Tag Archives: Aly Raisman

P&G Championships

Checking Out Some D – Post-Classic Edition

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Secret Classic is just Secret Classic. It’s the first step, not the decisive step. It’s never truly going to ruin anyone’s chances all by itself (which is code for “don’t write off Madison Kocian just because of that”), but this year’s competition did reveal a couple key changes in the D-score rankings as well as reinforcing the viability of several contenders on specific events, gymnasts who were closer to question-mark territory before the meet (which is code for “Aly Raisman had an important meet in spite of bars”).

So, as before, I have taken the current difficulty scores for the senior elites advancing to nationals and arranged the Ds by size, now updated to include the routines performed at Secret Classic if they reflected an upgrade (or change in composition—for instance, I put Rachel Gowey’s bars D back down to 6.3 from 6.5 as it appears she’s no longer doing inbar skills).

Once again, I removed the stick bonuses from the D scores because stick bonuses are the work of a multi-headed demon creature from below the sea and serve only to make the US scores even more misleading and unrealistic than they might be otherwise. Yurchenko fulls for seniors are also awarded just 4.7 instead of 5.0 at US competitions (because only stupid foreign jerks who are totally untalented do Yurchenko fulls), so I restored those to their actual 5.0 D level as well.

All-Around

pcaa

Among the Timmy D comments heard ’round the gymternet during the competition was the categorical statement that Aly Raisman will not be doing bars in qualification at the Olympics. …OK?

Now, will Aly Raisman have the weakest bars routine on the Olympic team? Yes. But that didn’t stop Martha from holding Nichols out of the AA at worlds last year to give Raisman a shot at qualifying, only to have Nichols return to the lineup to perform her first bars routine of the competition in the team final (a conventional-wisdom no-no, but a decision that worked out well).

I wouldn’t be all that surprised if it happened again at the Olympics. Though imagine the hell that will be raised if, say, Laurie Hernandez gets held off of bars in qualification so that Raisman can do the all-around instead of her.  Continue reading Checking Out Some D – Post-Classic Edition →

Secret Classic

Secret Classic Preview

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It’s happening. No turning back now.

Secret Classic. This Saturday. The biggest little competition in gymnastics. I say that because classic isn’t really…important. It doesn’t matter who wins. If you screw it up royally, you can still become world champion later that year. And the popular kids totally only do bars and beam, anyway.

For reference, if we look back to 2012 Secret Classic, Douglas did three events and messed up beam, Wieber did two events and messed up bars, Anna Li fell on bars, and Ebee had several natural disasters on both beam and floor, all of which we remembered exactly zero percent once we got to nationals and trials when it was ALTERNATE SPOTS FOR EVERYONE. So, I would caution against reading too much into the inevitable falls we’ll see at classic. People can (and do) come back from them later in the summer.

At the same time, this competition will set the tone for the composition choices we’ll see this year (if you have an upgrade, it needs to be shown yesterday), which will better separate realistic from unrealistic team permutations and clarify who are the favorites versus the challengers.

It’s also just plain exciting because OLYMPIC SEASON YOU GUYS. Classic is the beginning of the end of this journey…

Oh no. No. I feel a fluff piece coming on. Can’t stop it. Run. Save yourself.

“It begins [PAUSE] as a dream. [CHALK BUCKET. ADJUSTING GRIPS TO INDICATE HARD WORK.] But for five young women [PAUSE] what was once no more than a fleeting fantasy [BLURRY BLACK-AND-WHITE FILTER OVER THE CHEERING CROWDS OF GABBY’S 2012 WIN], is just a few short weeks from reality. [COLOR AND RESOLUTION RESTORED. COPACABANA BEACH.] Rio de Janeiro. [CHRIST THE REDEEMER STATUE.] All those long nights, spent bathed in golden dreams of a land called Rio, come down to this. [TIME LAPSE OF ARENA FILLING UP. WATCHFUL EYES OF MARTHA KAROLYI] A vault. [MARONEY’S 2012] A stick. [SIMONE STICKING THE BILES] …A lifetime. [BACK TO THE GYM. SOLITARY FIGURE REMOVES TAPE IN THE CORNER AS THE LIGHTS TURN OFF.]”

