Women’s qualification
| Team Qualification | 2018 World Championships (3) | United States  Russia  China  |
| Team Qualification | 2019 World Championships (9) | The top 9 teams in qualifying, not including the three above |
| Individual Qualification | 2019 World Championships (20) | The top 20 all-around in qualifying (1 per country), not including athletes on the 12 qualified teams. |
| Individual Qualification | 2019 World Championships (12) | The top 3 from event finals on each piece, not including those on qualified teams or qualified through the AA |
| Individual Qualification | 2018-2020 Apparatus World Cup Series (4) | The winners of the series on each event at its conclusion (Mar 28, 2020). In-progress qualifiers: Jade Carey Lyu Jiaqi Marine Boyer  Vanessa Ferrari  ** |
| Individual Qualification | 2020 All-Around World Cup Series (3) | The top 3 countries at the end of the series (Apr 7, 2020) receive a spot they can award to anyone they wish |
| Individual Qualification | 2020 Continental Championships (9) | The top 2 in the AA final at continental championships (1 for Oceania) earn spots for themselves, or for their country if the country already has a team |
| Individual Qualification | Host country (1) | Japan’s host-nation spot. It will be given to an alternate from the worlds AA standings once Japan officially doesn’t need it. |
| Individual Qualification | Tripartite commission (1) | 1 spot is reserved for an athlete from an under- represented country, TBD. |
**Jade Carey leads the apparatus qualification standings on both vault and floor, but she takes the vault spot on the tiebreaker (better cumulative results), so the floor spot would go to the #2-ranked athlete.
Team Qualification – How They Match Up
An update of last month’s comparison, ranking the likely contending nations for the remaining 9 team qualification spots based on how each country’s best-scoring group of five senior gymnasts would do in a three-scores-count format using each gymnast’s top score on each apparatus recorded at a major international meet this year. Short version: don’t be remotely surprised if the same 12 teams that made Rio make it to Tokyo as well.
| 1. FRANCE – 167.032 | ||||
| Melanie DJDS | 14.433 | 14.033 | 13.733 | 13.833 |
| Lorette Charpy | 13.600 | 14.100 | 13.700 | 13.100 |
| Marine Boyer | 0.000 | 11.966 | 14.100 | 13.300 |
| Coline Devillard | 15.000 | 0.000 | 12.300 | 12.833 |
| Aline Friess | 14.800 | 12.900 | 12.200 | 12.966 |
|
167.032 |
44.233 | 41.033 | 41.533 | 40.233 |
| The handspring rudi that Aline Friess debuted at European Games for 14.800 on both days is a potential game changer, but I still have to think France would prefer a bars routine from Bossu to two big vaults from Devillard and Friess. | ||||
| 2. CANADA – 166.013 | ||||
| Ellie Black | 14.500 | 14.266 | 13.800 | 13.266 |
| Ana Padurariu | 13.533 | 14.666 | 14.333 | 13.600 |
| Denelle Pedrick | 14.250 | 11.700 | 12.000 | 12.300 |
| Victoria Woo | 13.666 | 13.433 | 12.600 | 12.833 |
| Laurie Denommee | 13.566 | 12.866 | 13.133 | 13.100 |
| 166.013 | 42.416 | 42.365 | 41.266 | 39.966 |
| I know Denelle Pedrick is not typically in the elite mix and competed as a L10 at nationals this year, but if Canada ultimately feels like Black, Padurariu, Moors, and Olsen have things covered as best as anyone can manage on the other pieces, it could be worth putting Pedrick in there just for her DTY. | ||||
| 3. ITALY – 165.731 | ||||
| Alice D’Amato | 14.633 | 14.400 | 12.466 | 12.700 |
| Asia D’Amato | 14.633 | 14.033 | 11.967 | 12.900 |
