The quest for the individual AA title and event titles has never been anywhere in the vicinity of a primary focus during the NCAA gymnastics ALL ABOUT THE TEAM Championship, brought to you by THE CLOSEST GROUP OF SISTERS. Spoiler alert: It’s all about the team. All in. No regrets. Life lesson. Teamwork. Growth. Having each other’s backs.
Individual accolades are the ugly stepsister of college gymnastics, the one who is hidden in the attic and not allowed to come out when guests are around. (You have one of those too, right?) Publicly acknowledging a desire for individual recognition is strictly taboo. I’m just here to help the team succeed. No member of the team is more important than any other. Leader in the training gym.
To reinforce this culture, the coaches elected to do away with Sunday’s individual event finals entirely this season, ostensibly because of the new TV deal that will televise Friday and Saturday’s competitions live, even though…what does that have to do with Sunday? You could still have competition on Sunday, even if it’s not part of the TV broadcast. This has never been explained. Now, the individual event titles will be decided on Friday along with the all-around and the qualification to Super Six, making it, if possible, even more of a crapshoot afterthought parade of nothing than it was before. Remember how Lloimincia Hall never made a floor final in her whole career?
Individual Events
Let’s be honest, the winner of each event title will be whichever gymnast anchors the lineup of the last team competing on that event. You know it. On vault, that would be Gnat in the first session and Bresette in the second session, so we’ll go with Gnat. She would likely be the choice anyway. On bars, that’s Rogers in the first semi and Sternberg in the second, and I have no problem at all picking Rogers to win bars (even though it will probably be Wofford or one of the Floridas, both going in the 5th rotation of their semifinals). On beam, it’s Sloan in the first semi and Capps in the second semi. OOOF. Two very likely nominees to win. We’ll go with Capps. On floor, it’s Atkinson in the first and Hughes in the second. That’s tougher. They’ll both get good scores, but Gnat and McGee are probably the floor favorites.
Still, sticking to my principle that scores are too heavily based on lineup and rotation order and that the winner of each event will simply be the most recent competitor, my official picks are Gnat on vault, Rogers on bars, Capps on beam, and Atkinson on floor. Feel free to submit your own. We’ll all have a good shot of winning because I’m sure there will be a billion ties even with the increased number of judges.
Silver lining: we will no longer have to wait through an interminably long event final because thousands of qualifiers tied for fourth place in a semifinal. Those vault finals some years, when they did two vaults, and had 25 qualifiers…
Plus, what would have been the day of event finals is now the day of the WAG Test Event, so we can still use that to help pretend our lives are full. Romania, you guys. We broke it and it never got fixed.
All-around
The all-around title, also decided on Friday, is usually slightly less random, but only slightly. We all know who the top all-arounders are, and they’ll each be pecking around the top of the standings, but then also sometimes Kim Jacob wins. When the scores are this closely packed, weird things can happen very easily. To break the race down, I’ll run through the gymnasts I see as the most likely winners, so we know it will be none of them. Continue reading National Championship Preview Part 4: Do We Care About Individuals? (Not Really)→
Note: Maybe don’t start your highlight reel with a yurchenko layout…OUR HIGHLIGHTS.
Roster Atkinson, Caitlin – Senior – VT, UB, BB, FX Black, Telah – Freshman Bray, Brooke – Sophomore – N/A Cerio, Samantha – Freshman Demers, Lexus – Senior – VT, BB, FX Engler, Emma – Freshman Finister, Kennedy – Sophomore – N/A Garcia, Sarah – Sophomore – backup on VT, UB Hlawek, Kullen – Junior – FX, possible UB Jones, Blake – Sophomore – N/A Kluz, Kait – Senior – VT, UB, FX Kopec, Kelsey – Junior – VT, UB Krippner, Taylor – Freshman Milliet, Abigail – Sophomore – UB, BB (dare we hope for more?) Phillips, A’Miracal – Freshman Rott, MJ – Junior – VT, FX (possible BB) Scaglione, Lucia – Junior – N/A Slappey, Emma – Freshman Stricklin, Cara – Sophomore – N/A Recent History 2015 – 6th 2014 – 20th 2013 – 13th 2012 – 15th 2011 – 19th 2010 – 19th
2016 Outlook Last year was an immensely significant season for Auburn, achieving a program-first of some manner or another nearly every week and ultimately making it all the way to Super Six. Auburn has officially made the jump into the first tier, a team that must be seriously considered in Super Six prognostications, though they will not be among the big favorites this year. (Both the coaches and I have them at #10, so that means it’s official.) Right now, we’re probably looking at a team that’s a couple tenths weaker than last season without Walker, Guy, and Webster (though there are enough unknown quantities among the freshmen that this could change), yet they should still be able to score 197s here and there. To repeat last year’s accomplishment, Auburn would once again need to take advantage of mistakes from the very top teams, but this is now a team we can fully expect to make nationals. We’ve never been able to say that about Auburn before. Failing to qualify to nationals would be a major disappointment this year.
Key Competitor It has to be Caitlin Atkinson. While proving that the team does have true routine depth instead of just a big roster will be essential for a successful season, Auburn 2016 is a team absolutely dependent on its star. Atkinson is the best gymnast Auburn has on each event and is quite capable of being one of the very top AAers in the country with 9.9s on every piece. The big concern is managing her health because she has quite the colorful injury history and seems to get hurt at nationals every season. It’s essential that she be four-event intact at the end of the year because without Atkinson, Auburn is a 196.4-196.5 team that would struggle to stay ahead of the likes of Oregon State and Illinois. I don’t even care that her landings on the gainer pike beam dismount are worse than her landings on the double pike (which is insane, but true). Do the gainer pike. Save the Atkinson legs.
