the other athletes. She’s not a Simone or Mary Lou or Carly in the attitude department. I find it a bit refreshing.
Are you kidding? More soft spoken than other athletes? She is the most arrogant in interviews out of any of them.
Gabby’s a gamer. She can pull the goods out when it counts. That’s the kind of gymnast we should send to the Olympics. Yes, it would be great if she practiced hard, but I would prefer someone who competes well. Brenna is a girl who practices well and crumbles under pressure. Brenna’s never competed up to her potential. Also, Mykayla has huge difficulty but horrendous execution during competitions. After tonight, I will never be able to watch a Skinner beam routine without holding my breath.
And yet Gabby fell three times on beam at Nationals once and still managed to become an olympic champion. I’m not saying Skinner is olympic champion material, she’s far from it, but lets be realistic about this. One bad beam routine is just that (for now at least).
My team is still biles, raisman, Hernandez, douglas, kocian. Alt. locklear, Nichols, skinner. This pretty much covers everything. Not really anyone else fitting into the puzzle. Nothing really surprising to change the team so far after both days of P&G.
They keep saying reigning Olympic champion like she has a shot at doing it again. She will be nothing but another contributor this quad and needs to be evaluated that way. If Marta wants to capitalize on the number of medals the USA comes home with, then if Gabby looks like this at trials I can see her as an alternate. Although PR wise, I can’t see them leaving her off the team. And since the US is strong enough to wind Gold and have the Gold AA and still play politics, I am sure short of a meltdown she will be going. To bad Nichols had that injury
Gabby contributor i hope she stays off this quad. i don’t dislike Gabby but her fans r making it hard for me to root for the girl. they are pressuring her so much with upgrades and amanar. Nicholas and that injury. Nicholas downgraded a lot ay American Cup and was close to Gabby. Her injury is really a set bk. she needs to hit that amanar and floor at trials. her bars were never 15 but 14,7/14.8 will work.
I’m totally fine with Gabby on the team – she placed fourth, I’m not terrified of her being put up on any event, Marta likes all-arounders.
I am extremely concerned that Laurie is going to get screwed out of doing the AA in qualifying.
If Aly is above Gabby again in trials, I hope they let her, Simone and Laurie do AA in Rio. It would be a hard pill to swallow for Gabby, but she had her time to shine in 2012 and I’d like to see someone like Laurie get that chance as well. If there is no bars specialist on the team, then Gabby is easy to leave off floor or beam in qualifications. I’d rather see floor from Simone, Aly, Laurie, and either Maggie or Maddie. And beam would be Simone, Laurie, Aly and then it wouldnt matter for the 4th as that score would likely be dropped anyways.
That won’t happen. If Simone, Aly, and Laurie do the AA than ony 1 other person can compete on bars and Martha will want both Gabby and Koclear on bars. My guess is that Simone, Gabby, Laurie will do the AA, Aly vt/bb/fx, Koclear ub. Unfortunately someone needs to skip bars and obviously the weakest person (Aly) should skip. Laurie could easily qualify over Douglas
Marta could do what she did in Glasgow and have Aly do bars in quals and Laurie do bars in TF so it’s Laurie, Gabby, and then Maddie. Or if Maggie is on the team, then she does vault/fx and Gabby does bars and beam. Just depends on team makeup.
I don’t think Martha would risk that with a first year senior at the Olympics. World’s is a different story where they could have had a fall and still won, the Olympics is much more important and nothing should be risked. And they really have no idea how Laurie is going to score since the US judges like to close their eyes and give any score they please, unless Laurie does bars in qualifications they wont know whether to use her or Biles in TF. I dont think Maggie has any shot of being on the team but it would make things more easy in qualifications. Either way, someone is going to be disappointed because they can’t do the AA.
I’ve gotten pretty into Gymnastics this quad and although I have rematches all of the past 2 quads I haven’t necessarily figured this much out: When Marta takes this many all arounders (assuming she takes Simone, Aly, Laurie, Gabby and Madison) She can’t put 4 up for the all around final can she? Because you have to qualify them in team qualifications yes? I would assume she would do 3 like last quad? But then what on earth would Gabby be used for? I would put Madison above her on bars. And then Gabby on I guess on the other 3. But, she won’t be too happy especially because will she qualify to any event finals?
I guess what I’m wondering is how do individual qualifications work?
