After I abandoned you in the cold yesterday, two things happened. One was George Washington breaking 196. The….Fightin’ Wooden Teeth (?) are currently tied for 5th in the country. So that’s a thing.
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Nor Cal Classic ([8] Stanford, [14] Cal, UC Davis. Sacramento State @ San Jose State)
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [10] Auburn @ [12] Oregon State
As always, the full schedule is available at the link at the top. Note that Arkansas and Boise State will not be competing this weekend.
FRIDAY
-Let the live blogging begin! I’ll be here from the start, though there aren’t any really enticing matchups on Friday (you’re not even trying…), so I’ll probably bop around from meet to meet, missing everything important. I do want to make sure to watch a fair chunk of Nebraska since we rarely get to see Nebraska during the season. Florida against TWU will be broadcast on Aunt Flogymnastics, so those of you watching it are required to provide updates of honesty in the comments. You have your mission.
-For Florida, this will be a very comfortable win, but as I mentioned in the preview, I’m looking forward to seeing the lineup strategy. I’ll also be interested to find out where Peyton Ernst is at this point, how Alicia Boren does in her debut given how important she is to the team this year, and how many 10s Bridget Sloan gets. Over/under?
-There’s a little less mystery about Utah because we saw them at the RRP and they diligently release their lineups a million days in advance. This too will be an easy-peasy meet, but we’ve got a lot of event debuts (Lee and Schwab on bars, Merrell and Partyka on beam and floor), which is always reason for a keen eye. Bars and floor are the most depleted since last season, so watch for stuck-at-9.825-itis, though that may be expected to some degree this early in the season. But, is there potential to go much higher?
-Speaking of depleted, Nebraska has a bunch of empty spots in these lineups, and depth will be a major storyline this season. I’m hoping to see as many different freshmen as possible competing to give the team more options than I currently think there are. Let’s not make this not a six-AAers kind of season since that is the most nerve-wracking thing in the world. Someone find the bubble wrap. I’m also interested to see how Arizona State fills out these lineups, as in, can they? There are almost four people on the roster this season, but might it be a little less depressing than last year? A little?
SATURDAY
-Now that’s more like it. We’ve got two fairly huge meets on Saturday, which overlap because, once again, pull it together everyone.
-Georgia travels to Michigan to open the season, and this will be the first meet of the year that actually has an uncertain outcome. Michigan does enter as the favorite, however, competing at home and coming off an impressive first meet for a team that was in so many pieces so recently, but it’s not open and shut. As we know, the Wolverines are still not a deep team and will need the exact competitors they showed in Cancun to be competitive with the best teams in the country this year. But now, after the Cancun success, it’s 197 or bust. Anything less is a regression.
As of this point, Michigan’s strengths compared to Georgia look to be beam and floor given the troubles Georgia had on those events last season. The most important things the Gymdogs need to show in this first meet are a reborn, not-horrifying beam lineup (I’m hoping to see Cherrey and Jay and Schick among the new options to give this lineup some pop) and improved floor endurance versus this point last year. If they can prove those two events are under control, it will minimize any advantage Michigan might have in the second half of the meet. Georgia’s asset should be vault because of Jay and Rogers, though both teams are showing a solid number of 10.0 SVs. While bars will be very different for Georgia this season, for now at least the old story remains that Georgia needs a lead at the halfway point to have a chance. Please change the narrative, beam.
-The main event of the day, however, will be Oklahoma and LSU. Yikes. Showdown. I’m already excited. Nothing like starting the season by heading to LSU to test your mettle as the #1 team in the country. This should be an exceptionally high-quality meet, even in the first week of the season. LSU already looked in form at the preseason showcase, and Oklahoma always starts exceptionally prepared. I’m ready for both of these teams to hit 197 right off the bat, and I don’t think that’s a difficult accomplishment or expectation.
