Selection Camp Live Blog

Over the next two days, 13 gymnasts will compete for 5 spots on the world championships team. Today’s competition is streamed on the USAG YouTube page, beginning at 4:45pm ET, and obviously I’ll be following all the routines here.

I’ll keep a live score table going at the top of the page, and then skill-by-skill analysis for each rotation lower down as we go.

VTUBBBFXTOTAL
Simone Biles15.35013.85014.55014.80058.550
Sunisa Lee14.55015.00014.55014.10058.200
Grace McCallum14.70012.70014.40013.75055.550
Morgan Hurd14.40012.55014.05013.10054.100
Jade Carey15.25013.35013.40013.90055.900
Leanne Wong13.20014.15014.05013.30054.700
Kara Eaker14.00013.90015.20014.00057.100
Jordan Chiles13.10013.85013.05013.20053.200
Aleah Finnegan13.20013.200
MyKayla Skinner15.05013.50013.65013.85056.050
Trinity Thomas14.00013.45013.35011.75052.550
Faith Torrez14.70013.50013.10013.55054.850
Emily Lee14.40013.05014.20011.80053.450

One thing worth pointing out before we begin is that the US will announce 6 names following the selection camp, without necessarily specifying who the alternate is. It’s typically pretty obvious to figure out who the intended alternate is through context and team permutations, but perhaps not this year with such a close race for those last couple spots.

My key routines

Kara Eaker BB – It’s essential for Eaker to hit beam both days of selection competition. When she hits the kind of beam she can and scores close to a 15, it’s almost mathematically impossible to keep her off a team. If she misses, and her beam scores/average from camp is more like a low 14 or even in the 13s, it’s very easy to just take the next best all-around gymnast instead.

Morgan Hurd UB – In the absence of Riley McCusker, Hurd’s bars routine is the logical, seemingly necessary choice to go in a team final. If she hits mid-14s on bars again at camp, especially if all the other athletes (except Lee and Biles) are stuck around 13.9, that makes for an extremely compelling argument.

Grace McCallum VT – Especially post-McCusker, many prospective teams feature McCallum in the alternate role. To get onto a team of five, her vault needs to be significant tenths clear of the rabble of DTYs, and it would help her case if she could outscore Lee on floor as well.

Leanne Wong BB – Wong is probably in the position where she needs to put up a strong AA performance here to get onto a team that way, but her 14.550 on beam on the second day of nationals was a “take me for this routine” kind of score. She may be in competition with her teammate Eaker, where if Eaker isn’t 15ing on beam, then Wong’s beam routine (plus her strong DTY) may combine to look more compelling.


The format of the competition is out. They’re doing five rotations with two rotation groups, and in the middle three rotations, both rotation groups will be going at the same time, but in the first and last rotation, there will be just one group going.

Looks like they want everyone starting on floor to mimic qualification at worlds. USAG already warning us that we won’t see every routine. But shouldn’t you alternate routines? So that Tom and company can see everyone? Just me? OK cool.

The start time on the live stream just jumped back 15 minutes, in case you need to take that into consideration. Annnnd now we’re back to the original time.

The first rotation will feature only Group A (Biles, Carey, Chiles, Eaker, Finnegan, Hurd, Wong) on floor. The rest will start in rotation 2.

The stream has started. This relaxed-seeming atmosphere is really not matching my internal state.

#LaurentWedgiePick

We’ve already had an Eaker/Acre moment.

Rotation 1

We’ve seen double doubles from Simone and Carey and a DLO from Hurd and DLO 1/1 from Chiles so far in the warmup.

Eaker – FX – front lay to front 2/1, stuck with some knees – this floor is not lined up at all – 3/1, just a hair under rotated but nice form – double Y spin, definite credit, nice – 2.5 to front full, small shuffle – switch ring and split leap full – double pike, a bit deep, slide back. split ring 1/2 to finish. Nice start. 5.4/14.000. OK NOW.

DESTROYING ME:

Biles – FX – triple double, step back, stays in bounds – Biles to stag, very solid – switch 1/1, definitely around – wolf turn double, one of her smooth ones – front full through to full in, a little short with a hop forwar d- switch to split leap 1.5, I’d say that was around – double double, that one with a larger bounce back and OOB.

Very long wait to come up with Simone’s score. NO ONE WAS READY FOR THE SET FROM THIS UNKNOWN. 6.7/14.800

Wong – FX – solid Dos Santos to stag, comfortable landing – deep double arabian with a fiarly large lunge out – 3/1, very secure landing – popa a little bouncy – leaned out of double L turn but may get credit for finishing the turn first, borderline – 2.5, struggles on the landing, large lunge out and loses her knees a bit. Got that upgrade from the 2/1, but probably loses more in E than it was worth because of the landing. 5.2/13.300

Carey – FX – Moors bounce back, just OOB it looked like – double L, gets leg around, a little heel hesitation – DLO 1/1, slide back and an awkward little stumble on the carpet and OOB again – double double tuck, nailed that landing, more typical for her on that one – split leap 1.5 attempt, I’d give just the full – front tuck throigh to double tuck, solid landing, chest a little down. Not her strongest. 6.1/13.900

30 minutes, 4 routines. NBC would be proud.

Chiles – FX – double wolf is around, tentative but around – her DLO 1/1 is quite nice, and a very solid landing – DLO, chest down a bit, bounce back – switch ring – switch side 1/2, good amplitude – 1.5 through to double tuck, chest low, slide back – split leap 1/1, around, not quite to 180 – front 2/1, comes up way short and falls. Drat. That DLO 1/1 was so good too. 5.6/13.200.