| Elisa Iorio | 13.633 | 14.300 | 13.350 | 12.633 |
| Giorgia Villa | 14.300 | 13.533 | 13.766 | 12.666 |
| Lara Mori | 13.250 | 12.700 | 12.850 | 13.866 |
| 165.731 | 43.566 | 42.733 | 39.966 | 39.466 |
| This year, expect an Italian team packed with those new seniors to deliver the kind of scores on bars Italy hasn’t enjoyed in quite some time. I’m still a little worried about this group’s scores and consistency on beam and floor (be honest, you wouldn’t be that surprised to see one of the old standbys like Ferrari or Ferlito to swoop to do those two events at worlds, would you?), but Italy is on track for its best team result in a while, and at just the right time. | ||||
| 4. GREAT BRITAIN – 165.297 | ||||
| Alice Kinsella | 14.200 | 13.800 | 13.566 | 13.100 |
| Ellie Downie | 14.500 | 14.066 | 13.333 | 13.466 |
| Amelie Morgan | 14.100 | 13.900 | 13.033 | 12.666 |
| Claudia Fragapane | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 13.600 |
| Becky Downie | 0.000 | 14.433 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 165.297 | 42.800 | 42.399 | 39.932 | 40.166 |
| The return of the bars score from Becky Downie at European Games solidified things a little for GB (and Fenton and Morgan’s scores are essentially interchangeable right now, but Morgan delivers about .03 more), but we haven’t seen Frags do a lot of vaulting lately. GB is going to want her vaulting if she’s to be on the same worlds team as Becky Downie. | ||||
| 5. NETHERLANDS – 163.847 | ||||
| Sanna Veerman | 14.100 | 14.133 | 12.166 | 11.833 |
| Eythora Thorsdottir | 13.600 | 13.866 | 13.550 | 13.666 |
| Tisha Volleman | 14.000 | 13.000 | 12.366 | 13.333 |
| Naomi Visser | 13.800 | 14.100 | 13.433 | 13.200 |
| Sara van Disseldorp | 13.366 | 12.200 | 12.666 | 12.733 |
| 163.847 | 41.900 | 42.099 | 39.649 | 40.199 |
| Netherlands has put up some reassuring performances recently, and if van Gerner gets back and Lieke continues this trajectory in her return as well, this can be a very formidable group. | ||||
| 6. BELGIUM – 163.299 | ||||
| Maellyse Brassart | 13.600 | 13.300 | 13.166 | 13.100 |
| Jade Vansteenkiste | 13.733 | 12.866 | 11.333 | 13.233 |
| Fien Enghels | 0.000 | 14.200 | 13.033 | 12.866 |
| Nina Derwael | 13.566 | 15.233 | 13.633 | 13.066 |
| Senna Deriks | 13.533 | 13.533 | 12.733 | 12.533 |
| 163.229 | 40.899 | 42.966 | 39.965 | 39.399 |
| We have seen a change this year for Belgium, an introduction of depth. For the last quad+, Belgium has fielded a competitive team, but an exact specific five had to be healthy (and as Mys and Waem left, Kinkcaert and Brassart took their places in that five). If people like Hermans and Klinckaert were out (as we’ve seen recently), Belgium just wouldn’t have a team score. Now, new seniors like Enghels and Vansteenkiste have come in to give Belgium a little more buffer for someone critical being out. | ||||
| 7. JAPAN – 162.774 | ||||
| Asuka Teramoto* | 14.600 | 13.800 | 13.333 | 13.600 |
| Hitomi Hatakeda* | 14.075 | 14.000 | 13.100 | 13.050 |
| Aiko Sugihara* | 14.100 | 12.866 | 13.000 | 13.250 |
| Nagi Kajita* | 13.033 | 11.766 | 11.366 | 12.833 |
| Akari Matsumura* | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 162.774 | 42.775 | 40.666 | 39.433 | 39.900 |
| The * indicates when athletes have officially been named to the 2019 worlds team. Japan showed us at the University Games (for the most part) that the team can still put up successful scores without Mai, especially if Hitomi Hatakeda continues hitting like that. The fifth member of the team has been named as Akari Matsumura by virtue of her having a DTY, but she does not have any international-meet scores to include here. | ||||
