Week 5 Rankings and Notes

WEEK 5 RANKINGS
equal-sign-clip-art-5pypjt-clipart 1. Oklahoma 197.760
  • Sooners stay on track with an average-maintaining 197.675
  • Nichols remains #1 AA with 39.850, gets first 10.000 on BB
  • OU is #1 on UB, BB, FX, #2 on VT behind Florida
equal-sign-clip-art-5pypjt-clipart 2. LSU 197.555
  • LSU’s 197.425 home score v. Missouri is season-low total (SO low)
  • 9.950s lead the scoring (VT-Hambrick, Gnat; FX-Gnat)
  • Edney wins AA for second week running with 39.375
equal-sign-clip-art-5pypjt-clipart 3. Florida 197.430
  • Gators match LSU with still-acceptable 197.425 in loss to Alabama
  • Baker leads the charge with 39.575 AA, 9.950 on FX
  • Slocum’s 9.925 ties for VT victory, Boren goes 9.925 on FX
  • Alexander debuts on VT with 9.725
equal-sign-clip-art-5pypjt-clipart 4. Utah 196.950
  • Utah counts UB fall for mediocre 196.450 in victory over Cal
  • Skinner leads the AA as usual with 39.500
  • Rowe adds 9.925 on FX
  • Strain on depth shows in uncharacteristic 9.7s on VT, UB
equal-sign-clip-art-5pypjt-clipart 5. UCLA 196.750
  • UCLA holds steady after second-consecutive road 197
  • Kocian leads team with 39.625 AA, 9.950 on BB, FX
  • Ross scores career-high 9.975 on BB, but falls on UB, FX
  • Original Peng-Peng Lee beam sit takes away even higher score
equal-sign-clip-art-5pypjt-clipart 6. Alabama 196.671
  • Tide stay put at #6 despite season-high 197.825 v. Florida
  • Winston scores first career 10, wins AA with 39.700
  • 9.950s also come from Winston (UB) and Sims (FX)
  • Jetter adds floor back for 9.850
equal-sign-clip-art-5pypjt-clipart 7. Michigan 196.400
  • Michigan opens with UB falls, counting 8.9 for 196.475 total
  • 49.450 on BB, 49.400 on FX save what could have been a 195
  • 9.975 from Chiarelli (FX) and 9.950 from Marinez (BB) lead scoring
green-up-arrow 8. Boise State 196.238
  • Boise State breaks 197 in home rout of Southern Utah
  • As usual, UB leads the scoring with 9.900s from Mejia, Collantes
  • Remme’s 39.450 wins AA
equal-sign-clip-art-5pypjt-clipart 9. Georgia 196.179
  • More Georgia BB woes for 196.500 final
  • One fall, three other scores of 9.700 or lower on BB take away a 197
  • Vaculik returns to the UB lineup with 9.900
  • Vega reaches 9.900 on FX
equal-sign-clip-art-5pypjt-clipart 10. Kentucky 196.054
  • Kentucky gets back on 196 track with 196.150 loss to Georgia
  • Uncontrolled VT landings thwart possible upset bid
  • 9.925s on BB from Hyland, Dukes lead the team
green-up-arrow 11. Oregon State 195.980
  • OSU keeps chugging up the rankings with 196.200 win @ Arizona
  • Gardiner 9.950 on BB leads the scoring
  • Random counting 9.6s on BB, 9.7s on UB, FX take away higher total
reddownarrow 12. Denver 195.900
  • Five VTers finally caught up to Denver with a counting 8.750
  • Drop 4 ranking places with 194.500 final score
  • At least Maddie Karr went 39.400
reddownarrow 13. Missouri 195.883
  • A continuing theme of UB trouble hits Missouri for 195.425
  • Otherwise, Missouri was on 196 track on VT, BB, FX
  • Ward leads with 9.925 VT (better than 9.950 VT from 2 weeks ago)
green-up-arrow 14. George Washington 195.865
  • Season-high 196.400 jumps GW into the top 15 (the top 15! GW!)
  • The usual suspects do their usual thing
  • 9.900s from CDA (VT) and Raineri (FX) lead
equal-sign-clip-art-5pypjt-clipart 15. Cal 195.785
  • Season-ending injury to Williams forces Cal to shuffle lineups
  • No counting falls but many 9.7s in 195.725 final
  • Team-high scores are 9.850 from Richardson (UB) and So Seilnacht (BB)
green-up-arrow 16. Auburn 195.717
  • Auburn gains one spot despite 196.075 in loss to Arkansas
  • Counting FX fall takes away a more useful score
  • Cerio goes 9.900 on both UB and FX
green-up-arrow 17. Washington 195.656
  • Counting UB fall removes chance for victory, mid-196
  • Washington still moves up one spot after 195.825
  • Flood of 9.875s (Hoffa – FX; Goings, Rose, Schaeffer – BB) lead team
  • Copiak returns to UB with 9.800
green-up-arrow 18. Ohio State 195.585
  • OSU moves up one after 195.775 home victory v. Rutgers
  • 9.925 from Mattern on FX leads team
  • Counting 9.6s on UB, BB take away possible 196
green-up-arrow 19. Nebraska 195.565
  • Mixed-bag weekend ultimately bumps Nebraska up one spot
  • BB and FX catastrophes lead to season-low 194.450 in meet 1
  • Lambert and Williams adding FX leads to season-high 196.825 in meet 2
reddownarrow 20. Southern Utah 195.425
  • Epic and tragic five-fall BB rotation leads to 194.325 final
  • Remember that time I talked about how good SUU would be on BB?
  • Madison McBride (VT), Yee (BB) lead team with 9.875s
equal-sign-clip-art-5pypjt-clipart 21. Illinois 195.410
  • Illinois hits 196 for first time this year in victory over Minnesota
  • Leduc wins AA with huge 39.500, leads BB (9.950), FX (9.900)
  • Horth leads on UB with 9.875
equal-sign-clip-art-5pypjt-clipart 22. Iowa 195.325
  • For fifth-straight week, Iowa is #22 after 195.725 road score
  • 9.850s on UB (Zurawski), FX (Kaji, Snyder), lead to 49+ scores
green-up-arrow 23. Arkansas 195.305
  • Depleted Arkansas keeps winning somehow, 196.375 over Auburn
  • Garner returns to UB, ties for lineup-high with 9.850
  • Nelson’s 9.900 on BB leads the team
green-up-arrow 24. West Virginia 195.215
  • WVU moves up one after 195.950 away at Kent State
  • Koshinski’s 9.900s on VT, FX lead the team as usual
  • Counting 9.6s on UB, BB undermine score
green-up-arrow 25. Iowa State 194.938
  • Iowa State enters top 25 for first time this year with 195.775
  • Young leads team with 39.325 AA, 9.900 on FX

