Ranking Watch: Week 10


1. Oklahoma Sooners

NQS: 198.025
Previous ranking: 1

Road Score 1: 198.200
Road Score 2: 198.075
Road Score 3: 198.050
Home/Road Score 1: 198.325
Home/Road Score 2: 197.975
Home/Road Score 3: 197.825
NQS: 198.025

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 198.125
Meets remaining: 3
Road meets remaining: 1

Oklahoma’s return to the land of the 198s over the weekend brought the team NQS over the 198 barrier—making Oklahoma the 5th team in history to achieve that feat, following Oklahoma 2017 and 2018 and UCLA 2003 and 2004. We’re now back on record watch, as Oklahoma could match its own all-time NQS record (198.120) at today’s meet against Iowa State with a score of 198.300 and would break it with a 198.325. Absolutely possible the way things have been going. Oklahoma is already guaranteed to be safely at #1 heading into conference championships regardless of what happens until then.

Now, about the absences of Trautman and Nichols (on two events). You would think Oklahoma is not going to score 198s in real life if that keeps up into elimination meets, but also nothing matters anymore and there are no deductions, so whatever.


2. UCLA Bruins

NQS: 197.885
Previous ranking: 2

Road Score 1: 198.025
Road Score 2: 197.900
Road Score 3: 197.700
Home/Road Score 1: 198.325
Home/Road Score 2: 198.025
Home/Road Score 3: 197.775
NQS: 197.885

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.995
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

UCLA notched its 5th-best score in program history on Sunday with a 198.325 against Stanford—a marked improvement over the showing against Oklahoma the previous week but also one where the score overpromises on the quality of the performance, surprise surprise. This result further entrenches UCLA in that #2 position as no one else can come very close to catching the Bruins this weekend. UCLA also cannot catch Oklahoma, even if VAL! 2019 is evaluated exactly as we expect it to be next Saturday.


3. Florida Gators

NQS: 197.675
Previous ranking: 3

Road Score 1: 198.025
Road Score 2: 197.500
Road Score 3: 197.325
Home/Road Score 1: 198.025
Home/Road Score 2: 197.850
Home/Road Score 3: 197.675
NQS: 197.675

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.815
Meets remaining: 1
Road meets remaining: 1

Florida snatched its second 198 of the season in its home finale, though things are not quite as solid for Florida heading into the final weekend of non-championship meets since Florida will be on a rest week. Probably a nice idea before SECs, but it does mean that Florida is potentially vulnerable to losing the #3 ranking if things go just, just right for LSU. LSU would need to match its season high with a 198.150+ on the road at Arizona to pass Florida—so not easy but not impossible.


4. LSU Tigers

NQS: 197.475
Previous ranking: 4

Road Score 1: 197.450
Road Score 2: 197.250
Road Score 3: 197.125
Home/Road Score 1: 198.150
Home/Road Score 2: 197.900
Home/Road Score 3: 197.650
NQS: 197.475

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.680
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

Not to be outdone, LSU was the 4th team to manage a 198 over the weekend, going 198.150 in its home finale for a top-5 score in program history and opening up the possibility of passing Florida for #3 this weekend as noted above. It’s the flat road scores that have kept LSU from challenging the top three, and an opportunity to rectify that has now been presented.

But. LSU must also worry about getting passed this weekend. Despite having a higher peak NQS than Denver and therefore controlling the situation, Denver still has quite a low road score to get rid of and is therefore more likely to improve its NQS by a larger amount. If Denver manages another season high, LSU is going to need to go 198s again to guarantee staying at #4. LSU is also potentially vulnerable to Utah but would have to put up an unusably low number for that to come into play.


5. Denver Pioneers

NQS: 197.365
Previous ranking: 6

Road Score 1: 197.775
Road Score 2: 197.450
Road Score 3: 196.350
Home/Road Score 1: 197.725
Home/Road Score 2: 197.675
Home/Road Score 3: 197.625
NQS: 197.365

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.650
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

Our first change in the rankings this week comes with Denver jumping up into the #5 spot ahead of an idle Utah team. Despite recording one of the top 5 scores in program history (ALMOST LIKE A THEME!), Denver did not improve its NQS too much because the team already had three home scores among the top scores in program history. There wasn’t much to change. There will be much to change, however, this next weekend on the road since Denver still has that low 196 road score flapping around in there. Even if the road score are a little more conservative next week, that 196.350 is infinitely beatable and Denver presenting a threat to LSU is realistic. Utah, meanwhile, does present a threat to Denver this week, Denver looking to score 196.950 to be assured of retaining #5.