Depending on who LSU has available, these teams are pretty well-matched on vault and floor. LSU has the bigger routines 1-6, so give the Tigers perhaps a slight advantage but not enough to be decisive or conclusive as a prognosticator. It could go either way. The real challenge for LSU, this season and always, will be proving the equal of a team like Oklahoma on bars and beam. Oklahoma is going through its own little reinvention on those events, so checking how those lineups match up to those of the past couple seasons will be interesting. Still, bars and beam are Oklahoma’s events. It would be surprising to see any actual weakness there. LSU has a wildly, wildly talented crop of beam workers, but one that is unproven and without rock-solid lineup saviors. They’ll be thrown into the fire right away by having to keep pace with the storied Oklahoma beam, but that’s what it will take to win the meet.
SUNDAY
-Sunday also brings its share of fun with a 5 ET/2 PT triple-header of serious meets. For reference, I’ll be back for day three of the live blogging weekend for Alabama/UCLA, so if you’re watching either of the others instead, keep the rest of us posted.
-Though UCLA is at home, which always helps, the Bruins are not exactly known for starting quickly or being at top form in January, so Alabama has more on the line as the team that really should win. Much is expected of Kiana Winston (by me), so we’ll have to see how she looks since her cameo last season doesn’t really count. Winston is especially significant with Lauren Beers coming off preseason surgery, meaning she may not be normal four-9.900s Lauren Beers right from the start.
The vault decisions will be fascinating. Alabama has a number of 1.5 options, but we’ll have to see how many of them come to fruition right away, while UCLA has some work to do to keep pace while lacking the same pedigree of huge vaults. Paging Pua Hall. For the Bruins, this meet is all about Ohashi watch. Without Peszek and with Peng limited, they need a star to step up, and Ohashi is the nominee. That’s particularly true in this meet because if UCLA is going to win, it will be with beam loveliness since I do expect Alabama to be farther along and show more difficulty on vault and floor. UCLA’s beam should be exceptionally fantastic this year (though Alabama’s will be no slouch), and it would be really disheartening to see one of those UCLA January three-fall meets in such an significant showdown.
-Last season, Stanford started with not enough people to compete, so the goal this time is…enough people to compete. I have no expectations for Stanford early in the season because we won’t see real Stanford until, oh, mid-March (that’s pretty true for UCLA too), but gauging depth of scores, at least six potential competitive scores on each event, will be the major factor here. A prepared and solid Cal will smell blood again this season.
-Auburn/Oregon State may feel like the ugly duckling of the day since so much attention will be on UCLA and Alabama, but that should be a pretty competitive meet itself. Auburn has multiple new routines to try out, so we’ll have to see if this group looks like one that might become a Super Six team again in a few months. Or is it going to be a case of Caitlin Atkinson and her interns like it was in 2014? To tally the upset, Oregon State must show who besides Maddie Gardiner is ready to compete with top-10 teams. It’s the old refrain: where are the 9.9s? Right now, Auburn looks to have more of them because of Atkinson, and while it doesn’t necessarily take 9.9s to win in January, the location of the 9.9s is a serious mystery the Beavs have to solve this season. It would be nice to see at least the larval stages of a few of them.
2016 Outlook Alabama enters 2016 as an obvious Super Six pick and one of the top few contenders for the championship, a deep roster that should be able to improve on the quality of last year’s team. Among the first-tier teams, that’s a claim that really only Alabama can make this season, which is probably the best argument for potential glory at this point in the year. Alabama performed well in 2015, right on track with the quality we expect every year, yet was always one notch behind the very best schools. The biggest scores were just out of reach. Even though the losses of Clark and Williams put a dent in Alabama’s scoring potential, between the injury comebacks of Winston and Bailey and the large class of freshman contributors, Alabama has gained more scores than lost and should be a more convincing contender for the title this time around.