Full rankings at RTN.

We’ve reached the point in the season when even big scores aren’t necessarily going to move the rankings a whole lot at the top because the influence of a single score is relatively small. So, Alabama can record quite a significant result in beating Florida with the nation’s high score of the week but still remain at #6. The main movement at the top involved UCLA and Alabama inching closer to Utah and separating themselves from Michigan a bit more.

Boise State moves up to #8 after hitting the 197s, while poor results from Denver and Southern Utah see them both fall several places, accounting for much of the movement in the rest of the rankings. A number of teams were just OK and should have stayed where they were but moved up one spot because Southern Utah fell so many, from #11 to #20, mimicking what Nebraska did the week before.

Playing the “if the regular season ended today” game (and why shouldn’t we?) the regional seedings would look like this:

1: Oklahoma, Denver, Missouri
2: LSU, Oregon State, George Washington
3: Florida, Kentucky, Cal
4: Utah, Georgia, Auburn
5: UCLA, Boise State, Washington
6: Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State

Lots of dangerous as-yet unseeded teams are still floating around as well, several of them hosting regionals like Nebraska and Arkansas. It’s hard enough as is without a 196-capable host sliding in and ruining everything, which we may have a lot of this year. I’ve talked in the past about my love of hosts as #3 seeds because of juicy upset potential, and with Washington, Nebraska, Arkansas, Illinois, and West Virginia as hosts (along with Florida), we should have a lot of juicy host upset potential.