6. Utah Utes

NQS: 197.315
Previous ranking: 5

Road Score 1: 197.375
Road Score 2: 197.250
Road Score 3: 197.150
Home/Road Score 1: 197.975
Home/Road Score 2: 197.625
Home/Road Score 3: 197.175
NQS: 197.315

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.480
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

Utah dropped a spot to Denver by not competing over the weekend, though #6 may be the new normal because Utah has a much lower peak NQS after the coming meets than LSU and Denver do. Denver has totally upended that LSU/Utah regional showdown the rankings had been pointing toward for so many weeks. Whether Utah has a shot to get back to #5 this week is in Denver’s hands, even if Utah’s visit to Georgia on Saturday is scored exactly as you expect it to be. Utah will also be focused on staying ahead of Michigan, which can be assured with a 197.550. 


7. Michigan Wolverines

NQS: 197.140
Previous ranking: 7

Road Score 1: 197.750
Road Score 2: 197.350
Road Score 3: 197.075
Home/Road Score 1: 197.425
Home/Road Score 2: 197.350
Home/Road Score 3: 196.500
NQS: 197.140

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.390
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

The loss to Oklahoma nonetheless provided Michigan with its strongest home score of the season, a 197.425 to allow the team to retain the #7 ranking and keep within sight of Denver and Utah—though it will be in the hands of those two as to whether Michigan has an opportunity to pass this week. To stay at least at #7, Michigan will be looking for 196.800 in its visit to Missouri on Friday, which at this point in the season would be a below-expectations score anyway. It really should happen.


8. Georgia Bulldogs

NQS: 197.100
Previous ranking: 8

Road Score 1: 197.450
Road Score 2: 197.350
Road Score 3: 196.400
Home/Road Score 1: 197.475
Home/Road Score 2: 197.300
Home/Road Score 3: 197.000
NQS: 197.100

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.195
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

Georgia got the next big road score it needed with a 197.350 at Elevate despite going a little cray cray in the early routines on an event or two. Still, Georgia has left things kind of late in terms of getting competitive road scores, so there won’t be too much opportunity to improve NQS this coming weekend at home. Those home scores are already solid and fairly tightly bunched. Because Georgia doesn’t have too much to gain this week, there’s also the chance of getting passed up by Kentucky, Georgia looking for 197.275 to stamp that out.


9. Kentucky Wildcats

NQS: 196.845
Previous ranking: 12

Road Score 1: 197.225
Road Score 2: 196.650
Road Score 3: 196.000
Home/Road Score 1: 197.525
Home/Road Score 2: 197.200
Home/Road Score 3: 197.150
NQS: 196.845

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.150
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

A casual program-record 197.525 on senior night for that team-defining senior class has ushered Kentucky into the top 10. With a low 196 road score still aching to be dropped, Kentucky is in solid position to keep this ranking up with just a normal score this coming weekend. The minimum goal will be 196.300—the score necessary to fend off Alabama and clinch a spot in the evening session at the SEC Championship. Extremely doable and expected at this point. Kentucky will also be looking for 196.825, required to ensure staying at #9 regardless of other team’s scores.


9. Minnesota Golden Gophers

NQS: 196.845
Previous ranking: 10

Road Score 1: 197.025
Road Score 2: 196.925
Road Score 3: 196.700
Home/Road Score 1: 197.500
Home/Road Score 2: 196.850
Home/Road Score 3: 196.725
NQS: 196.845

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 197.005
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

Minnesota’s first road 197 of the season has seen the team get up to a tie for 9th with Kentucky. Minnesota does not have as high a peak NQS as the other teams ranked above, but it’s sort of mission accomplished already since Minnesota does not have any score lower than 196.700 hanging around. This is already a hugely successful regular season. There is a fairly significant chance could be re-passed by Alabama after this weekend, though, so Minnesota will be looking for a 197.000 to keep that from happening.


