Now comes the point in the year when we must attempt to wrench ourselves out of an NCAA mindset and pay attention to the elite world again. We’re little more than a month away from Classic now, so the Mad Max remake that masquerades as the US Olympic selection process is soon to reach its familiarly feverish levels. “Do we actually need a bars specialist?” he asks, sharpening an abandoned femur into a spear.
As a bridge between the two worlds, I periodically like to take the results of past US elite competitions and examine how the gymnasts ranked at that point compared to how they would eventually fare in NCAA a few years later. Who rises? Who falls? Who is like the mousy girl in the high school movie who takes off her glasses and suddenly turns beautiful in the NCAA code? Who was using elite difficulty to mask deficiencies that are exposed in college? As we know, success in elite and success in NCAA do not have a 1:1 relationship.
Today, I have taken the various AA and event results from the 2012 Visa Championships (Visa Championships…feels so long ago. Like the John Hancock US Championships, which were basically contemporaneous with John Hancock) and bolded the gymnasts who competed in NCAA at some point after this competition (so I didn’t include Anna Li since she’s a category all her own). A number of items jump out.
Fewer than half of the future NCAA gymnasts who competed AA at the 2012 championships continued to do AA in college (and only two or three of the eleven have been full-time AAers for multiple seasons), which helps illustrate the danger of assuming NCAA dominance for all elites. Those who continue at the same strength as all-arounders, your Sloans and Prices and Bakers, are the exception more than the rule. Instead, we have the usual random smattering of competition and success levels, ranging from barely-one-event status to best-in-the-country status. But what’s of most interest here is the reason they’re not competing AA in college.
We tend to assume that the biggest obstacle for elites transitioning to NCAA is health, that they all would be top-ranked gems if their bodies weren’t halfway to the glue factory by now after so many trips to Martha’s Texas Adventure. While that’s true in several cases, many are relatively healthy but simply not making all the lineups. Even someone who counts in the all-around category like Brianna Brown probably wouldn’t have done AA this year if Casanova had been available, and Brandie Jay spent three years not even getting close to Georgia’s beam lineup, not because of health but because of “Aaahh, beam!” In her 2015 season at Oklahoma, Dowell was in a similar position to Jay. Sometimes, in spite of an elite pedigree and strong rankings through the age of 18, gymnasts are just not top six on their NCAA teams, even on events that were elite strengths.
In breaking down some of the specific rankings, I’m not taking Sloan into account much because she wasn’t up to her full level during 2012, so this isn’t really reflective of her standing in the elite world the way 2008 and 2009 were. It’s not like Sloan was some middle-of-the-pack elite who suddenly bloomed in college.
Brandie Jay is one who leapfrogged many of her higher-ranked elite peers to become a bigger and more influential contributor in NCAA than she was in elite, finishing largely on par with the likes of Kennedy Baker, who was a higher scorer and more compelling contender during the end of the last quad. Jay is probably the best example here of someone whose dominant years were still ahead of her in 2012.
Finnegan is also an interesting case because if we were to judge her freshman year by the second-behind-Price standard that 2012 gave us, the 2016 season would be considered somewhat average and not the dominance and team-leading influence normally expected of an Olympic alternate. Yet, having gone through years of “does she do gymnastics?” in between, her three events of 9.850-9.900 and ability to leg-event at all this season are a somewhat unexpected and welcome revelation. A lot happens between elite and NCAA, and we don’t often maintain expectations for NCAA based on elite results, especially for certain types of gymnasts. I don’t think many would say Abby Milliet’s NCAA career has been disappointing so far, but she’s certainly not top-6 AA level. Even before Grace McLaughlin started at Florida, she was at “maybe a beam routine?” status, not AA-queen status.
A lot of this does come down to injury history/gymnastics style. We tend to maintain elite expectations for gymnasts with Raisman legs who look like they can hold up to four more years of gymnastics, but with the fragile-looking spinny twisties, we’re just happy to see a routine at some point, even if it’s an exhibition bars. We’re like, “Good for her! I can see knees! She still has them!”
It’s worth noting that there are no “whoops, I broke and then disappeared into witness protection without another word” gymnasts in this AA collection, which is encouraging. Everyone either made the Olympics and turned pro, did NCAA, or will do NCAA. The only one in the whole 2012 competition who doesn’t fit into those categories is Bross. There are usually more.
The quest for the individual AA title and event titles has never been anywhere in the vicinity of a primary focus during the NCAA gymnastics ALL ABOUT THE TEAM Championship, brought to you by THE CLOSEST GROUP OF SISTERS. Spoiler alert: It’s all about the team. All in. No regrets. Life lesson. Teamwork. Growth. Having each other’s backs.