I have some concerns about these scores. Like a 7.6 E score on floor with a fall.

So Eaker outscored Carey on floor.

Hurd – FX – double double tucked, just a little over and a slide back into the corner, stays in bounds – DLO, another medium bounce back, stayed in – switch ring, nice – split ring full, probably credit as 1/2 but close – front lay to just a front full, and then it looked like she tripped on choreography or going into a leap and it was weird? – split jump full, nice – double pike, a bit short, hop forward. 5.2/13.100

Now it’s warmups for the second rotation.

I guess Eaker was the winner of that first rotation.

Rotation 2

E Lee – FX – nice DLO, nearly stuck, small step back – really sluggish looking 2.5, can’t punch out of it and just ends up on her side, second fall of the day, quite a few people struggling with this floor – double tuck, slide back – double turn, not quite around – popa is nice – double pike, small step back. 4.3/11.800

Jordan Chiles just warmed up an Amanar. The landing was rough.

Torrez – FX – DLO 1/1, nice with a bounce back – split leap full – DLO, very strong, only the smallest movement – switch – switch 1/2, good extension – OK definitely took that double wolf turn to her knee – front tuck through to double tuck, bounce back – good full in, small hop back – nice routine. 5.5/13.550

Wong – VT – ooooof, really odd DTY, fall with hands down. And her won in the warmup was so high and good, too. 5.4/13.200

Thomas – FX – switch leap full – Biles – YEOUCH, short and falls, but glad she didn’t hurt herself because that could have been a hyperextension landing – DLO is nice, bounce back – switch ring – split leap 1.5, definitely around, that was good – front layout, no punch and crumples into a ball. This floor rotation has been a disaster – double pike, deep but holds it. 5.3/11.75

So we didn’t see Jade’s first vault. Good thing it is not significant. But she just nailed an Amanar as her second vault, so that works, just a small step. Solid vault.

She got 15.25 for her Cheng.

S Lee – FX – double double tuck, chest is a knee-eater but she landed it, slide back – DLO, small slide, hit – wolf turn triple, got it around, followed by the double, hit – 1.5 to front full, some knees, a little hop – switch ring – splti leap full – double tuck, bounce back. Some chest positions, but she successfully survived the floor of death.

Well Morgan Hurd just vaulted out of frame, but it looked like a bounce back on her DTY. They just have her a

Eaker – VT – didn’t get the best block on her 1.5 and had to tuck a little more than usual but landed it, hop to the side. They’ll all using an extra mat for vault so far. 5.0/14.000

Skinner – FX – Moors, basically stuck landing right on the line – front tuck through to full in, also solid landing – L hop full to switch leap full attempt, probably switch 1/2 credit – double double tuck, a little deep but held onto the landing – split leap 1/1 attempt was basically completed in sissone angle, so that will be a major E issue – upgrades to a 3/1 final pass and hits, a little under but around enough for credit. Good hit.

McCallum – FX – important routine for her as some people have struggled on floor. She can help her case if she doesn’t. double double tuck, shorter like nationals with a lunge forward – front lay to front 2/1 to front tuck, under on the front tuck with a bound – switch 1/2 – wolf turn smoothly around as usual – full in was good, just a little slide forward – split leap full, good height – double tuck, fine, small slide. She got through. 5.7/13.750

They just posted an Amanar score for Morgan Hurd. But like, no, right? Right?

Apparently Simone went 15.350 for her Cheng.

We also have Sunisa Lee with 14.100 on floor.

USAG is also posting the 14.800 score for Hurd on vault. I think we saw her do a DTY in the background though, so I’m anticipating a correction.

ROTATION 3

Thomas – VT – almost NCAA ready 1.5 until she stepped forward at the end, just a little bit of knees. But good. 5.0/14.000

Chiles – UB – piked tkatchev, good – toe full, a it late into tkatchev to gienger, hit – piked jaeger, solid – bail, a bit better vertical position, just a little hip angle there – FTDT, a little fling out, hop. 5.6/13.850

The Hurd score has been fixed to 14.400 for a DTY. Sanity restored.

Skinner – VT – good Cheng, aside from the one-arm and whatnot, step back but chest pretty well up on landing. 6.0/15.050

Hurd – UB – Important routine for her – inbar Shap to Stalder full to tkatchev – good legs on Ricna to pak – very clean – annnnnnd struggles on a toe on attempt attempt, has to recast, goes over and then comes off the bar. Oh dear dear dear.

Skinner – VT – Hits her Amanar – large lunge forward and some knees, but a hit vault –

Hurd resumes with her dismount combination, but the damage done. Trouble routine there. 5.9/12.550

Score posted for Sunisa Lee on vault that doesn’t make mathematical sense, so we shall see.

McCallum – VT – solid DTY, well controlled landing, small hop – some knees. 5.4/14.700

14.550 is a good DTY score for Lee.

Emily Lee with a strong DTY of her own, small slide back, good direction, knees. 5.4/14.400

Eaker – UB – Church to Pak, good – toe Shap 1/2, very nice leg position – clear hip to a full that’s very late – toe 1/2 to piked jaseger, comfortable – DLO, stuck. Solid for her. 5.5/13.900

Torrez – VT – just a bit short on her DTY, small adjustment forward. 5.4/14.700

The length and inconsistency of this meet is going to send my trash corpse right into a coffin.