11. Alabama Crimson Tide

NQS: 196.820
Previous ranking: 9

Road Score 1: 197.100
Road Score 2: 196.900
Road Score 3: 196.850
Home/Road Score 1: 196.850
Home/Road Score 2: 196.800
Home/Road Score 3: 196.700
NQS: 196.820

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 196.900
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

Alabama did finally break that 197 barrier by going 197.100 at Elevate, but it’s still just a 197.100 and not enough to retain a spot in the top 10. Hope for the evening session at SECs is not completely gone for Alabama, but it’s entirely in the hands of Kentucky. Alabama cannot fall any lower than 11th regardless of what happens this week.


12. Auburn Tigers

NQS: 196.670
Previous ranking: 13

Road Score 1: 196.775
Road Score 2: 196.700
Road Score 3: 196.400
Home/Road Score 1: 197.100
Home/Road Score 2: 196.775
Home/Road Score 3: 196.700
NQS: 196.670

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 196.750
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

That final rotation at Elevate was very kind to Auburn, allowing the team to notch a season-high road score and near a program beam record, but it was not enough to keep Auburn in contention for the evening session at SECs. Competing at home this weekend, Auburn doesn’t have too much chance to improve its NQS and can’t move up higher than 12th, but will have to watch out for Boise State and Oregon State as both teams have the higher possible NQS. That means there’s still danger for Auburn in getting pushed down into the muck of the #4 regional seeds.


13. Boise State Broncos

NQS: 196.610
Previous ranking: 11

Road Score 1: 197.175
Road Score 2: 196.525
Road Score 3: 196.375
Home/Road Score 1: 197.125
Home/Road Score 2: 196.625
Home/Road Score 3: 196.400
NQS: 196.610

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 196.770
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

A counting fall on bars—of all events—kept Boise State from recording an NQS-usable score in its home finale, the team dropping a couple places in the rankings as a result. Boise State will have another chance to get rid of one of those lower 196s this week and can guarantee re-passing Auburn and fending off any lower-ranked challengers with a 197.100. It’s a difficult score, but Boise State has gone there twice this season, and it’s the kind of score we’re starting to expect from this portion of the rankings at this point in the season. If you want to get seeded at regionals, you need to be able to score a 197.


14. BYU Cougars

NQS: 196.550
Previous ranking: 16

Road Score 1: 197.000
Road Score 2: 196.500
Road Score 3: 196.425
Home/Road Score 1: 196.900
Home/Road Score 2: 196.475
Home/Road Score 3: 196.450
NQS: 196.550

Maximum possible RQS after next meet: 196.665
Meets remaining: 3
Road meets remaining: 1

BYU got its final necessary road score over the weekend by breaking that 197 barrier, meaning that all six scores are perfectly usable at this point. BYU does have three meets remaining (including this Wednesday) to improve its NQS, which is still important despite all the scores being solid because BYU needs every tenth to ensure staying in the top 16, especially with a lower peak score than Oregon State this week.


15. Oregon State Beavers

NQS: 196.485
Previous ranking: 15

Road Score 1: 196.650
Road Score 2: 196.375
Road Score 3: 196.350
Home/Road Score 1: 197.450
Home/Road Score 2: 196.950
Home/Road Score 3: 196.100
NQS: 196.485

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 196.755
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

Oregon State did the job on the road against LSU, recording a 196.375 that isn’t going to set anything on fire but was enough to move ahead of Cal. It also sets up the chance to move ahead of BYU (requiring breaking 197 in the home finale to guarantee it). The absolute minimum goals for this weekend will be 196.225, the score required to clinch the evening session at Pac-12s, and 196.300 the score required to stay in the top 16. But the real goal will be much higher than that.


16. California Golden Bears

NQS: 196.460
Previous ranking: 14

Road Score 1: 196.975
Road Score 2: 196.225
Road Score 3: 196.150
Home/Road Score 1: 196.700
Home/Road Score 2: 196.650
Home/Road Score 3: 196.575
NQS: 196.460

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 196.540
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

A counting fall on bars took away the opportunity for a usable score from Cal this week—particularly frustrating because the team broke the 196 barrier even while counting a score in the 8s on bars and would have had a massive road score to bolster the ranking otherwise. As it stands now, the race to stay in the top 16 and the race to get into the evening session at Pac-12s is very much live. Cal competes at home this weekend and therefore has a pretty low maximum NQS since the home scores are fairly solid, but will eagerly look for a 196.825, the score required to stay ahead of Washington and get that evening spot at Pac-12s, and 196.900, the score required to guarantee staying in the top 16 this week.