| 8. GERMANY – 162.514 | ||||
| Kim Bui | 13.800 | 14.400 | 12.766 | 13.233 |
| Elisabeth Seitz | 14.500 | 14.233 | 12.466 | 13.200 |
| Pauline Schäfer | 13.450 | 13.266 | 13.666 | 0.000 |
| Isabelle Stingl | 13.600 | 11.333 | 12.566 | 13.050 |
| Leah Grießer | 13.133 | 13.150 | 12.800 | 12.800 |
| 162.514 | 41.900 | 41.899 | 39.232 | 39.483 |
| Germany really should be one of the 9 qualifying teams at worlds this year and is too talented not to make the Olympics as a full squad—Seitz, Schäfer, Bui, Scheder, Voss is still such a formidable-seeming group—but what we’re seeing right now is a German team that’s exceptionally reliant on a select group of veterans all being healthy at the same time. You worry whether that next generation of backup routines/future stars is coming along or not. | ||||
| 9. UKRAINE – 161.630 | ||||
| Valeria Osipova | 13.933 | 12.400 | 12.266 | 12.400 |
| Anastasia Bachynska | 14.000 | 13.566 | 13.533 | 13.200 |
| Diana Varinska | 13.800 | 13.966 | 13.100 | 13.266 |
| Angelina Radivilova | 13.900 | 12.367 | 13.333 | 13.033 |
| Yana Fedorova | 13.700 | 12.800 | 12.000 | 11.800 |
| 161.630 | 41.833 | 40.332 | 39.966 | 39.499 |
| It was an up-and-down European Games for Ukraine, but one that featured enough good moments like the floor performances from Varinska and Bachynska to remind us that Ukraine must be considered a contender for an Olympic team spot. | ||||
| 10. AUSTRALIA – 160.633 | ||||
| Georgia-Rose Brown | 13.700 | 13.633 | 12.266 | 12.400 |
| Emily Whitehead | 13.633 | 13.233 | 12.833 | 12.500 |
| Emma Nedov | 13.333 | 13.333 | 14.100 | 13.033 |
| Elena Chipizubov | 12.866 | 12.166 | 13.200 | 12.766 |
| Georgia Godwin | 13.733 | 13.500 | 13.266 | 12.766 |
| 160.663 | 41.066 | 40.466 | 40.566 | 38.565 |
| 11. HUNGARY – 159.715 | ||||
| Sara Peter | 14.533 | 0.000 | 9.450 | 12.533 |
| Nora Feher | 12.966 | 13.550 | 12.800 | 12.466 |
| Dorina Böczögo | 13.750 | 12.650 | 0.000 | 13.000 |
| Bianka Schermann | 13.550 | 13.900 | 11.800 | 11.733 |
| Zsofia Kovacs | 13.933 | 14.000 | 13.450 | 11.333 |
| 159.715 | 42.216 | 41.450 | 38.050 | 37.999 |
| 12. BRAZIL – 159.445 | ||||
| Flavia Saraiva | 14.600 | 13.266 | 13.033 | 13.666 |
| Thais Fidelis | 13.566 | 12.300 | 12.933 | 13.266 |
| Carolyne Pedro | 13.733 | 12.566 | 12.233 | 12.933 |
| Jade Barbosa | 0.000 | 13.650 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| X | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| 159.445 | 41.899 | 39.482 | 38.166 | 39.865 |
| Things are not quite as dire as all this, even without Andrade. Brazil went all-in on a very specific group of gymnasts in international meets early in the year, so there’s not a lot of backup scores to use right now. If you were to give the team the scores from Lorrane Oliveira and Jade Barbosa from nationals (high but still), they’re in the mid 162s, which is probably more reflective of where this team is without Andrade. In the 9, but not safely so. | ||||
| 13. ROMANIA – 158.730 | ||||
| Iulia Berar | 13.266 | 12.533 | 12.950 | 0.000 |
| Carmen Ghiciuc | 13.466 | 11.933 | 13.100 | 10.933 |
| Denisa Golgota | 14.500 | 12.966 | 13.500 | 13.866 |
| Ana Maria Puiu | 13.600 | 12.100 | 13.233 | 12.900 |
| Maria Holbura | 13.233 | 11.300 | 12.533 | 12.966 |
| 158.730 | 41.566 | 37.599 | 39.833 | 39.732 |
| Romania will not arrive at worlds with the expectation of Olympic qualification, but the way things have been going, the fact that it’s not completely out of the question feels like a win. | ||||