Biles – UB – weiler 1/2 to toe shap good – tkatchev – full to piked tkatchev to pak, solidly done – short hs before her van leeuwen, but hit well, good legs – double double tucked attempt, takes it right to her hands. OK nothing matters don’t worry. 6.2/13.850

Wong – UB – short first hs – inabr to Komova, hit – pak to stalder shap 1/2, better – inbar 1/2 to jaeger, hit – some loose back and handstand moments – toe full – DLO, OK, hop back. A hit. It works. 5.9/14.150

Carey – UB – Ray, hit – Yazhova, pretty nice – small arch on hs – Shap to Bhardwaj, legs but not extreme – Van Leeuwen, some knees – clear hip, short of vertical – full turn – FTDT, hit routine – a very “good for Jade” bars, but it was a hit. 5.3/13.350

Rotation 4

Skinner – UB – small hestiation in first hs – weiler 1/2 with leg s- shap to tkatchev, close catch but worked through – Ray to Pak – a little arch on low bar – Van Leeuwen with some crazy legs – double double tucked dismount, quite deep with a lung eto the side. 5.8/13.500. Well, she pumped up the difficulty enough to get a score I guess?

We’ve missed the beginning of Hurd on beam – split ring jump and dance combo looked lovely – really tentative switch leap with a check to the side – upgrades back to the full in dismount! It was pretty good, lunge back. Not sure what happened on some critical elements at the beginning though. 5.8/14.050

McCallum – UB – weiler 1/2, small arch – Maloney to tkatchev, hip angle but caught – takes her piked Ricna too far and falls. Well, no one gets to go to anything. Resumes – pak with some legs – toe Shap 1/2 toe full to FTDT, a litttle low bit secure. 5.5/12.700

Honestly, we’ve seen Hurd and McCallum fall on floor and Wong fall out vault, so it almost turns into a wash among them. But you wonder if Admiral Rank Order will see it the same way.

Eaker – BB – switch leap to split ring, usual – y spin good – aerial to split ring to back handspring, smooth combination – side aerial to loso loso, very secure – side somi, good – switch ring to bhs to Korbut, pretty – switch to switch side, solid – bhs bhs 2.5, nearly stuck. Good. 6.8/15.200

Eaker had a niiiice day. She of everyone did the best to help her chances.

Emily Lee just held onto a piked jaeger on bars – finishes DLO. 5.3/13.050

Torrez with a bit of legs on her shap to pak combo – Shap 1/2, small leg break – piked jaeger, feet but pretty solid – bail to shoot – DLO, held the landing well. 5.4/13.500

Biles – BB – joining midway with aerial to jumps, broken connection – bhs loso loso, just a small lean – switch to switch 1/2 to back pike, kept the connection going – side aerial, solid – split jump 1/2 from side position – bhs bhs FTDT, good. 6.2/14.550

Thomas – UB – can’t get up to hnadstand on weiler 1/2 and has to do it again – full to shap to clear hip, hit – tkatchev to pak, nice – toe shap 1/2 – DLO, nice and floaty and nearly stuck. Good finish. 5.5/13.450

Wong – BB – switch to straddle, check, bit of leg up on the check – bhs loso loso, hit, small lean – L turn is well controlled into full turn – switch ring, hit – aerial to split ring jump, good – side aerial, secure – side somi, hit – 3/1 dismount, a bit under, hop back. But a good hit. She needed that. 5/8/14.050

Carey – BB – aerial to split to straddle, solid – bhs loso to whatever, a bit of legs and a check – split leap to side aerial, secure – switch leap 3/4, split jump 1/2 from side, not to 180 – switch to switch 1/2, short to back tuck, maybe connection but a little slow for me – double tuck, step back. 5.5/13.400

We didn’t see Sunisa on bars (cool!), but she went 15.000 and is on the team.

Finnegan – BB – she exists! araibian to split to jump jump 1/2 combination! Just pulls the combo through, deep on that first arabian – hits her two loso series – switch to sissone, hit – split jump 1/2 from side, very nice split psotion, check – split ring jump – aerial, solid – side aerialt o bhs 1.5, off line with a hop to the side. 5.2/13.200

Chiles – BB – full turn – bhs loso loso series, solid – aerial to straddle, small pause before bhs there – straddle jump 1/2 from side position – side aerial to split, short on split – switch, can’t connect out of it and does a little hesitation hop that was fun – side somi, hit – double pike, bounce back

Time for final rotation warmup now. Basically what we’ve seen so far is Eaker, Carey, and Lee having really strong days and helping their cases to join Simone. Then we have to decide about Hurd, McCallum, Wong for the final spot, which would have been a pretty easy decision if Hurd had hit bars, but alas no. She’ll need to hit that as one of her events tomorrow.

