Full week 8 rankings

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Oklahoma didn’t change its qualifying score much this week after a meh-for-Oklahoma 197.650 at the Nadia meet, but the big issue at play is the absence of Maggie Nichols because of an ankle injury, with KJ not expecting her back “for a while.” While Oklahoma is certainly still able to score well without Nichols, her absence depresses the team’s scoring potential to a more pedestrian (and potentially beatable) level.

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With its 198, Florida closed the gap a little on Oklahoma this week and, most importantly, has a chance to pass Oklahoma for #1 this weekend if things go just right. It’s not the most likely outcome—Florida would have to go 198.050 to have a shot a tying, while Oklahoma would have to score under 197.975—but Florida is also going to Georgia on Friday, which I expect to be a “Utah/UCLA is a role model” type situation. So it’s in play.

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It’s difficult to pretend to take a rankings post seriously after the abomination that was the scoring in the final rotation last night (if the judges don’t take these scores seriously, then why should I come in here and be like, “Well, if they can score 198 again…” like any of this is real or matters), but UCLA moves ahead of Utah despite the loss on the strength of a better supply of 197s throughout the season so far. UCLA will be looking for a score greater than 197.200 this week to ensure staying at #3 next Monday.

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Utah is in a much, much better position for qualifying score after the meet that shall not be named. (I’ll let you in on a secret—the meet wasn’t that good. That was medium quality for top-5 teams and Utah was weaker on several events than the meet before, including beam despite the program record. The only reason it’s being treated as this amazing meet is that the judges tried to make a show instead of doing their jobs.) Despite being in a strong position, Utah will still need to replace some of these low 197s if this ranking is to be maintained. It’s possible for Utah to get up to #3 next week, but that is dependent on UCLA’s performance.

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For portions of the meet this weekend, LSU got to experience how the other half lives in terms of judging, so the team won’t exactly be crying a river over a lower-than-intended score because it wasn’t really a problem meet. Not an ideal performance, but not a red flag. LSU is still on an improving trajectory, though is also running out of time to get rid of those lower scores, a task that will be necessary to get that top-4 ranking.

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Basically all your worst fears for how Denver would do without Lynnzee Brown were realized this week with a counting 8 on bars and counting 9.5s on vault and beam for a 195.175 total. That score really shouldn’t be the shape of things to come—a mid or high 196 would have been doable in that meet with a hit and remains very doable next week. Still, getting totals that improve the qualifying score in a significant way is going to be a challenging task, which makes Denver vulnerable to getting passed by the next couple teams in the coming weeks.

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Michigan recorded a program record score of 197.950, and I don’t even get to rage about the attempts to singlehandedly undo decades of Big Ten underscoring that happened in that meet because it was far from the worst display of the weekend. Also, can you believe Michigan has never scored a 198? Ever? Elise, what were you even doing? Michigan has a higher potential score than #6 Denver for next week and will be eyeing 197.600 at home (that’s doable now, right?) to guarantee moving ahead.

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Cal achieved its fifth 197 of the season to get up into the hallowed top-8 this week. Next weekend, Cal stays at home and therefore can’t change its qualifying score too significantly or move up at all because the home scores are already good—basically just waiting until the next weekend’s visit to UCLA to show up and go, “ONE UTAH TREATMENT PLEASE” for a chance to drop that single straggling road score.

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There will be some pressure on Alabama’s final two meets of the season (the two remaining road meets) to erase those 196s, which is necessary if a top 8 ranking is to be achieved. But, Alabama does have another 196.6 to get rid of this weekend at home if it can prove that mid-197s are a real, every-week thing. A 197.300 would be enough to guarantee moving ahead of Cal.

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That moment where Rachael Lukacs did an FTY and we think maybe the judges still credited it as a DTY feels like such a thing of the past already. We’ve grown so much since then, lived so many lives, seen so many things. Georgia once again improved its road scores by breaking 197, a good marker but not one that will get the team a much higher ranking than #10 in and of itself. Like Cal, Georgia is at home this week without much room to improve the scores, so the hope will mostly be to hang onto 10th.

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It was an odd one for Minnesota as the team wasn’t really able to take advantage of what was a loosely scored affair overall, ending up with a fine-not-great 196.650 and a loss of ranking spots as a result. With a higher peak than both Georgia and Cal after next week, however, Minnesota will like its chances to move back up a little with a big result.