Key Competitor Kiana Winston. She’s the secret weapon this year and basically counts as a bonus freshman since she wasn’t able to come back fully last season. Winston was recruited to be an anchor-star for this team, so as the likes of Clark and Williams make way, it becomes more important for Winston to take up that mantle. To truly challenge Florida and Oklahoma (and not simply keep pace with last year’s performances), Alabama needs an extra injection of 9.9s across three or four events that wasn’t around last season, and Winston is the most likely to provide that. If she’s truly back and actually healthy for five consecutive minutes, she has both the power and execution to be a top all-arounder.
Vault
I’m interested to see how vault develops for Alabama this year. Because it’s Alabama and vault, the score needs to be a big deal, but the coaches have some decisions to make about difficulty. A number of people on the roster are capable of 1.5s, but Lauren Beers is coming off an offseason of surgeries and is a bit behind on vault and floor, while Mack Brannan, Nickie Guerrero, Ari Guerra, and Abby Armbrecht have all performed 1.5s in the recent past but lately have been working fulls. I’d expect to see 1.5s from at least a few of them this season, but in the case of someone like Brannan, she went down to the full last year because it was the better score. We’ll have to see if the 0.05 boost changes that or if the full is the still the more prudent vault. Regardless, there’s a sufficient mix of huge fulls and potential difficulty on the roster to see this as a 49.350-49.400 event again. The question is how consistently the 1.5s show up and if they help/are necessary.
In addition to these vaulters, Carley Sims and Keely McNeer both scored well enough for their fulls last season in early lineup positions and should be able to go into the 9.8s again this year. I’d certainly add Winston to that mix along with perhaps Bresette, giving the team a healthy crop of powerful, high-amplitude options. And then there’s someone like Kenzie Valentin, who was an important vaulter for Arizona but hasn’t been close to getting a look for Alabama. Does having a 10.0 vault help her stock? With the cloud of difficulty looming over everyone this year and Alabama’s added depth, it may be tougher this season for past vaulters like Katie Bailey to make it back. She’ll be one of the choices, but it’s a serious 11-12 competitor fight, which means the team should be able to pick the very best 9.850+ fulls to go along with the 1.5s that do emerge.
Bars
Given the abilities and career track record of the gymnasts on this deep roster, Alabama shouldn’t really have a problem on bars this year, but as with many of the other teams across the country, Alabama has been bleeding bars 9.9s and counting a few too many 9.8s over the last year or so. Those 49.275s at nationals last year were not competitive enough, leaving at least some room for further stuck-in-the-49.2s worries this season. How much will we be missing those big, nailed Sledge/Clark/Jacob DLOs, or will the talent deliver?
Jetter was supposed to be the next bars leader, but issues in landing that terrifying double front have rendered her more a supporting 9.850 than a scoring star, which means the duty falls to Kiana Winston this year to elevate the lineup. She has 9.9s in her, and with the official Bars Queen scepter still sitting unclaimed on its plush red pillow, the opportunity to begin her dynasty is there for the taking. Other occasional 9.9s will come from Katie Bailey and her famous full-out and Lauren Beers, who has suddenly become a bars worker late in her career and can power her way through a solid routine, though leg breaks and steps on her own double front can bring the score down. When those four have their dismounts clicking, this lineup will be strong and won’t have an excuse for going under the 49.3 plateau, but I am concerned about stepping to 9.825s. The biggest factor making me bullish about Alabama’s chance this year is the fight for lineup spots on every event, and bars is no exception. Aja Sims has been a constant in this lineup for two seasons, but it’s one of those inexplicable routines that makes me feel like I’m taking crazy pills because her form is all over the place and then she gets a 9.875 for some reason. McNeer and Brannan are quite precise and alternated that leadoff spot last year for 9.850s, and both could comfortably jump into any remaining lineup spots themselves. This freshman class is not really a bars group, but bars has been the strength for Amanda Huang in her JO career, and Ari Guerra absolutely has the potential to put together Sarah DeMeo-style Alabama power routine at some point. While any of these nine could go, the biggest thing is finding a couple weekly 9.9s to get out of the medium scores. I nominate Winston and Bailey.
