IOC member Dick Pound (see, it’s funny because dick means penis) spilled the beans as he usually does, this time revealing that the IOC has decided to postpone the Tokyo Olympics. Neither the IOC nor Tokyo have actually said anything official about that, but this has seemed inevitable and obvious for multiple days now, so we’re all jumping on this opportunity finally to treat it like it’s real instead of dancing around the idea.
Just yesterday, the IOC announced a four-week window in which to make a decision, but that now seems to have been more about determining the logistics of a postponement (which are many, and complicated) rather than actually deciding whether to postpone.
Even before this latest news, the Canadian and Australian committees announced that they wouldn’t send athletes to a 2020 Olympics, even if it were held, and you can be sure none of us would accept the concept of an Olympics without Ellie Black. That was the nail in the coffin.
Here’s a rundown on who qualified to each final in Melbourne and a quick note on how things are shaping up on each event. Finals begin at 6:00pm Saturday local time, which is 2:00am ET/11:00pm PT in US time, and are indeed streaming at the Olympic Channel.
Men’s Floor
Kirill Prokopev – 15.000
Ryu Sunghyun – 14.500
Milad Karimi – 14.433
Rayderley Zapata – 14.066
Ethan Dick – 13.966
Jorge Vega Lopez – 13.933
Yahor Sharamkou – 13.900
Bram Verhofstad – 13.633
Rayderley Zapata achieved his first goal, which was making the final. Qualifying in 4th may be a bit of a concern for him, though he is currently in a position of control and can therefore afford not to win this event and still be the frontrunner to get the Olympic spot. For now. The door remains open for someone like Prokopev, and if Prokopev were to win the title here, he’s in this race. Still, he has left it quite late and would need to be very good at everything remaining.
(Prokopev’s quest to challenge Zapata would also be helped if the FIG does not end up redistributing points from those who qualified to the Olympics as individuals. The original rules discuss redistributing points from those who qualified as part of teams, but makes no mention of individuals. Which is insane, but also…FIG. Part of Zapata’s frontrunner status is based on his gaining points redistributed from Yulo, Dolgopyat, and Shatilov.)
Tomas Gonzalez did not advance to the final, and I don’t want to talk about it.
Women’s Vault
Jade Carey – 15.049
Shoko Miyata – 14.166
Coline Devillard – 14.050
Ahtziri Sandoval – 13.916
Maria Paseka – 13.883
Angelina Radivilova – 13.883
Teja Belak – 13.849
Tkasa Kysselef – 13.733
Carey did what she had to do in qualification, scoring nearly a point better than anyone else and moving ever closer to the almost-basically-assured-but-not-quite-mathematically-guaranteed Olympic spot status she can reach with a victory here. Maria Paseka did not go for anything near full difficulty in qualification, but I’m sure we can count on her to chuck some insanity in the final. It also looks like Devillard fell on her DTY, but she would be the other closest challenger to Carey if she hits in the final.
The Melbourne apparatus world cup, the 6th of 8 events in the series used to determine which 10 individuals (4 women, 6 men, one for each event) gain Olympic berths.
When is it?
Qualification Day 1 Thursday, February 20, 6:00pm local/2:00am ET/11:00pm PT
Qualification Day 2 Friday, February 21, 6:00pm local/2:00am ET/11:00pm PT
Finals Day 1 Saturday, February 22, 6:00pm local/2:00am ET/11:00pm PT
Finals Day 2 Sunday, February 23, 3:00pm local/11:00pm ET/8:00pm PT
How do I watch?
We think the finals will be live streamed on the Olympic Channel, but they haven’t posted the specific information yet. They streamed it last year and have broadcast rights because they’re showing it tape delayed on TV later.
The top 3 countries at the end of the series (Apr 7, 2020) receive a spot they can award to anyone they wish
Individual Qualification
2020 Continental Championships (9)
The top 2 in the AA final at continental championships (1 for Oceania) earn spots for themselves, or for their country if the country already has a team
Individual Qualification
Host country (1)
Japan’s host-nation spot. It will be given to an alternate from the worlds AA standings once Japan officially doesn’t need it.