Vault
Let’s continue talking about Caitlin Atkinson, shall we? While the main objective of the new vault rules is to encourage diversity of vaults, the other aim is to appropriately award gymnasts performing high-level 1.5s by providing separation between their scores and those of similarly executed fulls. Atkinson has a very good, comfortably performed 1.5 that usually scores 9.875-9.900, below the scores for many stuck fulls. In 2016, her vault should rise much closer to the top of the standings (Atkinson was just 26th on vault in 2015) and be a major asset for the team. It will also be interesting to see if Kluz’s 1.5 comes back now because she can do it, though they have usually opted for the full with her. Either way, she’ll be in the lineup, but put her on the 1.5-to-watch list.
The other sure bets for vault are Rott and Demers, both of whom have pretty much impeccable form on high, long fulls that should score well into the 9.8s and put the team on track toward 49.300, which I anticipate will be a pretty good team vault score this year. The rest of the spots in this lineup are there to be won, and without Guy and Webster, the team will need to find a couple other 9.850-capable vaults to keep this event on track. Kopec is an option, but ideally she’ll be a backup to the Emmas (Slappey and Engler), or perhaps Krippner or Phillips, all of whom should be in the running. The wildcard is Abby Milliet, who did not vault last season but had a DTY as recently as two years ago and could be quite the vaulter if she’s physically able to do AA in college. Milliet could be the factor that turns Auburn’s vault from good to excellent. But mostly, they just don’t want to be stuck using a 9.750-9.775 (which is going to happen to plenty of teams this year), undermining the gains Atkinson can make with her 1.5.
Bars
On bars, Auburn could take a hit this year without Megan Walker. Last season, they were a little 49.200, often doing the 9.8-9.8-9.8-9.8-9.9-9.9 dance with Walker and Atkinson getting those 9.9s to bring the score up to acceptable levels. They’ll still have Atkinson to do that, but this lineup needs more than one likely 9.9 to be competitive. I’m looking to Abby Milliet. She eventually worked her way into form last season, enough to get some 9.850s on bars and beam by the end, but she is precise enough to be a regular 9.9er. As a group, the freshmen aren’t really bars workers and aren’t so much with the form, so that’s cause for some concern about depth here. Samantha Cerio is the exception and could be a standout bars worker. Auburn will need Atkinson, Milliet, and Cerio all firing to make bars an asset event, rather than an event to endure this season.
The main issue I noticed keeping Auburn’s bars scores at pedestrian levels in several meets last year was landing the dismounts. Too many steps to expect much more than a 9.800, but when Kluz and Kopec are sticking their DLOs, they have quite clean routines with the potential to contend for more than the low-mid 9.8s they were settling for last season. Ideally, they’ll be in the lineup again, leaving one more spot, which could be a problem because at this point, the execution starts getting a little rough and 9.7y. Krippner? Hlawek? A heretofore unknown ghost? This is kind of a trend and feeds back into the worry about Auburn this year. Where are the last one or two 9.8s going to come from?
Beam
Beam was a brilliant event for Auburn last year, and while half the lineup is gone now along with Jenny Rowland, the pieces still exist for beam to be an asset that shoots Auburn ahead of other nationals challengers and into a very comfortable ranking. Beam shouldn’t be a nail-biting 49.000 for the Tigers. It should be a 49.350.
I’ve already made my feelings about Caitlin Atkinson’s beam dismount clear, but even with the loathed gainer pike in her routine, she’s a good bet for a 9.900 and the occasional 9.950 as the most secure worker on the team by a hefty margin. Lexus Demers oozes style all over the arena, so while she’s a little more prone to wobble her way down to a 9.800 from time to time, she should also get her fair share of 9.900s. Milliet will also be there, with the same note as on bars. She worked her way up to 9.825s last year, but she can be another 9.9er if she cuts down the wobbleburgers.
After those three, the lineup will need a little bit of a renovation, though not necessarily entirely from freshmen. MJ Rott is quite appealing on beam, but she hasn’t been in the lineup a lot almost entirely because of consistency. It’s not that her routine can get a little 9.825; it’s that it can get a little 9.100. With all the lost routines, however, there’s a bit more onus on her to make this routine believable for the team. Cerio is also supposed to be good on beam, Krippner is a JO beam champion, and Engler is a believable choice, so a bunch of people could get time in order to figure out the most consistent options. On this event, certainly more than on bars, there is a reassuringly complete contingent of possible replacement routines.
Floor
A couple years ago, Auburn made a name for itself with its revolutionary ALL THE PIKED FULL INS floor strategy. It was effective in making the team stand out and developing an identity, though pulling back on that difficulty a little bit and focusing on, you know, not landing in a triangle shape ended up boosting the team score a tenth or so. The team does, however, still show a respectable number of E passes and should be able to bring home a couple 9.9s per meet as long as everyone’s body is in the correct number of pieces (hint: it’s one). Atkinson, obviously. We’ve covered that territory. Rott has also been in and out of the floor lineup over her career with injury, but when she’s in, she’s probably next-best behind Atkinson and can stock up on a few 9.9s herself.
Many of the other options from last season should also return, including Kluz and Demers who can consistently bring in 9.850s, and Hlawek, who was a surprise for me last season and ended up competing in the 5th spot much of the year for high scores. I assume Auburn will be happy to bring back all five of those routines, though they have lost depth options from Kadous, Webster, and Walker. The freshmen will need to bring at least one sure lineup routine along with some backups that can get reasonable scores when inevitable injuries occur. I like Emma Slappey, who had a high full-in during JO, as the most likely to keep the beat going, but Engler and Krippner will also be choices. There are enough high scores and backup options to make this a realistically 49.350-49.400 lineup when the best people are performing.