Rotation 5

McCallum – BB – candle mount, hit – wolf turn triple, very smooth – wolf double, same – staddle 1/2 from side, hit with a lean – side aerial loso loso, hit with feet and a small lean – aerial – sissone to full turn – double pike, just a little down but hit. Solid routine. 5.7/14.400

The idea that a human person would get an 8.7 E on beam though

E Lee – BB – full turn witha little check – punch front, solid – bhs bhs to layout, very nice amplitude on that layout – check on switch 1/2 – side aerial to loso, secure – switch ring – split jump 1/2 from side – aerial, check – bhs bhs double pike, chest over but secure. 6.1/14.200

Torrez – BB – back full, nailed it – bhs loso loso, also very strong – switch to switch 1/2 to back tuck, nice – punch front and falls, was going so well before that – split leap to side aerial – pretty good speed in connection of side jumps too – double pike, large lunge back. 5.9/13.100

Thomas – BB – switch leap mount – split to tuck jump 1/2, lovely but not connected to the mount – side somi, hit – full turn – aerial to split to Korbut – side aerial – sweitch side to split jump 1/2 front side to straddle 1/2 from side – got a little rushed in those combinations toward the end but kept the combo going – one-arm bhs to loso – switch to switch 1/2, a bit short with a check – 2/1, bounce back. Nice way to finish. 5.3/13.350

S Lee – BB – wolf turn triple, good, only the slightest bit of arming it – split jump to sissone, pretty – aerial, hit – bhs bhs layout, fairly high, just a small shuffle back – switch to switch 1/2 to back tuck, got low in that combination, on the 1/2 and back tuck but held on – side aerial and pulls out of it with no combination – switch ring – split ring jump – double tuck, a bit deep, lunge back. 6.0/14.550

So this will be interesting. Skinner is in line for a very high AA placement with a hit beam here.

SKinner – BB – candle mount, teetering there – bhs back full, stuck, crazy legs – pause before bhs so no combination – side aerial with a lean, broken series there too – switch to switch 1/2 to back tuck, secure – she’s hitting this set, won’t get the D she wants because of pausing in series – split jump 1/2 from side – L turn, possible credit as full turn, connected to full turn – she added in the FTDT dismount, landed it with hips well over, step to the side. 5.8/13.650

58.200 for Lee. She comes up only a few tenths back of Simone.

Skinner finishes 4th AA and probably won’t make the team. This story sounds familiar.

So, just a heads up, your highest-scoring team based only on today would have Skinner on it, along with Carey, Lee, Biles, and Eaker. I don’t think that will actually happen because of bars, but just know that’s what the team would be.

That would also be your RANK ORDER team, so there’s that.

I am still agreeing with myself from about an hour ago, that of course Biles is a lock. Sunisa Lee has to be considered a lock after today, you want Carey on vault and floor, and Eaker had a great day with that undeniable beam score. And then you’re left looking at a 6th member. You’re good with Biles/Lee/Eaker on beam. You’re good with Biles/Lee/Carey on floor. You have Biles/Carey on vault (and if Lee vaults the way she scored today, then you might be OK with her as your third vault, though that hasn’t typically been how her DTY fares. And then you have bars, with Biles/Lee but really would like a 3rd good routine.

That’s why, even though Hurd had a weak day today, she should still be considered an option. That bars routine.

Skinner has at least got herself in the mix by being on the highest-scoring team of the day.

Wong is in contention because her bars score would be so useful based on today’s performance, but the DTY is typically key for her, and that fall really hurt.

McCallum is right there as well, with the 6th-best AA score of the day, but the bars fall didn’t help. She’s your “well, we have her for vault and floor and she’s far more useful as a backup on bars and beam than Skinner.”

What this comes down to is how much weight you’re putting on today alone. We had some uncharacteristic falls that I would typically throw out as the kind of thing that happens, but if you’re all about THIS IS THE TRIAL, then it’s bad news for people like Hurd and Wong who didn’t finish well in the AA and had falls.

If we use the MCCLURE system—now take the last 4 domestic meets (camp, 2 days of nationals, classic), drop the low score and average the remaining 3, your highest-scoring team would be Biles, Lee, Eaker, Carey, and Hurd, with Hurd hanging around there to do bars because today’s score is dropped. That’s the method that was used to decide the men’s team for worlds, and that’s where I would be right now, though I think Hurd has to hit bars tomorrow to get back in that spot.

221 thoughts on “Selection Camp Live Blog”

  1. This just in: China has offered to send over their best FX OOB alignment specialists to help bring us up to this century’s standards. In this age of tariff wars, that is quite a nice offer that we probably should take them up on.

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    1. I haven’t seen an announcement about why she only competed beam, but her father passed away less than a month ago. I would assume her training & mental prep were disrupted surrounding that. Perhaps she and her coaches felt like she wasn’t really at a place to contend for a worlds team spot and it made sense to just focus on showing one solid routine and getting re-centered. But that’s just a guess that could be totally off-base… perhaps she had a minor injury (though hopefully not, obv).

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  2. So is it safe to assume we won’t be seeing Suni’s bars? (pretty sure I heard cheers for her during Simone’s BB). Guess that’s to lure us to the post-event youtube…

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  3. IIIIIIII have no idea what this meet told us- it confirmed Simone, Sunisa, Jade, and Kara (maybe it actually proved Kara- maybe that’s what it gave us). But yikes everyone else.

    Grace looks great…on all the events but bars- where they need someone.

    Morgan looks…off- but I don’t think a fluke bar routine actually hurt her yet…

    Leanne actually proved an asset on beam and bars but looked off elsewhere…

    Uhhhhhhhh now what?

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    1. Yeah the meet showed that the team is Biles, Sunisa Lee, Eaker and Carey. Skinner did great, should be on the team.

      Skinners guaranteed 15ish vault (Vs a solid 14.5 DTY) nets about the same as the points Hurd or McCallum can bring in bars over Kara Eaker.