Individual Qualification
Tripartite commission (1)
1 spot is reserved for an athlete from an under- represented country, TBD.
**Jade Carey leads the apparatus qualification standings on both vault and floor, but she takes the vault spot on the tiebreaker (better cumulative results), so the floor spot would go to the #2-ranked athlete.
Team Qualification – How They Match Up
An update of last month’s comparison, ranking the likely contending nations for the remaining 9 team qualification spots based on how each country’s best-scoring group of five senior gymnasts would do in a three-scores-count format using each gymnast’s top score on each apparatus recorded at a major international meet this year. Short version: don’t be remotely surprised if the same 12 teams that made Rio make it to Tokyo as well.
1. FRANCE – 167.032
Melanie DJDS
14.433
14.033
13.733
13.833
Lorette Charpy
13.600
14.100
13.700
13.100
Marine Boyer
0.000
11.966
14.100
13.300
Coline Devillard
15.000
0.000
12.300
12.833
Aline Friess
14.800
12.900
12.200
12.966
167.032
44.233
41.033
41.533
40.233
The handspring rudi that Aline Friess debuted at European Games for 14.800 on both days is a potential game changer, but I still have to think France would prefer a bars routine from Bossu to two big vaults from Devillard and Friess.
2. CANADA – 166.013
Ellie Black
14.500
14.266
13.800
13.266
Ana Padurariu
13.533
14.666
14.333
13.600
Denelle Pedrick
14.250
11.700
12.000
12.300
Victoria Woo
13.666
13.433
12.600
12.833
Laurie Denommee
13.566
12.866
13.133
13.100
166.013
42.416
42.365
41.266
39.966
I know Denelle Pedrick is not typically in the elite mix and competed as a L10 at nationals this year, but if Canada ultimately feels like Black, Padurariu, Moors, and Olsen have things covered as best as anyone can manage on the other pieces, it could be worth putting Pedrick in there just for her DTY.
3. ITALY – 165.731
Alice D’Amato
14.633
14.400
12.466
12.700
Asia D’Amato
14.633
14.033
11.967
12.900
Elisa Iorio
13.633
14.300
13.350
12.633
Giorgia Villa
14.300
13.533
13.766
12.666
Lara Mori
13.250
12.700
12.850
13.866
165.731
43.566
42.733
39.966
39.466
This year, expect an Italian team packed with those new seniors to deliver the kind of scores on bars Italy hasn’t enjoyed in quite some time. I’m still a little worried about this group’s scores and consistency on beam and floor (be honest, you wouldn’t be that surprised to see one of the old standbys like Ferrari or Ferlito to swoop to do those two events at worlds, would you?), but Italy is on track for its best team result in a while, and at just the right time.
4. GREAT BRITAIN – 165.297
Alice Kinsella
14.200
13.800
13.566
13.100
Ellie Downie
14.500
14.066
13.333
13.466
Amelie Morgan
14.100
13.900
13.033
12.666
Claudia Fragapane
0.000
0.000
0.000
13.600
Becky Downie
0.000
14.433
0.000
0.000
165.297
42.800
42.399
39.932
40.166
The return of the bars score from Becky Downie at European Games solidified things a little for GB (and Fenton and Morgan’s scores are essentially interchangeable right now, but Morgan delivers about .03 more), but we haven’t seen Frags do a lot of vaulting lately. GB is going to want her vaulting if she’s to be on the same worlds team as Becky Downie.
5. NETHERLANDS – 163.847
Sanna Veerman
14.100
14.133
12.166
11.833
Eythora Thorsdottir
13.600
13.866
13.550
13.666
Tisha Volleman
14.000
13.000
12.366
13.333
Naomi Visser
13.800
14.100
13.433
13.200
Sara van Disseldorp
13.366
12.200
12.666
12.733
163.847
41.900
42.099
39.649
40.199
Netherlands has put up some reassuring performances recently, and if van Gerner gets back and Lieke continues this trajectory in her return as well, this can be a very formidable group.