17. Washington Huskies

NQS: 196.395
Previous ranking: 19

Road Score 1: 196.750
Road Score 2: 196.525
Road Score 3: 196.350
Home/Road Score 1: 196.650
Home/Road Score 2: 196.250
Home/Road Score 3: 196.200
NQS: 196.395

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 196.505
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

Washington recorded a couple solid 196s in its two meets over the weekend to get itself back into the race for the seeded spots and Pac-12 evening, though both of those feats will be in the hands of others since Oregon State and Cal both have higher peak potential scores following this weekend’s competitions. Washington competes on Friday while Cal competes on Sunday, so it will be a wait-and-see weekend.


18. Nebraska Cornhuskers

NQS: 196.345
Previous ranking: 18

Road Score 1: 196.400
Road Score 2: 196.225
Road Score 3: 195.900
Home/Road Score 1: 197.250
Home/Road Score 2: 196.825
Home/Road Score 3: 196.375
NQS: 196.345

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 196.520
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

A 196.225 road score at Denver on Sunday helped things, because it meant that a 195.700 could be dropped, but didn’t really help enough as Nebraska stays at #18 this week, on the outside looking in. All is not lost, though. Nebraska competes at home this weekend for the Masters Classic, always a scoring boon, and would have a chance to move as high as 15th if things go just right. Within its control, Nebraska can guarantee moving back ahead of Washington by scoring 197.200. It has happened before.


19. Missouri Tigers

NQS: 196.255
Previous ranking: 17

Road Score 1: 196.475
Road Score 2: 196.450
Road Score 3: 196.200
Home/Road Score 1: 196.550
Home/Road Score 2: 196.250
Home/Road Score 3: 195.900
NQS: 196.255

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 196.385
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

A 9.7-a-thon on Sunday saddled Missouri with an unusable score and a loss to DII Lindenwood, meaning that while Missouri does have a shot to move ahead of Nebraska this weekend, the team cannot move up any higher than 18th this week and would need to start going high 196s and probably 197s in both of the remaining meets to have a look at a top 16 spot at this point.


20. Arkansas Razorbacks

NQS: 196.170
Previous ranking: 20

Road Score 1: 197.000
Road Score 2: 196.175
Road Score 3: 196.125
Home/Road Score 1: 196.375
Home/Road Score 2: 196.350
Home/Road Score 3: 195.825
NQS: 196.170

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 196.405
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

A season-high 197.000 at Elevate got Arkansas back into the outside of the outside race for a top-16 spot, with a higher peak possible score after next weekend than Missouri has in 19th place. Like Missouri, Arkansas would probably have to repeat that 197 feat in both of the next two meets to have a shot at the top 16, but it is not wholly out of the question.


FAST FORWARD NOISES

Here, we hit the portion of the rankings where the teams are not realistically in contention for a seeded regionals place but are definitely going to advance to regionals in the top 36. So, there’s not a ton riding on the individual scores from here on out other than avoiding the play-ins—and with all the geographical-placement and regional-assignment decisions involved, those play-ins are going to be very hard to prognosticate. We just have to hope that ranking fairness is prioritized over geography in those assignments. Otherwise riot.

Anyway, let’s fast forward to the teams closer to the danger zone to see what they need to do from here on out.


29. Maryland Terrapins

NQS: 195.605
Previous ranking: 34

Road Score 1: 195.975
Road Score 2: 195.500
Road Score 3: 195.325
Home/Road Score 1: 196.525
Home/Road Score 2: 195.950
Home/Road Score 3: 195.275
NQS: 195.605

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 195.855
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

Maryland was the big winner of the weekend, gaining four tenths of RQS across two meets —a 195.975 along with a 196.525 at a home meet that bestowed scoring records of some description upon all of the four teams involved. Maryland has now moved from the danger zone into what is basically a safe position for regionals qualification in the span of a single weekend. It’s not a guarantee yet, but things are looking good.