      What to do about quals? Kara Eaker won’t make AA finals over Sunisa Lee, it’s ok if she doesn’t do AA. Or Mykayla can skip vault in quals and do in TF, the opposite of Maggie Nichols giving up AA so Dowell can bars. In TF scoring with this level of preparation Skinner should be on the team vaulting.

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  4. Team is going to be Biles, Suni Lee, and Kara Eaker. Carey also probably did enough, with VT mitigating her less-than-stellar FX (which was still Top 3 on the day), though Skinner is putting pressure on her for specialist role.

    Tomorrow the others MUST improve to make their cases for the remaining two spots. It’s probably still pretty open – the team really wants Morgan’s usual bars routine, but if she isn’t hitting I think just about anyone could jump into that spot.

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  5. Rumor has it that the gymnasts from this group who are not selected for Worlds will be breaking away from the US to form their own team (for Atlantis or some other interesting country) and will compete at Worlds and the Olympics where they will kick our ass.

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    1. They could all just move to Puerto Rico and petition for transfer with FIG, no need to change citizenship or anything. TBH I’m shocked Laurie hasn’t done that since her parents are PR and there’s ZERO chance she’ll make it Tokyo otherwise.

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  6. I wonder if the mcCusker situation has some of the girls rattled. I mean it’s got to be hard watching a friend have something like that happen to them.

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  7. Skinner doesn’t have the 3rd best floor score. Jade’s is 3rd best. Suni’s is 2nd best. My guess for team is Biles, S. Lee, Carey, Eaker, and McCallum.

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  8. Damnit, with Riley out, Morgan would be been the perfect fit with her top-3 bars and a consistent DTY. But that fall could really change the picture…

    Also, after today we probably want Kara doing the AA, right?

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      1. Yeah, but does anyone want to see McCallum’s bars in TF, though? I think if everyone hits it will come down to Grace’s vault vs. Morgan’s bars, which is super super close.

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    1. I think the AA lineup will probably be decided closer to the actual competition. Kara has shown that she is a contender for it, but whoever grabs the final team spot may also be competitive for it. For example, if either Grace or Morgan wind up on the team, they would certainly also be under consideration, regardless of what they looked like today, just based on their track records.

      I think if Morgan hits UB tomorrow and otherwise looks good in training she could still get on the team, but could be looking at the alternate spot if she doesn’t show consistency there by quals.

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      1. Morgan will probably get it because of her history. She didnt do well last year at camp, nor the podium training legit leading up to the competition day before, but there she was.

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  9. Was that Wong with her hair bow on the back of her bun instead of the front? I really like it! Makes it a little more interesting instead of just cutesy.

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  10. I literally stopped watching the stream because of the slowness, have been away for about half an hour, came back to the live blog and there’s only three new routines. this comp has taken way to long.

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  11. Just wanna say, I’ve been really impressed by Faith Torrez this season. She’s still kind of flying under the radar but she’s crazy powerful and pretty consistent, the beam fall today notwithstanding. If she is able to increase her difficulty a little across the board and refine some of the little details like feet and such I think she could really challenge in the AA.

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  12. Skinner had an amazing day. I say throw her on that team as the 5th member and get three high floor and vault scores for the US. Let her and Jade battle it out for the 2 EF spots. She is a great, solid competitor and it would probably be helpful for Simone’s mental game and sanity to have another older team member from the last quad.

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    1. Her VT alone is big enough to use Kara on UB, instead of Morgan as 5th member. That’s what Mykayla has said from the beginning and the math is proving her right, especially with Riley out.

      Honestly, Mykayla having a very solid case on the team and Grace probably losing her AA spot is the news for me today. I knew Suni and Kara would tear up the AA scores again.

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      1. You are the voice of reason. With Riley out, she nets more points on vault than any of the girls on bars.

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      2. Where is the Math?
        No way does Skinner’s VT net more points with using Eaker on UB.
        Skinner has .3 over McCallum based on yesterday. With a hit UB, McCallum and Hurd will easily surpass .3 over Eaker’s 13.900. Hurd can go 14.500 (her average). Yes. Eaker hit her best UB routine that she’s ever done, but she’s never been an UB girlie before, scored a 13.600 and an 11.900 at Nationals and didn’t make the UB event finals at Pan Ams.

        Do the Math.

        Hurd 14.400/ Skinner 15.000 (-.6)
        Eaker 13.9+13.6 (drop nationals day 2)=13.75 /Hurd 14.4+14.6 (drop Trials score) =14.5 (-.75)

        They really need Hurd for TF UB.

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      1. Watch the routines of Suni again, she was overscored like Grace. How did she get a better execution in beam than Kara is beyond me. Her floor, vault and bars got generous scores too.

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  13. In your grid above, you have Skinner as top three floor finisher, but she’s actually 4th bc Eaker got 2nd.
    What a meet – Eaker 2nd on Floor and 3rd on bars!
    If Riley were in this meet I’d be EXTREMELY worried about Morgan. I hope she kills it tomorrow.
    Based on today my team is Lee, Biles, Carey, Eaker, with Morgan and Grace duking it out for the 5th spot.

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  14. Wow, huge result from Suni today. She is such a talent. I thought she was slightly overscored on FX today but that’s a quibble. Super impressed.

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    1. I’d put them both on this team.

      Biles, S Lee and Kara Eaker have the AA and bars, beam and floor finals locked up. Other girls could certainly make finals, just not over the above three. That leaves vault and TF max score.