6. BELGIUM – 163.299
Maellyse Brassart
13.600
13.300
13.166
13.100
Jade Vansteenkiste
13.733
12.866
11.333
13.233
Fien Enghels
0.000
14.200
13.033
12.866
Nina Derwael
13.566
15.233
13.633
13.066
Senna Deriks
13.533
13.533
12.733
12.533
163.229
40.899
42.966
39.965
39.399
We have seen a change this year for Belgium, an introduction of depth. For the last quad+, Belgium has fielded a competitive team, but an exact specific five had to be healthy (and as Mys and Waem left, Kinkcaert and Brassart took their places in that five). If people like Hermans and Klinckaert were out (as we’ve seen recently), Belgium just wouldn’t have a team score. Now, new seniors like Enghels and Vansteenkiste have come in to give Belgium a little more buffer for someone critical being out.
7. JAPAN – 162.774
Asuka Teramoto*
14.600
13.800
13.333
13.600
Hitomi Hatakeda*
14.075
14.000
13.100
13.050
Aiko Sugihara*
14.100
12.866
13.000
13.250
Nagi Kajita*
13.033
11.766
11.366
12.833
Akari Matsumura*
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
162.774
42.775
40.666
39.433
39.900
The * indicates when athletes have officially been named to the 2019 worlds team. Japan showed us at the University Games (for the most part) that the team can still put up successful scores without Mai, especially if Hitomi Hatakeda continues hitting like that. The fifth member of the team has been named as Akari Matsumura by virtue of her having a DTY, but she does not have any international-meet scores to include here.
8. GERMANY – 162.514
Kim Bui
13.800
14.400
12.766
13.233
Elisabeth Seitz
14.500
14.233
12.466
13.200
Pauline Schäfer
13.450
13.266
13.666
0.000
Isabelle Stingl
13.600
11.333
12.566
13.050
Leah Grießer
13.133
13.150
12.800
12.800
162.514
41.900
41.899
39.232
39.483
Germany really should be one of the 9 qualifying teams at worlds this year and is too talented not to make the Olympics as a full squad—Seitz, Schäfer, Bui, Scheder, Voss is still such a formidable-seeming group—but what we’re seeing right now is a German team that’s exceptionally reliant on a select group of veterans all being healthy at the same time. You worry whether that next generation of backup routines/future stars is coming along or not.
9. UKRAINE – 161.630
Valeria Osipova
13.933
12.400
12.266
12.400
Anastasia Bachynska
14.000
13.566
13.533
13.200
Diana Varinska
13.800
13.966
13.100
13.266
Angelina Radivilova
13.900
12.367
13.333
13.033
Yana Fedorova
13.700
12.800
12.000
11.800
161.630
41.833
40.332
39.966
39.499
It was an up-and-down European Games for Ukraine, but one that featured enough good moments like the floor performances from Varinska and Bachynska to remind us that Ukraine must be considered a contender for an Olympic team spot.
10. AUSTRALIA – 160.633
Georgia-Rose Brown
13.700
13.633
12.266
12.400
Emily Whitehead
13.633
13.233
12.833
12.500
Emma Nedov
13.333
13.333
14.100
13.033
Elena Chipizubov
12.866
12.166
13.200
12.766
Georgia Godwin
13.733
13.500
13.266
12.766
160.663
41.066
40.466
40.566
38.565
11. HUNGARY – 159.715
Sara Peter
14.533
0.000
9.450
12.533
Nora Feher
12.966
13.550
12.800
12.466
Dorina Böczögo
13.750
12.650
0.000
13.000
Bianka Schermann
13.550
13.900
11.800
11.733
Zsofia Kovacs
13.933
14.000
13.450
11.333
159.715
42.216
41.450
38.050
37.999
12. BRAZIL – 159.445
Flavia Saraiva
14.600
13.266
13.033
13.666
Thais Fidelis
13.566
12.300
12.933
13.266
Carolyne Pedro
13.733
12.566
12.233
12.933
Jade Barbosa
0.000
13.650
0.000
0.000
X
0.000
0.000
0.000
0.000
159.445
41.899
39.482
38.166
39.865
Things are not quite as dire as all this, even without Andrade. Brazil went all-in on a very specific group of gymnasts in international meets early in the year, so there’s not a lot of backup scores to use right now. If you were to give the team the scores from Lorrane Oliveira and Jade Barbosa from nationals (high but still), they’re in the mid 162s, which is probably more reflective of where this team is without Andrade. In the 9, but not safely so.