30. New Hampshire Wildcats

NQS: 195.570
Previous ranking: 30

Road Score 1: 196.025
Road Score 2: 195.375
Road Score 3: 194.950
Home/Road Score 1: 196.175
Home/Road Score 2: 196.000
Home/Road Score 3: 195.500
NQS: 195.570

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 195.815
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

New Hampshire went 196 for the third time this season over the weekend, and I have a hard time envisioning a team with three 196s missing out on regionals this year. This weekend, UNH will have a chance to drop that one 194—the only thing standing between this team and definite safety—and even with a mid-195, the outlook will be very solid. The only pressure here is that New Hampshire hosts conference championships this year, so this weekend is the only remaining opportunity to drop that road score.


31. Arizona Wildcats

NQS: 195.550
Previous ranking: 28

Road Score 1: 196.450
Road Score 2: 195.400
Road Score 3: 195.250
Home/Road Score 1: 195.975
Home/Road Score 2: 195.650
Home/Road Score 3: 195.475
NQS: 195.550

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 195.745
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

Another case of trouble-bars over the weekend left Arizona with an uncountable score—and a drop of three ranking spots into a position much closer to the danger zone. Arizona is still in the driver’s seat and should advance to regionals, but competing at home this weekend, won’t have an opportunity to drop that 195.250 road score until the conference championship.


32. Central Michigan Chippewas

NQS: 195.430
Previous ranking: 37

Road Score 1: 196.175
Road Score 2: 195.875
Road Score 3: 195.175
Home/Road Score 1: 195.775
Home/Road Score 2: 195.275
Home/Road Score 3: 195.050
NQS: 195.430

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 195.655
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

Central Michigan completed the turnaround with a very usable 195.875 against Kentucky, giving the team three very solid scores that will be above the cutoff point and two meets left to gain a couple more. CMU is not safe yet and could fall behind Iowa this week, but is in solid-enough position to know that it will be in the top 36 after this weekend regardless of what happens.


33. Iowa Hawkeyes

NQS: 195.420
Previous ranking: 31

Road Score 1: 196.450
Road Score 2: 195.375
Road Score 3: 195.300
Home/Road Score 1: 196.250
Home/Road Score 2: 195.400
Home/Road Score 3: 194.775
NQS: 195.420

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 195.755
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

A 195.300 at Washington improved Iowa’s NQS a little but did not fully do the job since that score is below the presumed cutoff point. It means there’s still more work to do, mainly in getting rid of that unusable 194.775. The potential to drop that score is why Iowa’s max NQS after this week is higher than that of Arizona or Central Michigan. Get that done, and Iowa will be looking pretty safe once again.


34. UIC Flames

NQS: 195.340
Previous ranking: 33

Road Score 1: 196.150
Road Score 2: 195.650
Road Score 3: 195.250
Home/Road Score 1: 195.500
Home/Road Score 2: 195.200
Home/Road Score 3: 195.100
NQS: 195.340

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 195.550
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

UIC managed an essential 196 over the weekend to stay in the top 36 and develop a larger peak for itself should that kind of score be maintained over the next two weeks. The main goal, of course, will be staying in the top 36, which UIC can achieve for another week by scoring 195.450 in its next meet. That score is critical because it is possible for UIC to drop out of the top 36 this week with a bad score if other teams deliver. UIC has to keep getting the numbers.


35. Kent State Golden Flashes

NQS: 195.270
Previous ranking: 32

Road Score 1: 195.800
Road Score 2: 195.550
Road Score 3: 194.450
Home/Road Score 1: 195.725
Home/Road Score 2: 195.700
Home/Road Score 3: 194.925
NQS: 195.270

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 195.540
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

It all can change so quickly. No sooner had Kent State burst into the top 36 than a 47-a-thon in its home finale led to an usuable score and a drop of three spots in the rankings, right into the churning realm of danger. The score this weekend, then, takes on added significance as Kent State needs to get a real, countable number to ensure staying in the top 36 for another week. The good news is—with that 194.4 still to drop—the number Kent State needs is just 195.150. It really should happen.


36. George Washington Colonials

NQS: 195.250
Previous ranking: 35

Road Score 1: 195.350
Road Score 2: 195.250
Road Score 3: 194.975
Home/Road Score 1: 195.400
Home/Road Score 2: 195.350
Home/Road Score 3: 195.325
NQS: 195.250

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 195.335
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

George Washington is just staying alive in 36th position right now, but the 195.250 scored over the weekend is once again not really doing to job to maintain a solid NQS because the cutoff point is going to be higher than that. While GW sits at #36 right now, both Illinois and Lindenwood have higher peak scores after this weekend, so even with a season high, it may find itself on the outside of the group come next Monday. There’s going to be some hoping other teams miss in GW’s future.