In the RQS game of terror, Nebraska granted itself a temporary stay with a very good 196.8 on Sunday. Of course, that still means needing five more 196s in the remaining five meets to stay in solid shape, but for now it’s OK. So, our attention shifts to some of the other teams sinking down into ranking worries, like Auburn and Stanford. Auburn doesn’t want to be in the ranking situation its in right now, and for evidence of that, look no further than the prospective regional distribution above.

Auburn has six meets remaining and no score greater than 196.400, which isn’t going to cut it to get a #2 seed, while Stanford has six meets remaining and no score yet into the 196s. Last year, when Stanford just sneaked into the seeded teams at #18, the lowest of their six RQS scores was 196.075. Stanford can’t afford any more 195s without running the risk of being unseeded. Unseeded Stanford would also be very bad news for Washington since geographical placement of unseeded teams would put Stanford in Washington’s hosted regional. An unwanted complication.

Southern Utah suffered the most significant of the balance beam situations this week, nearly shooting the moon with a lineup of all falls, but that was relatively rare this weekend. Many more problems occurred on the bars than on the beam. Both Michigan and Washington opened their meets with two consecutive misses that took away any hope of a competitive number within minutes, and there was a period on Saturday during which the national collection of low bars had clearly been cursed since no one could hit vertical on a bail handstand and then Ross and Rowe both botched theirs nearly back-to-back. Kyla Ross fell on a bail handstand, you guys. That’s…not even a situation. Beam is typically the lowest scoring event, but this year bars is giving beam a serious run.

Another trend I noticed this week, something for which there can never be any clear evidence, was pity scoring. Pity scoring is the phenomenon where a team that’s expected to do well will have a terrible rotation in the first half of the meet and then find in the later rotations that their scores are magically way higher than they ever have been before or would normally be for those routines, almost as though the judges are trying to boost them closer to a preconceived total to make up for the earlier mistakes rather than evaluating the routines independently of other rotations. (See: Florida, 2013 Super Six). Pity scoring was aggressive this weekend in a number of meets.

Non-famous stars of the week
Gymnasts from schools outside the top 25 who scored over 9.900

Macey Hilliker, Katy Clements, Denelle Pedrick, CMU – Floor, 9.925
Quite the little floor score for Central Michigan at 49.475

Lauren Feely, Bowling Green – Vault, 9.925
#NeverRememberAlwaysForget

 

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10 thoughts on “Week 5 Rankings and Notes”

  1. Any idea what’s happened to Cassidy Kellen? I would think Cal needs her right now if she’s not injured but she wasn’t in the lineup.

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    1. Cal’s release notes this week said dislocated kneecap I think? And Dudschus is out with her back. No indication how long for because the sentence structure was unclear 😂

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      1. Howe is injured. One of the gymnast’s mother is my mentor and I asked her about Howe. She said she’s injured but her daughter wouldn’t give any details.

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  2. Stanford’s online schedule states that their regional meet is in Seattle, Washington. I suspect their website format requires a location and they couldn’t just write TBA or varies, so they picked a site. It is, however, quite funny that it appears they knew they would be unranked and put in the Washington regional.

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  3. Marsden has on his Twitter a potential regionals breakdown from 1-36. The matchups look incredible this year and it’s critical to go into regionals as a top seed. I don’t think any team currently on the #2 line will have an easy time of it. Also, your posts analyzing potential RQS for teams are one of my favorite things of the NCAA season.

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  4. I’m so glad you did the Regionals breakdown. I just did one myself. Great minds think alike! The harder part is figuring out who will actually be at each regional location. Is there a science to figuring that out? I’m trying so I can figure out where to buy my ticket to see my fav team Oklahoma.

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    1. Assuming the math doesn’t automatically seed Oklahoma with a host school, I’d guess based on their location they’d end up in Nebraska or Arkansas.

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