OK, now that we’ve got that out of my system, for the hour at least, here are a few of the routines and people I’m most interested by and will have the keenest vulture eyes on during Saturday’s Secret Classic.

1. The Gabbanar and the Raismanar

So much of the team composition (whether Hernandez or Nichols is better suited to help the team, whether a bars specialist is required to up the D score), will be decided by how many people have viable Amanars. Nothing that occurs this weekend will be more critical than the State of the Amanars Address.

There’s no guarantee that everyone will do every event, especially the leg events, but I have to think that Proof of Amanar is among the top priorities for all the top non-Simones. Nichols isn’t competing, meaning we’ll have to wait to see where she is on her vault journey (it begins as a dream…), but Raisman and Douglas can set the vaulting tone. Continue reading Secret Classic Preview →

Secret Classic

Checking Out Some D – Classic Edition

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Here we stand, firmly on the edge of the Olympic summer, a week away from one of the most anticipated days on the US gymnastics calendar, Secret Classic podium training. The moment of truth for every weird twitter upgrade rumor and composition question swirling around the US arsenal.

At this point in the year, the D situation usually remains shrouded in mystery, but with all the Pac Rims and Jesolos and actually-going-to-world-cups in 2016, this time we have a slightly better sense of what everyone is planning to compete. That allows for a somewhat more credible assessment of team chances and, more critically, what upgrades and performances we need to see at Classic for certain people to solidify or improve their standings in the national team hierarchy.

I’ve taken the US senior elites’ current difficulty and arranged the Ds by size, and at this point it should become clear that this whole exercise is simply an elaborate excuse to make a bunch of tired and infantile D jokes.

For this purpose, “current” difficulty means the highest awarded in competition in the last twelve months. I did, however, remove the stick bonuses from domestic Ds because of UGH, so hopefully these D scores are a little more realistic than actual reality.

Let’s begin with the overall picture.

AA

YOU MEAN SIMONE HAS THE HIGHEST D SCORE IN THE LAND???

(I’m counting the Amanar for Simone, not the Cheng, since that will still be her #1 vault, but with Skinner…do we know which way she’s leaning?)

This is the moment for the official disclaimer that I’m well aware that D is only part of the package. If we were to put together the five US gymnasts who would contribute the highest cumulative difficulty at the Olympics, it would be this (for the moment).

Five

I don’t think you’ll get all that many people arguing that this should be the ultimate Olympic team.

But, a competitive D is an essential component if a gymnast is hoping to contribute on an event in the Olympics, so let’s break it down by apparatus.

FLOOR

FX

As has been borne out by both difficulty and overall scores during the past year, Biles and Raisman remain the US’s essential floor workers.

Floor is Raisman’s primary (and some might argue sole) justification for a spot on an Olympic team at this point in her career, but in terms of confirming her status this summer, Raisman must retain a serious multi-tenth edge over all non-Biles floor workers. If other people start wiggling into a reasonable proximity to Raisman on floor, we might start looking at other team compositions that could gain back those couple tenths elsewhere.

Nichols was the #3 floorsy last year, but there’s a large peloton of very similar contenders in the low-6 D range, so no one else is really making a serious impact crater on floor. From Skinner at position #3 in the above list all the way down to Hernandez in position #9, will there be all that much difference in score? Continue reading Checking Out Some D – Classic Edition →

Live Blog

Pacific Rim Live Blog

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Because why not?

In a weekend without NCAA gymnastics, we must find some way to occupy our time, so USAG has charitably provided the Pacific Rim Championship, the Pacific Northwest’s most important geographically arbitrary biennial international gymnastics competition. It’s kind of a big deal, you guys.

It’s the precursor to next week’s Countries That Share a Border With Another Country That Has a Name Ending in Y Championship. Prestigious. Sorry, Brazil, I can’t invite you because…I think you might border the Atlantic.