      Carey and Skinner don’t even have to both vault in quals, one can just do it in finals to max the score.

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  15. Definitely think Kara Suni and Jade will join Simone on the team and I think it’s gonna be tight between Grace and Morgan for that last spot. My money is on that being the 6 and they’ll decide the alternate at Worlds

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  16. If Leanne hits bars and beam again tomorrow she’ll make a really compelling argument to take that last spot.

    Morgan, I don’t think, really hurt her chances on bars since it’s her first miss but she IS hurting her chances with that floor.

    I just love Grace though and want her on this team…that bars though.

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    1. It’s clear that neither Grace or Morgan will AA based on performances this year, since Suni and Kara have beat them multiple times and will likely medal on individual events as well.

      It’ll come down to Grace, Morgan or Leanne for third scores on UB and BB, since Jade is a lock for FX/VT specialist.

      Grace’s fall on UB is a huge deal, because it’s a third score needed and her AA case was on the edge already. Morgan has been a consistent solid score on UB until today and her BB is decent, but if she doesn’t hit tomorrow and Leanne does on UB/BB, then Morgan is absolutely out.

      All 3 girls wouldn’t have a case at all if Riley hit UB/BB today.

      Like

  17. Skinner is setting herself up for a possible spot in Tokyo even though she’s not making this worlds team. Carey going the individual route is the best thing for Skinner because it gives her a chance to work up to being the second best eligible vaulter and floor worker for the 4 person team.

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    1. Why is she not making this team? She makes the max score in TF by vaulting. Better than Hurds bars over Kara Eaker as the third person.

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  18. Guys, the top 6 is MCCLURE!
    Just merge Jade and Skinner since they score similarly and have same strengths.

    Haha, I take it back. Tom Forster can go based on this AA standing (but pick one athlete between Jade and Skinner).

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  19. Does anyone else also feel like Skinner is enjoying her comeback too much? lol…..I dont care if she doesn’t get named to the team….the only person showing better comeback trajectory so far is simone.

    and you never know…. tom could legitly go with AA score and have an excuse to name her over jade. skinner definitely have what it take to get that vt silver. Her fx score is pretty much nearly the same as jade on day 1….

    So if tom ever feel like he needs an excuse to not name jade because she’s already doing the individual cup anyway, he does have an excuse

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      1. Yes original poster said by AA scores.

        Skinner is 4th, she’s make it by AA score.

        She’d also make it to max the team score with her vault alone.

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  20. If I were Tom I’d take Skinner over Carey. She’s the better AA gymnast and not much separates them on VT and FX. Carey is going to the Olympics because she will get the spot from the World Cup series so it’s better to send Skinner to get the experience. Plus if Skinner looks this good after only training elite again for five months, imagine how she might look next year. Give her the chance when Carey has already secured her Olympic birth.

    Liked by 1 person

  21. Simone, Suni, Kara and Jade cover everything except a 3rd score on UB and could use a stronger VT score. Mykayla’s VT is compelling enough to make up for using Kara on UB. There’s an argument for Morgan if she can hit UB tomorrow, but Leanne’s UB/VT combo is a consideration too.

    It wasn’t just the fall on UB that hurt Morgan, it’s that it would have scored lower than Kara and Leanne’s even without it.

    In my mind: Simone, Suni, Kara and Jade are locks and Grace is the alt. That last spot is a toss up with Morgan, Leanne and Mykayla.

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    1. If Riley was here she wouldn’t be. If she hits bars tomorrow she still has a chance. Although, Skinner’s VT score will probably bring in more tenths. Than the difference between Kara/Morgan as the third uneven bars score. Morgan has regressed on all events except UB. Maybe after trials her stans will admit that.

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    2. If Riley was here she wouldn’t be. If she hits bars tomorrow she still has a chance. Although, Skinner’s VT score will probably bring in more tenths. Than the difference between Kara/Morgan as the third uneven bars score. Morgan has regressed on all events except UB. Maybe after trials her stans will admit that.

      Like

    3. Morgan’s late season peak we’ve been hearing is actually going to happen tomorrow, please disregard all scores prior to tomorrow!

      As it stands, she’s sitting pretty as #7 US AA 2019 peak score from day 2 at championships 6 weeks ago (56.65 vs today’s 54.1).

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  22. Going into this, we all knew it was the 5th spot that was up for grabs. Was it an AA spot for Grace or specialist for Morgan? Those were the strongest cases going in, but both HAD to hit UB, yet both fell on it.

    As far as I’m concerned, take Mykayla or Leanne, it’s that simple. Knowing how much they care about AA rankings and weighing the most recent scores, I think it should be Mykayla with Grace as team alt.

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    1. I so agree with this. I know a lot of people have issues with her attitude – I have in the past as well – but damn it takes guts to jump back into the toughest WAG field in the world. Not only that, she has performed very competitive routines with great composure despite only having been back a matter of months. Great to see from her.

      Like

    2. She made a HUGE improvement from nationals. It’s insane. Her floor passes were landed better and had more amplitude, she threw in a full in off beam. She’s better than she was in 2016 and she’s only 5 or 6 months into her comeback.

      Like

  23. Damn, this was a bizarre meet. Weirdly the only thing that REALLY changed in my calculus is that Leanne Wong is definitely on the team. I know she doesn’t make the MCLURE roster, but her UB routine is just too valuable, especially if Morgan’s is a question mark. Whether Leanne is on the team as an alternate will come down to Morgan’s performance tomorrow – if Morgan hits, you make Leanne the alternate; if she doesn’t, and if Leanne goes clean tomorrow as well, she makes the the team instead and Skinner gets the alternate spot on the strength of her impressive AA performance.