Individual accolades are the ugly stepsister of college gymnastics, the one who is hidden in the attic and not allowed to come out when guests are around. (You have one of those too, right?) Publicly acknowledging a desire for individual recognition is strictly taboo. I’m just here to help the team succeed. No member of the team is more important than any other. Leader in the training gym.
To reinforce this culture, the coaches elected to do away with Sunday’s individual event finals entirely this season, ostensibly because of the new TV deal that will televise Friday and Saturday’s competitions live, even though…what does that have to do with Sunday? You could still have competition on Sunday, even if it’s not part of the TV broadcast. This has never been explained. Now, the individual event titles will be decided on Friday along with the all-around and the qualification to Super Six, making it, if possible, even more of a crapshoot afterthought parade of nothing than it was before. Remember how Lloimincia Hall never made a floor final in her whole career?
Individual Events
Let’s be honest, the winner of each event title will be whichever gymnast anchors the lineup of the last team competing on that event. You know it. On vault, that would be Gnat in the first session and Bresette in the second session, so we’ll go with Gnat. She would likely be the choice anyway. On bars, that’s Rogers in the first semi and Sternberg in the second, and I have no problem at all picking Rogers to win bars (even though it will probably be Wofford or one of the Floridas, both going in the 5th rotation of their semifinals). On beam, it’s Sloan in the first semi and Capps in the second semi. OOOF. Two very likely nominees to win. We’ll go with Capps. On floor, it’s Atkinson in the first and Hughes in the second. That’s tougher. They’ll both get good scores, but Gnat and McGee are probably the floor favorites.
Still, sticking to my principle that scores are too heavily based on lineup and rotation order and that the winner of each event will simply be the most recent competitor, my official picks are Gnat on vault, Rogers on bars, Capps on beam, and Atkinson on floor. Feel free to submit your own. We’ll all have a good shot of winning because I’m sure there will be a billion ties even with the increased number of judges.
Silver lining: we will no longer have to wait through an interminably long event final because thousands of qualifiers tied for fourth place in a semifinal. Those vault finals some years, when they did two vaults, and had 25 qualifiers…
Plus, what would have been the day of event finals is now the day of the WAG Test Event, so we can still use that to help pretend our lives are full. Romania, you guys. We broke it and it never got fixed.
All-around
The all-around title, also decided on Friday, is usually slightly less random, but only slightly. We all know who the top all-arounders are, and they’ll each be pecking around the top of the standings, but then also sometimes Kim Jacob wins. When the scores are this closely packed, weird things can happen very easily. To break the race down, I’ll run through the gymnasts I see as the most likely winners, so we know it will be none of them. Continue reading National Championship Preview Part 4: Do We Care About Individuals? (Not Really)→
One more week of regular, normal, average action, then it’s on to the conference championships, and then after that, it starts being actually important to do well. So close! With some schools taking byes this coming weekend like lazy garbage teams, we now know a few maximum RQS totals, so we can see exactly how high those teams will be able to rise. Or not rise.
The most critical ranking development came from the significant scores posted by Stanford and Nebraska on Sunday, rendering things somewhat less precarious for both teams. And more precarious for everyone else because now Nebraska and Stanford have proven 197 potential and are going to make some unlucky team very disappointed some day. No one wants a 197ing #3 seed. The problem for them is that Denver and Arkansas have also proven to be 197 teams, making it harder to move up into cozier, higher penthouse floors.
The Race for the Evening Session at SECs is also winding down, with Georgia currently on the outside looking in and trying to snatch Auburn at the last second. Oregon State also currently sits in 5th in the Pac-12, but Washington is the host of the championships this year, so this may get a little wonky. When Cal hosted two years ago, the home team’s session was the evening one, even though Cal was in the B group. It didn’t go well, but do we know if they’ve received the memo on that or if it will be more of the same? The Big Ten does things a little differently, putting six teams in the second session, with placement decided by the results at the Big Five meets this coming weekend.
In scoring news, it’s March. That’s all you need to know. The judges felt like they had permission to start throwing out the 10s like candy again, to least to everyone who isn’t named Elizabeth Price. Sloan got another beam 10, Gnat got another floor 10, and McGee also got another floor 10, all gymnasts who have already received 10s on those events this season. Then in UCLA’s own SEC-themed carnival of insane scores, Danusia got her first beam 10 for a couple years, and Brittany Rogers got her first 10 ever, just not on the event where she was supposed to get it.