Beam
Talk about a fight for places. Just as a dearth of truly impressive bars routines is a theme in NCAA this year, the potential for an exceptional beam lineup carries through most of the top teams this year. This is not a season in which we should tolerate watching a lot of 9.825 blah beam. The talent is better than that. For Alabama, while the scores and consistency weren’t always so much with the great 2015, that beam lineup was the most pleasantly watchable Alabama beam team in quite a while, and the options have only increased this year, which should help extract the fallsies and wobblies, leaving only the goods. Whichever six are ultimately chosen, everyone in Alabama’s beam lineup will have the potential to go 9.9, and we can reasonably expect 49.400 for hit meets.
This will, however, be a very challenging lineup to make. The star of the group is Aja Sims. None of the form crazies from bars carry over to her beam routine, where she shows exceptional splits and big difficulty that can go 9.950 multiple times per season. Keeping it going, Katie Bailey and Keely McNeer are both fluid in their work with a terminal case of the pretties. At various times, they have been held down to 9.850 by performing in the opening spot, but in wobble-free routines, they’re capable of more. Beers and Guerrero both made the lineup last season and perform with the more dominant, break-the-beam style we associate with Alabama, as does Ari Guerra, who would seem like an easy bet to join the lineup if there weren’t so many choices. For instance, Winston, who has seriously developed her splits, toe point, and form in the years following her elite career. Hers can be an important beam score, though I’m really rooting for Armbrecht’s smooth and elegant beam work to make the lineup as well. And that isn’t counting Huang, who is supposed to be a bars and beam specialist, and Giancroce, who has some memorable style. Jeepers. Too many talented options this year to end up with a lineup that goes 48.950/49.200 at nationals. There will be no need to keep using an inconsistent routine.
Floor
Alabama had a couple strong floor routines in last year’s lineup, which consistently scored well, but the departure of a couple wow routines from the previous season was pretty apparent as the Tide always came in a tenth or so behind the big 49.5ers. While very good (4th in the country, so it’s hard to complain), it wasn’t quite the dominant event Alabama’s floor is known for being. This year will probably be similar-to-slightly better, 49.350s and 49.4s, though expectations might elevate depending on how much Winston and Guerra are able to contribute. Guerra is a floor powerhouse with a huge DLO, and while Winston’s leg-injury history is cause for some restraint, she too has a DLO along with that same all-element proficiency from beam. If they join Beers and Carley Sims every week, this lineup starts to become much more competitive with the likes of LSU/Florida/Oklahoma for the best-in-the-country crown. It will be the DLO sisters this year, as Sims and Beers can both be expected to go 9.900 again for their “THIS DLO” themed routines.
For the remaining spots, Bailey, Brannan, Jetter, and occasionally Aja Sims have all proven the ability to go at least 9.850-9.875 every time and should see opportunities, with Brannan and Jetter usually the most likely to hit the 9.900 mark. Those eight provide enough options that the rest of the double-pike-a-thon roster will probably just act as backups, though Bresette did have a big double arabian back in the day, and while Valentin hasn’t done much on floor for Alabama, she does have a double front, so that’s always worth a mention. The key to success is probably Guerra since her specialty is floor, so if she emerges as a star, the state of the lineup will be strong.
OKLAHOMA This Sooner freshman class has a little more work to do than originally anticipated after Brenna decided she was starting to contract some confidence, and the only cure was elite. Dr. Martha had the prescription, alright. Now, Oklahoma is down 3 routines from Brewer, 3 from Dowell, 2 from Clark, and 1 from Sorensen, which is more than this tiny freshman class will be able to muster, meaning the team will be leaning fairly heavily on the 90%-missing Charity Jones and the “how’s that knee, again?” Maile Kanewa to act as reinforcements at some point to keep the lineups well stocked.
