Week 5 Top 25
Note: These rankings include the meets from Monday because, you know, they’re already happened. They will therefore differ from the official week 5 rankings, which do not include Monday meets.
|33.||San Jose State||195.238|
What Is a Good Score?
Michigan’s basically unprecedented 198.525 over the weekend—the highest team score since 2004 and the highest road score ever recorded in college gymnastics—has reignited my question of what actually constitutes a competitive score in the 2022 season. When Utah is scoring 197.7 with a counting fall and Oklahoma is scoring 198 even with vault rotation that tied for their worst score on that event in nine years, it’s clear the typical expectations need not apply.
But what are we actually dealing with here? How good is a 197 this year? Is that helpful? What are teams trying for?
This season, for the first time ever, it’s expected to take an NQS over 196 just to finish in the top 36 and qualify to regionals. Scores are on pace to obliterate last season’s cutoff of 195.769, and the NC State team currently sitting on the bubble has an average of 195.131, a score that would have seen them rank 8 spots higher at this point in each of the last three seasons. Based on how things have changed in the last 10 years between now and the end of the season for teams in this area of the rankings, that would put this season’s projected regionals cutoff somewhere in the vicinity of 196.300.
Similarly, the current scores would indicate an NQS of roughly 197.150 required to finish in the top 16 (seeded at regionals), and an NQS of 197.900 to finish in the top 8 (seeded to advance to nationals). Right now, I’m leaning toward the lower end of the range with these because we have one fewer week in the regular season this year compared to most years and because of COVID meet cancellations mucking up the plans (and because 197.900????????), but we shall see.
With those benchmarks in mind, I’m giving teams an X for every score they currently have that reaches each level. As long as NQS is done the normal way this season, you’re going to want to end up six weeks from now with at least four countable scores at the desired level to feel safe and dandy. Next week, many teams should have enough scores to start doing real NQS projections.
|Top 8 Score|
|Top 16 Score|
|Top 36 Score|
|San Jose State||X|
3 thoughts on “Week 5 Rankings and Reactions”
The sad thing about your commentary is that 10s are being handed out like candy. A 10 used to be for a literally perfect performance. Now it’s just for performances that are better than the 9.9s and 9.95s that are also flying off the shelves. I watched several meets last week and even though the routines were great there is such a massive wave of over scoring. I watched Florida, UCLA/UT, LSU, Michigan and a few others. Start with Michigan: Amazing team, routines and young ladies: not all 4 of those routines were 10s; Utah-UCLA Loved Wrights floor routine but she didn’t have even one good landing and still got 9.825. again, amazing routine – one of the most entertaining and love her facial expressions. O’Keefe was also over scored on the floor at that meet. Jade Carey has amazing tumbling but the routine itself is boring. There is not dance or performance quality. Before the haters step in – I love Jade but that routine isn’t worth a 10. The NQS isn’t the problem but the result is really tough. The corrections need to start with the judges. a 10 is PERFECTION – lower ranked teams do not get the same bump thus the NQS disparity. The judges need to be held accountable for scoring excesses or the problem will never be fixed. Coming from the other side – More elites and national team members are entering the college ranks due to the name branding/sponsoring this year so the scores are bound to increase but let’s get real about it. Rambled enough – Spencer thanks for keeping us on our toes. Love your blog.
You make great points. Last weekend there were twelve 10s GIVEN. There were 3 which were properly scored a 10 imo. Bryant – vault, Wojcik – vault, and Wilson – floor
1. Minnesota does not have a 197.9.
2. Only Mich, OU, UF, and LSU have a 197.9. Alabama has a 197.875. No other team even has a 197.8
3. It will NOT take a 197.9 to be top 8. Did you mean top 4? Every team ranked outside the top 4 would have to start scoring 197.9s ever meet starting immediately for that to be the NQS needed for top 8.
Otherwise, you are clearly correct that the scores have gone WAY UP and are getting close to unmanageable – and the average scores or NQS needed to achieve certain rankings have increased significantly. But the 197.9 projection to make top 8 is not correct.
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