It’s also the chance for Simone Biles to square off against Canada, Australia, and a bunch of gymnasts who are dismounting bars with a Nastia flyaway and then go, “Oh, did I win?” Yes, Simone. You won.

I love that Russia and China don’t even bother sending women’s teams anymore. For a while they would fake it by sending some C Teamers and Maria Kharenkova, but now they can’t even bring themselves to throw a random junior at us. The Russians are far too busy fulfilling drug tests with a piece of notebook paper that says “NO MELDONIUM HERE.” Done and done.

Also, in case you thought the rules of this competition dictated that teams had to send three seniors and three juniors…nope. Not anymore. Because it was really important that the US send an impossibly strong team of seniors to make sure to win this competition by 78 points. Winning by 5 points would have been so embarrassing. What is the expression, taking a gun to a knife fight? The team the US has sent to this competition is like taking a gun to a sewing circle. Put away that gun, Louisa.

To the gymnastics? Shall we?

They’ve “journeyed to Everett, Washington.” Like they took the Oregon Trail.

This national anthem is a little elementary school dodgeball tournament, isn’t it? Oh, Sue.

Macready’s dream in life is to be the 24th member of Jay-Z’s entourage.

Our PA guy’s pronunciation of Allana Slater like her name is Spanish is my new favorite thing. 

Tim has already given Simone five Olympic medals.
I’m watching both the NBC nu-trio and Evan and Sam. But I’m probably going to listen to NBC only because it’s way more fun to make fun of. Evan and Sam are…just enjoyable.

“HIS LIGHT DIDN’T COME ON.”

We’re already going Brenna time on floor. Almost goes OOB on her double front – nailed front double pike – “you’re looking at a real veteran, Brenna Dowell.” “You’re looking at an old hag, Brenna Dowell.”

A couple slightly short landings and the big lunge out of the opening pass for Brenna. Otherwise solid enough. Oklahoma hasn’t really missed a beat without her, but it’s exciting to think about Dowell and Nichols adding themselves to the mix next year.

Sam is not happy with Kuwajima’s handstand speed.

Ragan Smith on floor now -with her “Hi, I’m 11” Addam’s family routine – just to let us know that she’s a pixie. Short on DLO – large stumble, triple full is better. A little short on double arabian – secure landing on double pike, chest down. How very NCAA of her.

Sam and Evan could not be less enthusiastic about having to pretend to know about trampoline. But they are totally making fun of the NBC trio, and I couldn’t be happier. You go, guys.

McGregor of NZL is heading to Boise State soon. We won’t see her vault because Laurie Hernandez is up on floor. OK DLO, it’s a little low and worrying, but she got it this time. Her second pass is a double arabian, near stuck, very strong – instead of a third pass, Miss Val actually just drops into the arena on a hot air balloon and steals her and takes her to UCLA, which is a shame because it means she won’t be able to finish the competition.

In the race to see which new senior is going to steal Maggie Nichols’ rightful place, it’s Hernandez 1, Smith 0.
 McGregor did a DTY. Low, but that’s going to be a useful full or 1.5 for BSU next year.
Second vault is a 1/2 on pike 1/2, quite messy to I’d guess keeping her with the yurchenko entry for NCAA next year.

Peterman has fallen on beam. Off the Olympic team!

Raisman time – 1.5 to double arabian to layout, and stays comfortable in bounds this time. Double L is short and falls out of it, strong Dos Santos to stag, the best pass in her routine usually. High and comfortable DLO as well – we’re pretending these leaps don’t exist because it’s just better for everyone, we won’t pretend like they’re close to 180 – hit routine, what she needed to do to make sure she stays ahead of the other floor options. She’s still a more important floor score, which can get her on the team.

Roberts for Canada had a bit of a wobble burger on beam.

Biles time now – fab DLO 1/1, of course, bounces back, but excellent height and form obviously – do I even need to quick hit it? It’s good. I’m disturbed by these little unfortunate squeak screams in the music here. It feels…inappropriate? Like…is that woman OK? Casual sticks on the double double and the full in. You know. Whatever.

You get the feeling that this music was chosen for her by a focus group. What will be the most marketable and Rio-themed music for Simone to be used during highlight reels during the Olympics to make her the star we need her to be?