    Also, I know that Eaker scored 14 on UB today, but I’m not convinced by her on that apparatus and I’d rather have some insurance in the form of Leanne, who has broken 14 multiple times on UB this year.

    TL;DR: my team would be Biles, Lee, Carey, Eaker, Hurd/Wong, alternate Wong/Skinner.

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    1. Kara hits 13.8-13.9 on UB reliably. So using that +Mykayla on VT alone is better than Morgan’s UB alone. Also, if Simone or Jade miss in Q on VT, Mykayla can medal there, whereas Morgan and Leanne can’t anywhere.

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      1. Morgan can medal pretty much across the board, as she has demonstrated in the past. Her issue is getting 2 per’d out of finals.

        Leanne is a different story, agree that unless we see a lot of errors from others she wouldn’t be making a final. I think the case for Skinner is solid but again I prefer the insurance of having a third bars routine. Anyway, there’s enough depth on FX and VT already. But I wouldn’t be mad if she were on the team.

        I am still not convinced by Kara on bars – have seen her fall there or make too many errors to trust her on this apparatus.

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  24. I almost sold on even having both carey and skinner on the team. The only problem is that I think USAG doesn’t want any weak spot at all so it’s gonna come down to the bars spot tomorrow between wong and hurd.

    What they want is someone with decent beam/ub score and right now that contest is basically a wong/hurd affair.

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    1. Suni had a 14.55 on BB, that’s a 3rd score better than Morgan or Leanne by 0.5 each. If they want to bring someone just for a shaky 3rd score for UB only, then that’s messed up. Mykayla should be the 5th by AA standings and for TF score standings.

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  25. Given the choice between a solid but not spectacular third UB score and possibly the third best vaulter in the world, you have to take vault. Vault is judged almost solely hybrid d score so long as you don’t crash which McKayla and Jade do not. It’s guaranteed tenths in the bank. UB isn’t BB but there are many more things that can go wrong. If I were a coach I would prioritize vault over everything else in elite.

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  26. To me, I’m not really convinced Leanne is in the right place mentally to make it to Worlds. I don’t know. Between nationals and World Trials, she really made some nervy mistakes. I want Skinner to make it because poor girl was alternate in 2015 AND 2016. It’s more of an emotional pull than a realistic one for me, although I think she’d do a good job for the US at Worlds. I personally think Jade, Biles, Suni, and Eaker are locks. The last spot depends on who hits tomorrow.

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  27. Ah I just woke up and THE DRAMA!!!!!!

    Bummed that the gymnasts I don’t like did so well just bc they’re not the ones I wanted to see at Worlds, but congrats to them, way to make a push for the team!

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    1. Well, we did say that after Pan Ams quals and then she followed up by being very unimpressive in AA finals and US nationals. But nowadays the other US AAers, minus Simone and Sunisa, are also being inconsistent! So yes… I will deal.

      I wish Kara would improve her form on her rings and her vault, but if no one’s going to deduct for them then I guess why bother.

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  28. I’m still thrown by that floor and vault set up. Neither are anything like what they’ll have at worlds, that’s a huge deal.

    I’m also still trying to wrap my mind around the scoring on many routines.
    It causes serious morale issues when there’s unfair scoring.

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  29. I truly don’t understand why literally *everyone* is expecting Carey to be on this world’s team. Y’all, she is no way gonna be on the Olympics team. Hopefully and almost definitely she makes it to Olympics, but it’ll be as an individual, NOT as part of the team. There’s no way USA will allow her to give up her individual spot and put her on the team instead cause then they will LOSE that spot (it’s not for the federation, just for the gymnast!)! With that in mind, WHY would they put her on this year’s worlds team when instead they can test out other girls innm International competition and other combos in the team format? It’s not even like she’s vital to the US team’s success… she scored 2nd in vault and could help there, but was 4th on floor and only 0.05 ahead of Skinner and 0.15 ahead of McCallum, and didn’t make top five on bars or beam (9th place on each). Yes she was 5th AA, but 6th and 7th and 9th had uncharacteristic falls. Jade Carey is not essential to the worlds team. She might still by some miracle make it, but I don’t see how or why.

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    1. you are not the only one with this opinion. I am somewhat also on the same track. The only thing is that jade did score better than skinner in their pet events marginally. Given how usag has to be transparent nowaday, they would need some sort of a reason to not have jade on the team. As we all know the careys already used the ted stevenson act on them so usag can’t just do whatever….

      Yeah, i feel sad for skinner too. It sucks because she is actually doing even better in her comeback than last quad. I’ve already said that the only person with better comeback trajectory so far is simone. I just hope some sort of a miracle can happen and i do really hope that something good will come up for her.

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      1. I think we’ve been over the reasons why the US would or would not take Jade Carey, but since I guess you (original poster) haven’t been reading, here is the summary:

        Would Not Take:
        – Test out someone else who is in contention for the Tokyo team
        – Doesn’t make top AA (and USAG may only want top AAers)

        Would Take:
        – Part of the highest possible TF score (which in the past has been how USAG chose teams)
        – Olympics isn’t (shouldn’t be) taken into consideration if Carey has earned the Worlds spot via AA or TF contributions (USAG hasn’t said she’s ineligible for consideration due to the individual route and they’ve invited her to selection camp, so she is obviously under consideration)
        – Could get VT/FX silver medals (that USAG may/may not care about)

        I’m not sure why it’s inconceivable that a bunch of people think one more many of the latter reasons will get Carey on the team. It wouldn’t even remotely take a “miracle” for her to make it – it would just require USAG to pick one of those reasons.