As usually happens in meets like those, the craziest scores weren’t the 10s but unjustified 9.925s and 9.950s that pushed the totals up and made the 10s almost necessary. That’s why it was so funny that Price didn’t get a 10 from both judges this particular bars routine. (I’m not as worked up about vault because it was not a true stick, in spite of doing the DTY. You can’t decide not to see it simply because of difficulty, as many times as we’ve seen that happen. )
Sure, Price has done this identical bars routine four or five times and never received 10.000 for it, but this time is somewhat different because it’s not like the judges were keeping themselves clothed and professional, even the particular bars judge who went 9.950 (and who also gave Sophina 9.900 for one of her Evel Knievel dismounts). They were throwing panties on every event for all the teams, and then…
9.975. OK? You’re choosing now to have scruples?
Anyway, to the rankings! I’m taking the rankings down much lower this week for a look at who is in regionals contention and how close the race is. (It’s close.)
Oklahoma keeps putting away 197 after 197 and remains safe at #1 until at least the conference championships. It’s hard to pick at a team with these scores because while there are momentary issues like weaker vault landings over the weekend, Oklahoma is hitting us in the face with solid gymnastics week after week. The real question I have is, interestingly, about the beam lineup. Now, it’s interesting in part because I always pretend to have a question about the beam lineup and then it always ends up being better than fine in the postseason because it’s Oklahoma and beam. But then again, I look at Kmieciak, Lehrmann, Catour, Brown, Jones, and Capps (the recent six) and I think…is this really the team’s best beam lineup?
Florida gained some ground on Oklahoma this week after a crucially large road total, but it’s a bit of a treadmill process when Oklahoma keeps getting just as massive or more massive scores. The Gators compete at home next weekend for senior night and will host the annual 198 party, so they cannot drop that low road score and catch Oklahoma quite yet. The real question this week is how much of a 40 Bridget Sloan is going to have on Senior Night. I mean the score. 40.000. I’m talking about gymnastics.
The #2 ranking is safe for now, and much of the potential to challenge for #1 will come down to what Florida can do at SECs to get rid of that peasant 197.075.
Fun fact: Florida has hit all six beam routines just once since January and hasn’t had all beam scores reach 9.8 since January 15th. The balance beam situation vulture eyes are on all over the place this week.
The Tigers recorded a season high and used it to pass Alabama into 3rd, which is quite a solid ranking for a team that spent so much of the early half of the season significantly under-ranked. I see no reason to expect LSU’s RQS ascent to stop considering that those two non-bold road scores are pretty pedestrian by LSU standards and would constitute a weak meet at this point in the year. Florida is unreachable until SECs, but there will be an opening at that point if LSU records a couple more big 197s. Traveling to TWU and then to SECs, it seems realistic.
That 196.200 disaster against LSU was not a good note on which to leave the regular season, but with no meet next weekend, Alabama will have to live with annihilating my fantasy team and heading into SECs with the poor taste of sub-49 scores on bars and beam still lingering. The bars problem shouldn’t really be repeated, although Jetter’s double front is always a case of pass-the-stabbing-knife, but beam has been a case of the beautiful disasters this year, especially disastrous when some of the beautifuls aren’t competing. Winston only did one event over the weekend. What even was that?
Because LSU looks very likely to increase its RQS and Alabama is capped at 197.400, it looks like the remaining score will be more about fending off the others.
Utah finally broke through with a much-needed giant score, putting together a complete meet across all four events and increasing the team’s ceiling heading into a home meet against Georgia followed by Pac-12s, both of which we can assume will be high scores as well. We’re hitting the point in the season in which many of the rankings, especially at the top, are solidifying. Utah can’t rise any higher than 5th after this weekend and would need to continue going 197.5+ in both remaining meets to have any shot at Alabama.
Michigan hasn’t been doing poorly exactly, but as other teams keep getting 197.5s, the Wolverines have begun bleeding a ranking spot per week. The weekend’s result will be quite disappointing, throwing away the opportunity for a season high by counting a fall on beam. For yet another team, beam is becoming worrisome as this falling issue has been lingering most of the season without ever being truly resolved. In fact, it has returned with strength in the last three meets, which have included a disaster, a half-disaster, and a barely-got-through. Depending on what Utah and Auburn score next time, Michigan is close enough to move back up to #5 with a recovery performance at the Big Ten semifinal. (Why don’t they call this meet the Big Ten semifinals again? Instead of the Big Ten Big Five Five Meet, or whatever?)
Auburn was presented with the golden opportunity of passing UCLA last weekend and comfortably did the job with yet another 197, bringing back the nailed-landings vault brigade that was so impressive that one time earlier in the season. The scary thing for the other teams is the 196.275 home score that’s still lurking around. Based on current form, we should expect Auburn to obliterate that this weekend. The Tigers have a peak RQS of 197.150 after the next meet, which means a ranking as high as #5 is conceivable.
In the other race, the one for the evening session at SEC Championships, a 196.950 would clinch Auburn’s spot and keep Georgia in the cold.