37. Illinois Illini

NQS: 195.225
Previous ranking: 36

Road Score 1: 195.650
Road Score 2: 195.525
Road Score 3: 194.675
Home/Road Score 1: 196.075
Home/Road Score 2: 195.175
Home/Road Score 3: 195.100
NQS: 195.225

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 195.505
Meets remaining: 3
Road meets remaining: 3

Illinois got its desperately necessary 196 over the weekend but nonetheless has fallen into the drop zone because that’s the only high score for Illinois so far this season and gets removed as part of NQS. What that 196 does mean, however, is that Illinois now has a higher peak than it did before if that kind of scoring can be maintained. Illinois also has a two-meet weekend coming up, providing more opportunities than the other teams have to get the necessary numbers. Illinois needs at least one score of 195.600 this weekend to know that it will move up into the top 36 for next Monday. Should be doable, but…


38. UC Davis Aggies

NQS: 195.215
Previous ranking: 38

Road Score 1: 195.450
Road Score 2: 195.225
Road Score 3: 194.950
Home/Road Score 1: 195.525
Home/Road Score 2: 195.400
Home/Road Score 3: 195.050
NQS: 195.215

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 195.310
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

A solid 195.400 over the weekend keeps Davis alive, but only just. Davis has a lower peak score than any team ranked above (and lower than Lindenwood ranked just below), which means that Davis is not controlling its own destiny this week. Davis needs a season high, needs other teams to miss, and needs to do fantastically at conference championships to get in there.


39. Lindenwood Lions

NQS: 195.135
Previous ranking: 41

Road Score 1: 195.900
Road Score 2: 195.350
Road Score 3: 195.275
Home/Road Score 1: 195.650
Home/Road Score 2: 194.850
Home/Road Score 3: 194.550
NQS: 195.135

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 195.405
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

A second-best-in-program-history 195.900 has kept hope alive for Lindenwood to make regionals as a DII team. Most critically, Lindenwood has a higher peak score than Davis and George Washington after this weekend, so any score of 195.575 or higher (competing against another DI school this coming weekend at Arkansas) would mean at the very least that Lindenwood would move up to #37, in “next team in” position going to the final weekend of the season. It’s still possible.


40. Michigan State Spartans

NQS: 195.040
Previous ranking: 39

Road Score 1: 195.850
Road Score 2: 195.025
Road Score 3: 194.900
Home/Road Score 1: 195.425
Home/Road Score 2: 195.225
Home/Road Score 3: 194.625
NQS: 195.040

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 195.285
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 1

A 195.025 at Elevate wasn’t quite good enough for MSU since that score is now guaranteed to count and is well below the regionals cutoff point. There’s still a chance to move up (MSU’s peak NQS after next week is higher than the current NQS for the 35-39 teams), but like the other teams here, that would require big scores and help from multiple other schools.


41. Utah State Aggies

NQS: 195.035
Previous ranking: 40

Road Score 1: 196.075
Road Score 2: 195.275
Road Score 3: 195.025
Home/Road Score 1: 194.975
Home/Road Score 2: 194.975
Home/Road Score 3: 194.925
NQS: 195.035

Maximum possible NQS after next meet: 195.265
Meets remaining: 2
Road meets remaining: 2

It’s going to be really tough for Utah State at this point, but it is still possible, especially because Utah State will be going to UCLA to compete in the Val Finale this weekend. There’s every reason to expect that USU can get a season high at that meet, into the 196s, which would keep hope alive one week longer to snatch a spot at the last minute. But I don’t see it happening without scoring a 196 this weekend.


It’s still mathematically possible for some of the teams ranked below Utah State to get into the regionals positions, but it’s highly unlikely at this point with so many teams ranked above them and would require help in addition to massive, season-high scores at all remaining meets. If any of them manage a big score this coming weekend, I’ll add them to the group in the final NQS scenario outlook next week.


IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY

There’s not much time left to qualify to regionals, which means we get to play “If the Season Ended Today” and have it be kind of realistic. If the season ended today, here’s how the seeded teams would be placed.