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Kentucky is met with the old conundrum that because the team’s scores have been consistent this season, bunched all around the higher-mid 196 zone, there’s not much room to improve NQS in a given week. Even though a big score this weekend wouldn’t do a lot, Kentucky still needs to start lifting those peak scores to try to move out of this current ranking position. It’s not a bad one, the scores have been good this year, but it’s hard to see Kentucky moving up any higher than this with just the one 197 on the slate.

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Washington achieved its best road score so far this season with a 196.875 at Arizona State, which was enough to create a fully acceptable slate of 196 scores, even if it runs into the same problem as Kentucky in that it’s going to be very difficult to get any higher than 12th without an overhaul of the mid 196s in here. Still, a top-16 finish, a seeded place, is a victorious result for Washington, and that looks fairly comfortable to accomplish at this point.

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A bars-tastrophe this week left Arkansas without a usable score from its home competition against Auburn, but because Arkansas already has a solid group of home scores, it’s not a particularly drastic development. It’s those two low-196 road scores that are keeping Arkansas vulnerable in the race for a top-16 spot, one of which can go away with this coming weekend’s visit to LSU.

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Auburn is doing a successful job of wriggling free from these non-ideal meets and maintaining a fairly useful ranking. But now we’re heading to the difficult part because while Auburn has a full qualifying score picture of 196s, the 196s aren’t that high, which leaves Auburn with a pedestrian maximum after next week, even if the senior night scores are massive.

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Nebraska achieved its first assignment in the quest to stay in the top 16, recording a 196.750 in a must-hit road meet. That works. The problem for the Huskers is that they’ll have this weekend off, and there are four teams mathematically capable of passing while Nebraska is idle. That would be a tough position to work out of in the final meets of the year.

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Iowa State, then, will know that it can move ahead of Nebraska in next Monday’s rankings by scoring better than 196.300 in the team’s return home to face MSU. Based on what we’ve seen so far, that should be treated as an attainable result, though it wouldn’t necessarily guarantee a spot in the top 16 for week 9 since Oregon State has a higher peak.

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Oregon State moved up spots this week thanks to its 196.600 against Cal and, most importantly, will be making the other teams around the top 16 cutoff very nervous because that 195.325 will be so easily dropped. Oregon State can even assure moving up as high 15th place by scoring 196.525 this weekend, which at this point in the season, at home, should be a pretty basic expectation for a team like this.

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The switch to qualifying score was not particularly kind to BYU since the team has a 195 and a few lower 196s hanging around, which are not going to be top-16 scores when we get down to business. The victory over Denver will feel good, but that was mostly a Denver thing, and an under-performance on bars left the team with a 196.200, not bad but not enough to challenge the other programs in the teens.

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While 20th is not a great place to be, Missouri will be fairly optimistic about its chances to move up in the next couple weeks because those 195.6s are just sooo ready to be dropped. The remainder of the scores are quite competitive, even with a team like Auburn currently in 15th place. There’s not that much between those two, so Missouri is among the teams that will still think a regionals seeding is an attainable prospect.

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A miss on beam became a missed opportunity for SUU in its Friday competition for an unusable 195.775 home score. Southern Utah competes again tonight, but since the meet is also at home and since the gap between 20 and 21 has grown so large, there’s no opportunity for the team to improve its ranking with today’s performance.

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Illinois took advantage of the Big Five environment by achieving its first 196 of the season and doing it in quite some style. These 195s had seemed to indicate that Illinois would be slowly dripping its way out of the top 25 after a strong start to the year, but if the 196s continue, Illinois may be able to preserve its spot.

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Penn State counted a miss on beam at the Big Five but still came away with a season-high road score in the 196s, which will have been about the goal score entering the competition anyway. Because PSU competes at home the next two weeks, the ranking situation and top-25 place will become somewhat vulnerable. Those lowest road scores will have to wait until March 13th to be dropped in the hope of making a late run.

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Despite going 196 at home over the weekend, Arizona dropped some ground because the home scores were already solid and there wasn’t much room to grow there. The road scores are what need to be addressed in order for Arizona to avoid the dreaded 29-36 zone, which can start this weekend at Cal. Those road scores need to be bumping up against the high 195s and 196s for Arizona to stick around here.

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Michigan State had a 191 on its qualifying score picture up until this week, so once that could be dropped, it was smooth sailing up the rankings. What remains to be seen is whether these 196s can be away-from-home developments. If they are, MSU has room to continue improving its ranking, with that higher maximum after the next meet than the teams ranked immediately ahead.

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