| 14. SPAIN – 158.446 | ||||
| Alba Petsico | 13.600 | 12.566 | 12.033 | 12.766 |
| Laura Bechdeju | 13.400 | 13.100 | 12.033 | 13.250 |
| Ana Perez | 13.666 | 13.733 | 12.733 | 13.500 |
| Nora Fernandez | 13.766 | 13.266 | 11.500 | 11.600 |
| Cintia Rodriguez | 13.333 | 12.333 | 13.033 | 12.733 |
| 161.682 | 41.032 | 40.099 | 37.799 | 39.516 |
| There’s some hearty talent in this generation of Spanish gymnasts, and a few newbies who are showing competitive scores on select pieces. There’s probably not enough depth to get up into the fancy places, but the scores haven’t been too, too far away so far this year. |
Individual Qualification – Worlds
For gymnasts in the “but how does little old me make it to the Olympics when I don’t have a big GRRR team qualifying me there???” territory, the best route (and often only route) is going to be through all-around performance in qualification at 2019 worlds.
Olympic qualification for the women is very AA heavy, and the good news for AAers is that there will be A TON of Olympic spots awarded this way. There’s a baseline of 20 spots and will end up being many more than that (see below).
Here’s a little experiment. I took the results of 2018 worlds, and imposed the assumption that the 12 teams that qualified to the Olympics in 2016 do so again this time. If that happens, here are the 20 athletes who would have advanced to the Olympics with nominative spots by virtue of their worlds AA performance if this were done in 2018:
Denisa Golgota (ROU)
Zsofia Kovacs (HUN)
Ana Perez (ESP)
Yeo Seojeong (KOR)
Frida Esparza (MEX)
Erin Modaro (AUS)
Martina Dominici (ARG)
Diana Varinska (UKR)
Filipa Martins (POR)
Aneta Holasova (CZE)
Kim Su Jong (PRK)
Gabriela Janik (POL)
Jessica Castles (SWE)
Simona Castro (CHI)
Rifda Irfanaluthfi (INA)
Ilaria Käslin (SUI)
Caitlin Rooskrantz (RSA)
Tutya Yilmaz (TUR)
Mandy Mohamed (EGY)
Ting Hua-Tien (TPE)
With one spot available per country, and all the gymnasts on the top-12 teams removed, that takes us all the way down to 66th place (and an all-around score of 48.865) to come up with 20 gymnasts.
Ultimately, we’re going to see many more than 20 gymnasts make it from the 2019 worlds AA standings because when other spots go unused, they are reallocated to the next in line in the worlds AA standings.
That becomes significant especially in terms of the 12 individual apparatus spots that are also available at 2019 worlds. Those 12 spots (3 per apparatus) can be earned only by athletes who advance to the event finals. This part of qualification was obviously written with MAG in mind because you don’t really have a lot of gymnasts outside the top 12 teams who even make event finals on the women’s side. There will probably be a few on vault, but it would be unsurprising if most of those 12 spots go unused and are reallocated to the AA standings.
Let’s continue that 2018 experiment: Alexa Moreno, Oksana Chusovitina, and Pyon Rye Yong would get spots for vault, and Jonna Adlerteg would get a spot for bars, but the remaining 8 positions would go unused and revert back to the AA field, adding these gymnasts to the Olympic qualifying list:
Hanna Traukova (BLR)
Marina Nekrasova (AZE)
Danusia Francis (JAM)
Julie Erichsen (NOR)
Elina Vihrova (LAT)
Jasmin Mader (AUT)
Dayana Ardila (COL)
Tienna Nguyen (VIE)
So that brings us down to 79th place in the all-around standings and an all-around score of 47.399. (And if you add in Japan’s unused host country spot, that would mean that Maija Leinonen (FIN) in 80th would qualify as well.)
Continue reading The Race to Tokyo – July 2019 Update