Aside from Brenna’s contributions on vault and floor, however, Oklahoma has lost value mostly on bars and beam, and this new class should be able to help out with that. It’s a very “pretty” group, so expect humanity to continue the trend of random and inadvertent weird Kathy Johnson moans, because Oklahoma. You know who you are. Nicole Lehrmann is most likely to be a major contributor, a former junior elite whose JO gymnastics has been clean as a PBS show. The toe point is a major standout quality, particularly on bars (that buttah bail), and she has the leg from and dance elements to put together a deduction-minimal beam routine.
On vault, she has shown an extended, precise full and the occasional 1.5, which could be something to watch given the rise of the 1.5 this year (although on vault Oklahoma is already replete with returners, more so than on the other events). Lehrmann doesn’t necessarily have the big power on floor—though she has performed a full-in with mixed results—but she’s a straddle element queen with clean D tumbling that could be useful. Also, this choreographic style is already KJ heaven.
Alex Marks is joining Oklahoma at the start of the competition season. She was an elite until relatively recently when she disappeared with implied injury, which put her on the JO-to-NCAA track until roster openings put her on the NCAA-right-now-immediately track. I mostly remember her as that one I’d never heard of at Classic (there’s always one) who suddenly did a back full on beam. Beam is an interesting one for Marks because it has often been her weakest score, but I really like her on it.
Give the Oklahoma beam machine some time with that routine, and I’m there for it all day. Marks has some potential pop on vault (was training a DTY way, way back), though a few of the more recent showings have been hit-or-miss with height and landing position. Since returning to JO in 2015, she has performed a twisting-only floor routine, featuring a well-executed and usable front double full, but it will be worth keeping an eye on where the power quotient is now. Or will her NCAA career will be more of the “toe-pointing my ass off” bars and beam type?
The walkon joining the Sooners this year is Megan Thompson, and it’s unlikely that we’ll see much from her. She had some cleanish tumbling back in the day, but at this point she’s mostly a beamer. She does have a competitive skill repertoire there featuring a laudably non-terrible aerial to scale. They may hope to get her on the Sorensen track.
ALABAMA As usual, Alabama has several million freshmen in this year’s class somehow, many of whom should figure as spot contributors (1 and 2 events for the majority of them) and should give the Tide a net gain in depth despite the losses of Clark in the AA, Williams on 2 events, and Frost on floor.
The most prominent of the Alabama freshmen is Ariana Guerra, who was a Stars gymnast before becoming a Texas Dream, and who put together a pretty solid elite career with scores in the low 14s/56s before the injury tidal wave knocked her out for the next century. Guerra is mostly known as a power gymnast, though she did not perform vault at the Halloween intrasquad for presumably all-the-injuries reasons. Floor should be her most important contribution to the team, with a strong DLO, easy double pike, and dance elements that she can endure without much deduction. She’s such an Alabama floor worker.
Guerra should also be excellent at anger beam, which will be important in the absence of Kayla Williams. She’ll slam down that punch front and two-footed layout, though splits are a challenge for her and could limit her influence. They’ll have to be smart about that routine composition. Even though Guerra is not a natural bars type, she has really worked the toe point to make it a stronger event, along with a high Ray and secure DLO. The angles and leg separations can be an issue, but evolving into another Bama power-bars worker is probably her destiny.
It should be noted at this point that I’m getting ready to be into Abby Armbrecht’s beam routine. The potential is there. The train is in the station. The defining factor of the Duckworth era so far has been infusing more style into beam routines (big surprise), and this should be an excellent project.
She already has the splits, the leg form, and a sheep jump that isn’t very NCAA in that it’s an actual sheep jump and not this:
Nailed it. Armbrecht should also figure on other events, especially with the clean y1.5 she has shown in the past, her most important scoring asset throughout JO. On floor, her work is pretty but not that big, which is a hallmark of much of this freshman class. A number of them can do perfectly clean, nice, acceptable, yada yada yada floor routines, but they’re not big Bama routines and therefore may find it difficult to squeeze into the lineup when competing for spots with the returners.