Bali, Mali, Chile, Malawi. It’s back. It will never leave us. We will never survive.

Don’t worry, the US is ahead by 765 points after one rotation.

Extended team ass closeup as they walk to the next event? Necessary?

Simone breaks 16 on floor. Obviously.

NBC showing highlights of the men’s competition. It includes two routines. That pretty much sums it up.

We’re already to vault!
Smith does a DTY – crazy legs on her block and chest down, but secure landing.

Sullivan of NZ with a tkatchev/bail type bars routine – short on the bail, dismounts double pike with bounce forward.

Hernandez – VT – DTY – better chest position than Smith but a large bounce back – exactly one centimeter of distance from the table.

Rousseau hands down on a double pike on floor. What is the Brittany Rogers situation?

Dowell – VT – DTY – good block and height, same bounce back as Hernandez.

McGregor – was working well through the shap – very close on her shoot back to high and struggles after that – has the compulsory Boise State gienger but the leg form will need to be revised. 

Raisman – VT – bounces A THOUSAND miles out of her 2.5. She’ll obviously be pissed because they were much better in training. That does not help her case because that will score below a strong DTY. The team needs her 2.5 because of questions around people like Nichols. This isn’t the 2.5 the team needs.

Copiak is going to be a big deal for Washington next year to replace Northey’s scores.

Simone also flies forward out of her 2.5. What is happening? Large lunge.
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE CHENG? CHENG CHENG CHENG.

Cheng is much better than her Amanar suddenly today. Small hop, gets it around pretty well, low chest, hop back. It’ll be fine for the Olympics. NBC is already licking its USA VS. NORTH KOREA narrative chops for the vault final at the Olympics. Can you imagine? I can imagine.

Shallon Olsen has a double double. That will help, also a really tight tuck position on her double back, like an actual circle.

Evan tells us we won’t be seeing Brittany Rogers until vault. BUT I CAN’T WAIT THAT LONG.

This meet is going at SEC pace, and I like it. The US is going to be done in like an hour.

NZL had a disaster bail. Roberts from Canada shows a Dos Santos – and the Charleston -there is some solid floor difficulty in the next group of the Canadian national team, so they don’t just have to rely on Ellie forever.

Those US vaults were better than any other country’s but not so awesome with the landings this time. Martha is going to have to put quite a few people at the punishment table tonight. No watermelon slices for you.

The trendy hot take after Jesolo was that Aly’s stock is PLUMMETING. It isn’t. That 2.5 is still…no me gusta, but I think it will get close enough, and her floor routine continues getting her on the team.

Some really unfortunate thing happened where a little girl had a cry for help and then Macready just made her hug a sad hershey’s kiss. I don’t want to talk about it anymore.

Raisman to bars. Aly’s same bars routine as always. There was a really popular claim that Aly had IMPROVED HER BARS FORM since London. Uh……a little….?

Hernandez is next. she has a leg crazy on her stradle full every time, but she has some tremendous toe point and form usually, not so much this time with a ragged pak, hop on tuck full. Some iffier moments than she usually shows in training, on an event that should be quite strong for her, which is becoming a bit of a trend. Her bars training routines are better than her competition routines this year.

I lied about following the NBC commentators. The NBC stream is behind, and I’m a slave to live. Also, Sam and Evan are delightful to listen to.

Nice DTY from Olsen. High, small hop back. Very usable in an Olympic/Worlds context.

Biles on bars – her new name is Simone AHHHHH according to the crowd – Good hit, excellent form throughout. It always looks like she wants to connect the pak out of her tkatchev but has to wait until the piked tkatchev. Sticks tuck full dismount like nothing. Very controlled and composed form throughout.

Olsen’s second vault is a Khorkina with signature Khorkina legs.

Brittany Rogers – VT -Excellent DTY, lunge back – but clear that she should be doing the 1.5 for UGA, not the DTY like I wanted. second vault is half on layout 1/2.

OK. Dowell bars. Here we go. Martha has prepared the pitchfork just in case.