At the olympics in qualifications, 4 of the 5 compete each event, 3 scores count. You’re correct that she would not put up that many AAers, but she prefers to have them on the team in case of injury. The event final and AA qualifiers are determined on the first day of competition, so you’re correct that leaving Gabby out of bars on day 1 would mean she doesn’t get a chance to make event finals
unfortunately only 3 will get to do AA…I could see gabby status as an AA in jeopardy if she does this again at trial and podium… there is definite a possibility of her being weibered out. in 2012 raisman did beat her in qual. So it could happen again in qual if she has an off day…. Its less likely that marta will cut her from AA (unless she starts to consistently screwed up totally) as there is probably also political pressure from the above… Her AA status is in no way close to being guaranteed at this point…
I don’t understand what anyone is seeing that would put Gabby’s status on the Olympic team in jeopardy. She didn’t have a great two nights, and even so, she scored fourth all-around. Now obviously if Aly and Laurie beat her again at trials, it’ll be hard justifying putting her up for the AA, but she seems like a lock for the team unless Maggie comes out of nowhere and destroys her, which seems highly unlikely. Gabby’s a consistently high enough scorer, even on her off days, to end up near the top, and she’s had a lot of success this year. She’s basically the Kyla Ross of this olympics – not a super stand-out, but clean and consistent on everything, and helpful on bars. So what’s the problem?
yeah she’ll make the team. I just really want to see her sit out all around. Not because I dislike her, I just prefer watching Laurie and Aly and would like to see them give it a shot. And as much as I would hate to see Aly miss out on AA again, part of me is really wanting it for Laurie.
Your narration of Skinner on beam was the greatest thing I’ve ever read…
I’m not sure if Gabby will make the team at this rate. I mean, I fully expected Whittenburg and Leyva to be on the men’s team and that didn’t happen. Of course, if Marta picked the men’s team she may have realized it would be dumb to leave them off the team but still, 2 surprises in the men’s team makes me think 1 surprise in the women’s team is definitely possible.
Also I think Locklear has better odds than Kocian at this point. Yeah Kocian is doing 4 routines but she’d only be used for ub in event finals anyways. Plus her lifetime of shattered bones is reason to be nervous. Girl looks like a strong wind could knock her over these days. Locklear has been consistent on ub all season and has yet to lose to Kocian on bars in any of their head to heads. Beam they’re about the same and would only be used in qualifying if that. Locklear seems like a no brainer in my mind.
Marta has said many times that she won’t take someone who doesn’t train all the events. USAGym will do everything possible to not replace an athlete since getting kicked out the olympic village is so traumatic for them. I would like to see no event specialists go – I think a team of Simone, Aly, Gabby, Laurie and Maggie could win easily. Yeah, maybe you sacrifice a chance at a bars medal, but it’s slim chance anyways – pretty much the bars final will be 2 China, 2 Russia, and then a whole bunch of super talented girls from Great Britain, France, Germany, and maybe US. The only way Locklear goes is if IOC forces Marta’s hand.
Pretty slim chance of Maggie going from the current line up and what she is scoring at this point. She would need 15+ ub, amanar, 15+ fx. She would have to do ub in TF. That is a lot to ask for coming back from an injury..
Yes Kocian is only strong in ub but she has usable beam and fx routine for qual. Which is why I think she will be picked over locklear.
After crunching some numbers, based on P&Gs alone it would be down to 7 athletes: Simone, Aly and Laurie are locks with Gabby, Madison, Mykayla and Ashton fighting it out for the last 2 spots. I worked out the TF score for each combination. To see how well rounded the team is in terms of built-in alternates, I then calculated the score if disaster strikes and Simone is out of action (Simone would obviously step up if a UB worker was out). In order:
1. Kocian and Locklear: 185.625. Without Simone: 181 (3). (NB: I gave Kocian back the automatic 0.3 deduction for doing a FTY that she would get at the international level).
2. Skinner and Locklear: 185.2. Simone does AA in TF. Without Simone: 180.875 (4).
3. Kocian and Skinner: 185.125. Simone does AA in TF. Without Simone: 180.825 (5).
4. Douglas and Locklear: 184.675. Laurie does AA in TF. Drops to 184.6 if Gabby does VT instead. Without Simone: 181.2 (1).
5. Douglas and Kocian: 184.6. Laurie does AA in TF. Drops to 184.525 with Gabby on VT. Without Simone: 181.125 (2).
6. Douglas and Skinner: 184.35. Simone does AA in TF. Without Simone: 180.35 (6).
I thought that Gabby would make the team due to being decent all around and at bars, but based on her scores this weekend she’s definitely at risk of being left at home. She doesn’t help the team at all in a best-case scenario (i.e. everyone doing their intended events) and doesn’t help significantly in a worst-case scenario. Of course, if there was a second injury then I think she’d be more useful, particularly if Locklear is in the team. Going with 2 specialists also maximizes the opportunity for event medals, although you can’t have all 3 AAers and 2 bar specialists in QF. Kocian being able to do AA also doesn’t seem to make any difference, unless there are multiple injuries (although TBH, if anyone’s going to break it’s Kocian).
Of course, this is just based on this one competition and athletes could have very different days come trials. Plus, Maggie Nichols didn’t compete VT and FX, so hopefully she might be in the mix too!
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