        Personally I wouldn’t put her on the team either but it’s silly to act like she has no chance when all the signs point to Yes.

        Like

    2. I’m not a fan of using Worlds to “test” gymnasts who might be on the Olympic team next year. Athletes earn their spots based on their results now, not potential. If you think someone else will better elevate the team score and has a stronger chance of winning medals than Jade, by all means send her; if not, then don’t. Maybe, for example, Skinner should go instead – she’s not far behind Jade in scores on FX and VT rn, and she’s a stronger AAer, so perhaps it would make sense to bring her instead.

      Also – Jade WILL be on the team next year, she just won’t be on the TF squad. Why does everyone keep saying that the two non-TF athletes aren’t on the team?? Of course they are! They will be competing for medals for the USA, just like everyone else.

      Like

      1. After today I have a lot of faith in Tom Forrester. I think he’s smart and creative. As such I think Jade will be in Tokyo TF. I think they will work out an agreement where she gives up her apparatus spot in time for US to qualify Pan Ams in exchange for being guaranteed one of the US spots.

        Like

  30. I think it is a PoTAtoe-PoTAEtoe situation. I think that at this point, Simone,Kara and Sunisa are lock (between them they give us the strongest scores and medal chances:
    – Simone: Gold AA, Floor and Vault and potential top 3 on beam and bars.
    – Kara: Top 3 AA, Outside chance of top 3 on floor and Gold on Beam
    – Sunisa: Top 3 AA, Outside chance of top 3 on floor, potential top 3 on beam and strong potential top 3 on bars.

    With this core, we are going to need either Jade or MyKayla for vault (not as much for floor). So if we go with Jade being the strongest vaulter still. We have a core group of Simone, Sunisa, Kara and Carey. The Core group covers BB and easily and can cover also at least 2 scores on vault, uneven bars and floor. No gymnasts currently has the potential to bring that much more on floor or BB. So the choice seems to be, do we think that MyKayla will give us more on vault compared to a DTY from Sunisa or Morgan or that Morgan’s most likely bar score will give us more than Kara.

    If we say that realistically, Mykayla can score a 15.01 on vault and that Morgan (or Sunisa) can score a realistic 14.4 and that Kara’s realistic score on bars is 13.7 and Morgan is optimistically a 14.4 it is a trade off. However, I would say that the chances of Mykayla missing vault are lower than Morgan’s missing bars. From a medal perspective, they are both likely to be two’ed per country. However, if for some reason they were able to get in to the finals, MyKayla IMHO would be more likely to medal. So I would go with her as the final piece of the puzzle.

    I understand the argument of not putting Jade but I do question the fairness. Yes, she looks like she will get in for floor and vault. However, remember anything can happen, she could get injured and would we refuse someone the opportunity of competing at Worlds? But I could understand the argument to have MyKayla go instead of Jade and have Morgan the 5th member.

    That said I love how we are overanalyzing this to death when pretty much any combination including Simone and Sunisa would pretty much get gold if they hit anyway.

    Like

  31. An additional point in favor of Skinner over prioritizing a 3rd bars routine is that internationally, Amanars and Chengs are scored more leniently than DTYs and other similar vaults. DTYs basically max out at 9.2 while Chengs and Amanars often go 9.4 or higher for similar execution.

    When compared to international scoring, I think we saw underscored Chengs and overscored DTYs yesterday which ended up understating the value a Cheng or Amanar brings to a team final.

    You also have to take into account whether you trust Eaker to go 14 on floor or have one of her 13 or worse routines. Both Skinner (excluding her debut meet) and Carey hover consistently around 14 with Carey usually having a few tenth advantage over Skinner.

    Sunisa’s floor does make Skinner’s 2-event case weaker because she is pulling in consistent 14s on floor every time. However, looking at the international scoring landscape, even though it seems risky and unbalanced, a third strong vault score appears mathematically to be the best option. Chiles had a chance to show that she could offer what Skinner has but with better bars and beam. Unfortunately, wiping out on her Amanar destroyed her chances. McCallum also didn’t didn’t have her upgraded vault ready.

    Even with all that said, I don’t think Skinner will make this team even with her undeniable vault score because she doesn’t offer a team final floor score (and likely wouldn’t even go in qualifications if Lee, Eaker, and Carey all go to worlds). I think Skinner simply needs a few more months of cleaning up. The fact that she made trials is outstanding and it’s even more amazing that’s she’s in serious contention for making the team. If she can continue to clean up her form across the board and get settled with her dance skills on floor, I think she stands a great chance at making the 4-person Tokyo team.

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    1. Late to the party, but I think the one thing to remember is that Skinner could legitimately lose 2 points for her vault technique, and the one-handedness is getting worse instead of better (as is typical when she starts throwing upgrades). Her improvements have been impressive, but beyond landings she hasn’t improved her technique.

      Like

      1. I could see them asking her to put up the Amanar instead of the Cheng in TF, I suspect she’d be fine with that, and there’s no one-arm issue there.

        Like

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