13. ROMANIA – 158.730
Iulia Berar
13.266
12.533
12.950
0.000
Carmen Ghiciuc
13.466
11.933
13.100
10.933
Denisa Golgota
14.500
12.966
13.500
13.866
Ana Maria Puiu
13.600
12.100
13.233
12.900
Maria Holbura
13.233
11.300
12.533
12.966
158.730
41.566
37.599
39.833
39.732
Romania will not arrive at worlds with the expectation of Olympic qualification, but the way things have been going, the fact that it’s not completely out of the question feels like a win.
14. SPAIN – 158.446
Alba Petsico
13.600
12.566
12.033
12.766
Laura Bechdeju
13.400
13.100
12.033
13.250
Ana Perez
13.666
13.733
12.733
13.500
Nora Fernandez
13.766
13.266
11.500
11.600
Cintia Rodriguez
13.333
12.333
13.033
12.733
161.682
41.032
40.099
37.799
39.516
There’s some hearty talent in this generation of Spanish gymnasts, and a few newbies who are showing competitive scores on select pieces. There’s probably not enough depth to get up into the fancy places, but the scores haven’t been too, too far away so far this year.
Individual Qualification – Worlds
For gymnasts in the “but how does little old me make it to the Olympics when I don’t have a big GRRR team qualifying me there???” territory, the best route (and often only route) is going to be through all-around performance in qualification at 2019 worlds.
Olympic qualification for the women is very AA heavy, and the good news for AAers is that there will be A TON of Olympic spots awarded this way. There’s a baseline of 20 spots and will end up being many more than that (see below).
Here’s a little experiment. I took the results of 2018 worlds, and imposed the assumption that the 12 teams that qualified to the Olympics in 2016 do so again this time. If that happens, here are the 20 athletes who would have advanced to the Olympics with nominative spots by virtue of their worlds AA performance if this were done in 2018:
With one spot available per country, and all the gymnasts on the top-12 teams removed, that takes us all the way down to 66th place (and an all-around score of 48.865) to come up with 20 gymnasts.
Ultimately, we’re going to see many more than 20 gymnasts make it from the 2019 worlds AA standings because when other spots go unused, they are reallocated to the next in line in the worlds AA standings.
That becomes significant especially in terms of the 12 individual apparatus spots that are also available at 2019 worlds. Those 12 spots (3 per apparatus) can be earned only by athletes who advance to the event finals. This part of qualification was obviously written with MAG in mind because you don’t really have a lot of gymnasts outside the top 12 teams who even make event finals on the women’s side. There will probably be a few on vault, but it would be unsurprising if most of those 12 spots go unused and are reallocated to the AA standings.
Let’s continue that 2018 experiment: Alexa Moreno, Oksana Chusovitina, and Pyon Rye Yong would get spots for vault, and Jonna Adlerteg would get a spot for bars, but the remaining 8 positions would go unused and revert back to the AA field, adding these gymnasts to the Olympic qualifying list:
Hanna Traukova (BLR) Marina Nekrasova (AZE) Danusia Francis (JAM) Julie Erichsen (NOR) Elina Vihrova (LAT) Jasmin Mader (AUT) Dayana Ardila (COL) Tienna Nguyen (VIE)
So that brings us down to 79th place in the all-around standings and an all-around score of 47.399. (And if you add in Japan’s unused host country spot, that would mean that Maija Leinonen (FIN) in 80th would qualify as well.)
**