Georgia Regional
[1] Oklahoma
[8] Georgia
[9] Michigan
[16] Cal

Michigan Regional
[2] UCLA
[7] Michigan
[10] Kentucky
[14] BYU**

Oregon State Regional
[3] Florida
[6] Utah
[11] Alabama
[15] Oregon State**

LSU Regional
[4] LSU
[5] Denver
[12] Auburn
[13] Boise State

**BYU and Oregon State must switch spots from what their rankings prescribe to avoid a host conflict.

Have fun with trying to do geographical placement for the rest of the teams. I was going to do that and then stopped because it’s a big old mess and impossible. Here are the remaining teams:

Washington, Nebraska, Missouri Arkansas, Arizona State, Ohio State, Stanford, Penn State, Southern Utah, Iowa State, NC State, West Virginia, Maryland, New Hampshire, Arizona, Central Michigan, Iowa, UIC, Kent State, George Washington.

Five teams have to go to each site, the bottom 2 participating in the Thursday play-in. They’re supposed to be placed geographically, with attention to avoiding conference rematches when possible. The winner of the play-in goes into the Friday session with the top and bottom seeds in it. Remember to show your work.

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8 thoughts on “Ranking Watch: Week 10”

  1. What will they do with all the west schools? If you send Wash, ASU, Stanford to Ore state which already has Utah, then U of A does play in there – seven of 8 Pac schools at the same regional?

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    1. it’s a good thing the regionals are all in different parts of the country

      except wait, that’s not true

      at least the oregon state regional is in a different part of the country

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    2. Arizona will probably be a play-in team either at LSU or Oregon I would guess. ASU probably gets set to LSU.

      Washington and Stanford is a toss up, both could go to Oregon or one could go to Michigan. Didn’t Michigan miss Nationals last time Stanford was in their regional? I vaguely recall Stanford and Auburn tying for first place in 2016, I think and Michigan missing out. I think Michigan also just barely avoided finishing behind Eastern Michigan as well.

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  2. I think Florida likes this placement and will be hoping it holds. The Gators look pretty good to cruise into Nationals, while Utah, Alabama, and (host) Oregon State battle for the second spot. Plus whatever schools end up getting placed there – I presume Stanford goes while Washington is re-routed to LSU or Michigan.Or would it be the other way around since the Huskies have a higher NQS… So many decisions. Then there’s Arizona State, Arizona and Utah State.

    I think Arizona and Utah State could be the play in at Oregon but I can’t recall if I’m confusing my Utah and Arizona schools. I have a headache.

    Oh it would be so cool if Lindenwood qualified to the D1 regionals – has a D2 school ever done that before?

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      1. Thanks. Wow I didn’t realize it happened recently.

        I’m wondering today if there are any “gymnasts” on NCAA teams who are there because their parents and the coaches conspired to cheat them into a good school so they can have four years of partying…

        Any schools ever have weird names on their roster who never compete or show up?

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  3. This would be my best guess at geographical placement:

    1. UGA — Okla (1), UGA (8), Minnesota (9), Cal (16) and then (20) Arkansas, (24) Penn St, (27) NC State, (30) NH, and (36) GWU

    2. LSU – LSU (4), Den (5), Aub (12), BSU (13), and then (18) Nebraska, (21) ASU, (28) WVU, (29) Maryland, and (35) Kent St

    3. Mich – UCLA (2), Mich (7), Kent (10), BYU (14), and then (17) Washington, (22) Ohio St, (26) Iowa St, (32) CMU, and (34) UIC

    4. OSU – UF (3), Utah (6), Bama (11), OSU (15), and then (19) Missouri, (23) Stan, (25) So. Utah, (31) ARI, and (33) Iowa

    The OSU regional is still PAC-heavy. You could flip Stan and Ari out for similarly ranked teams in the other regionals (maybe with an Ohio St, Penn St, or WVU) but then teams would have longer more expensive trips. Plus, with only 4 sites and conferences having 8-10 teams, you’ll have re-matches no matter what.

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  4. Don’t sleep on LSU. I think they may end up peaking at the right time and while they are less consistent overall in getting top scores, a really good day for them can match the top 3. And they probably only have to have two really good days to make it to the finals (maybe one moderately good day in the second day of regionals and then a really good day on the first day of nationals). If they do that, given the performance at the beginning of the year, the year will be a success. And IF they do that, I wouldn’t count them out for a chance at the whole shebang.

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