Dowell – UB – toe full to shapto tkatchev, high for a tkatchev out of a shap – hit jaeger – Church to pak – shap 1/2 – presice final hs – hop forward on DLO 1/1. SHE HIT A ROUTINE. Much more boring and smart composition, and a competitive D score.

Did Sam accidentally just tell us that Brenna is coming out? No?

Important hit for Brenna. She might get a crust of bread for that.

Locklear – UB – same composition that we’ve seen from her – nice line and handstands throughout – very high tkatchev, the problem for her is that her spot has been taken by Kocian, and she doesn’t have anything upgraded that is going to knock out Kocian if Kocian comes back health……AH HAHAHAHAHA. 

“Spot the tramp.” I play that game too.

Ragan Smith is charitably getting to go on bars even though she was not selected as one of the five.
Simith – jumping to the high bar is the hardest skill for her in this routine – it’s not a natural event for her or a big routine, but she has the composition, clean line, small hop on tuck full.

Sullivan has some wobbles on beam, but this is a higher-level NZL showing than we have seen a bigger international meets.

USAG stream goes to commercial over Macready. Bregman gets us.

Final rotation beam times now. Ooohh, Locklear got a real beam spot over Dowell? Damn.
Evan and Sam pointing out those seriously wonky knees on her loso series. Nice punch front – pretty comfortable and controlled position on L turn as well – switch and switch 1/2 are solid 180, loses her tow point on her switch 1/2 – double tuck with step back. This routine has become more consistent, which is a big deal for her, but it’s not a TF routine.

Smith coming up on beam. My preferred event for her.
Smith – BB – wolfathon early – solid on layout 2ft series, secure on tuck full as well – this is the one event where she could potentially be a TFer, but others are ahead of her. Chest pretty well up on the double pike, small hop back.

Roberts just did a pak into her appendix. And another fall. Oh, Canada. Our home and native land.

Raisman – BB – check on front pike – she has been more nervous on beam this quad than last, not quite the same level of sturdy German-neess – “layout” to two feet – very secure – switch star jump 1/2 to back pike is very secure – I kid – I kid because her form is poor. It’s a credit to her that I still really like her in spite of all these things. It’s not necessarily explicable. I just do. Strong upright Patterson, but a step to the side this time, which she wasn’t doing in training.

Hernandez – BB – fantastic walkover to split and sissone – lovely – extended legs on her three series as well – slightly obsessed, don’t worry about it – not a wobble on any of this acro – one check on switch half. Excellent switch ring, how it’s supposed to look – double pike, chest down with a step. Will be a high score. This is the trouble for Smith in trying to squeeze her way onto the team. She’s being out-touched by Hernandez.

Rogers on bars. We know this game. And she fell on a jaeger. We also know this game. Oh, Brittany. But…from a stalder full to reverse? You go. Ricna to pak is close, which she has done a few times at Georgia. Nice shap 1/2, DLO with a hop. She made the mistake now, and won’t next weekend…is what I’m going to tell myself. 

Aly Raisman finished a tenth ahead of Laurie Hernandez, as was agreed.

We go to Simone on beam to finish things off – hits her wolf 2.5 in a not terrible way – that barani, it’s just a little not-perfect for Simone, isn’t it? It’s fine, but chest down, and everything else is ideal. Losos are strong, as is punch front, a check or two here but this is not the tentative non-important early-season beam routine we sometimes see from Simone. Just sticks her tuck full.

I feel like maybe Simone won.

Brenna – BB – front tuck mount, yes you do – solid – walkover – bhs full, small check on loso series – short on a switch split – this is the routine she wasn’t doing for Oklahoma, but she has been OK so far, the form isn’t quite Oklahomay, but I can see her getting a spot next season. Step back on double pike.

62.450 for Biles. And that’s our quick little meet done and dusted. Event finals tomorrow!

Brenna is 4th AA for a 58.850. It helps. Not Olympic Team helps, but it keeps her in the Trials mix. It’s going to be damn hard to make Trials this year, and there are people in the Hundley category who will get Memmeled after nationals.