That’s true for Amanda Huang, who has some respectable twisting skills but wouldn’t necessarily be one of the six on floor when bigger options present themselves. Huang is going to be more the bars and beam type, with a comfortable piked jaeger and clean bail to build a routine around. Her bars routine still needs to be refined in the handstands and some details, but it’s a believable lineup option. The beam story is similar. She has the skill set and good enough leg form, but can be a bit close to the beam on a lot of elements with some stiffness to her performance, so there are areas to work through if she’s to get into lineups on a team this competitive. Angelina Giancroce, of “wasn’t she supposed to go to Georgia?” fame, is another who earns her keep on form and style more than difficulty, with dance elements being her primary strength. She scored well on floor during her JO career with those fully-hit splits and clean twisting form, but like some of the others, she does not have difficulty to be a sure option. I’m more interested in beam because of her style, even though she can be quite tentative which could compromise her chances, and bars, even though bars was far from her best JO event. She got about a 1.100 every time but has toe point, respectable amplitude on her shoot to high bar, and an elegant DLO, so I’m putting a star and a question mark next to that routine (like you do) because there’s something there.
Jenna Bresette is a former GAGE whom I have not seen anything from in a thousand years, but she’s another along with Guerra who could figure on floor. She had a high double arabian back in the day mixed with mostly solid leaps that should see her become an option. They’ll have to replace Clark and Frost in that floor lineup, and Guerra and Bresette will be in contention for those spots along with returners like Aja Sims. I haven’t seen Bresette vault in an entire lifetime (meaning five years which is too long ago to be relevant), but the coaches seem to be high on her yfull, so there’s that.
Who else are we missing? Just 1100 more people? There’s Avery Rickett, who’s also jumping in the clown car. She has a double pike and double tuck on floor and can give them a beam routine, but doesn’t have the amplitude and form to make lineups.
MICHIGAN Thankfully, Michigan has the common decency not to have a hundred kabillion freshmen this year, with just the two. That’s a polite, easy-to-keep-track-of amount of freshmen. But I do expect significant contribution from both of them, enough to make up for the 6 lost routines from Sugiyama and Parker without enduring much of a lull. This roster should be able to maintain the scoring pace from last season.
Olivia Karas was a star in JO, making a splash at both the Nastia Nastiaship Starring Nastia As Nastia and JO Nationals this year, and should continue the trend in college. She’s a good bet for three events, perhaps four. Definitely vault. Karas has a 1.5 that is monstrous in a good way, with a consistently strong landing. She’s a solid bet for late-lineup/anchor there.
We’ll also see her on floor, with that high double arabian (a little cowboy but not problematic—her double arabian is not a microaggression) and impressive amplitude in leaps that will help her be one of those gymnasts who doesn’t have to fake it. The acro on beam is secure, particularly the punch front, coupled with acceptably hit splits. She does dismount with only a gainer pike, but we’ll just have to get through that emotionally.
My one question with Karas is bars, which is clearly not her preferred event. It’s OK, with good form on a shap + pak combination, but the dismount might take her out of contention. In JO, it has been an unconnected underswing to front pike, which is such a Canadian-floor-specialist bars dismount that I can’t even deal with it, and valued at only a C. They’ll have to figure out something to do with that if she’s going to be a lineup gymnast. They’ve done it before.
Emma McLean really came on strong this year in the JO ranks, and has many similar strengths to Karas. The main difference between the two is McLean’s lower difficulty, but she has shown a very high full on vault that I have to imagine could become a 1.5. Even if not, it should be an option. And while her floor difficulty has maxed out at a double pike, it’s a big double pike, and her height and cleanliness has brought in consistently impressive scores in the JO ranks.
I’m less sold on her beam (the legs are pretty floppy and the acro can be low) and bars, but the amplitude on bars was much better at JOs than at the Nastia, and her tkatchev already looks improved in preseason training videos. Because Michigan. They will still also have to come up with a dismount for her, though. But really, the team returns Brown, Sheppard, Artz, Williams, Casanova, and Christopherson from last season’s bars group, so that could also just be it.