Much like Michigan, UCLA falls in the rankings after a huge missed opportunity. In spite of competing without a number of important routines because of UCLA reasons, this meet was supposed to be a high 197. Continuing bars trauma and counting a fall on beam rendered the score barely usable instead of offensively huge. The Bruins will have another chance to snatch that huge score on senior day against Oklahoma, although moving up in the rankings will be a challenge with Auburn looking so likely to move up. Because UCLA’s bold scores are noticeably lower than those of the teams ranked above, it’s hard to envision much upward movement before regionals.
This was not a weekend of rainbows for Georgia, but we’re starting to see them pull closer to a reasonable ranking for this roster’s talent level. The Gymdogs, however, still aren’t putting it all together, in the first meet of the weekend actually hitting beam but throwing up an anemic bars score, and then in the second meet of the weekend kinda-sorta hitting beam and then having an OOB fest on floor. Everything is still terrifying.
With that 196.275 still to drop, Georgia has a higher peak score than UCLA after this weekend and will view moving up as doable. Passing Auburn for that evening spot is also mathematically possible, but it can only happen if Auburn doesn’t hit that target score and Georgia goes, at very minimum, 196.900.
Sup, Denver. Denver has pushed into the top 10 (!) on the strength of two more big scores over the weekend. Significantly, Sunday marked Denver’s first truly huge road total, which had been one of the questions about this team. Was this just a home thing? Now, it was at Air Force, which wasn’t exactly a road meet (it’s like when UCLA used to go to CSUF). This same meet saw Minnesota record a season high by A FULL POINT in a loosely scored affair, so the next two weeks on the road will be critical. We know this is a 196 team. Whether it’s a high-196/197 team, which is what will ultimately determine Denver’s nationals hopes, is still up for debate.
Arkansas drops a few spots this week on account of a mehish lowish 196 away against Missouri. Much like Boise State, Arkansas would always be hurt most by a case of the normal when the big teams start bigging, and that’s what happened. We just didn’t know that one of those big teams would suddenly be Denver. The HOGS now have to count a 196.200 road score, which really handcuffs their chances to move up, making placement in the #1 or #2 regional look like a solid bet. They’ll be fighting it out with a pretty equivalent team for a spot at nationals.
Arkansas has been eliminated from contention for the evening session at SECs.
Boise State has been inching up a tenth every week, leading to a season-high 196.575 on Sunday. Now, the fact that Boise State has been wildly consistent with these scores means there’s not a lot of room to move up, and because Boise State hasn’t faced any difficult teams this year or had any big wins, it’s almost certain that they will be the overlooked mystery heading into regionals even if they do maintain a solid ranking. The mystery is heightened because regionals will be their first meet against an opponent of quality. What to expect…
Stanford can breathe a little easier now with that 197.400 which shot their ranking up to a much more normal station. The Cardinal are theoretically capable of moving as high as 10th depending on their performance at Pac-12s, but since they’re out of action this coming weekend, they’ll also be quite vulnerable to getting passed by a number of teams (could theoretically finish the weekend as low as 19th, though a lot of huge scores would have to happen) including two Pac-12 foes.
Cal needs a 195.675 to move ahead of Stanford this week, and Oregon State needs a 195.850. Both teams should reach those marks rather easily, which means Stanford may very well be out of the big-girl session at Pac-12s. That would be a rather shocking turn of events.
Stanford would take this #13 spot in a second if things were actually to finish this way. In a regional with Oklahoma and Boise State, Stanford would be favored to advance. It’s just…going to take a massive result at Pac-12s to make that happen.
This is what still makes Stanford a little vulnerable. Cal’s bold scores are good and very competitive. If Cal can continue scoring these mid 196s, a ranking of 11th or 12th is not out of the picture.
Oregon State was in a dire position a week ago, but three solid home scores in a row have solved a problem like a beaver. At least for the moment. There’s still the matter of that 195.325 that must be removed if Oregon State is going to avoid a nasty placement, but of course the good news about that score is that if the Beavs are indeed able to drop it, they could possibly move into the top 12.
Nebraska also came up with a season high and savior score over the weekend in a meet featuring the returns of Laeng and Orel, which served to make the team look much less sparse and horrifying. It was always a less urgent performance than some of the others because the real urgency comes this weekend on the road at the Big Five when that 195.350 must be eliminated. If that happens, expect Nebraska’s ranking to skyrocket, but if it doesn’t, that was the last chance since Nebraska is hosting Big Tens.
Iowa recorded a number of bigger 196s in the middle of the season, but the scores have leveled off in the last couple showings, meaning it’s likely that Iowa will act as a really dangerous spoiler as a regional host rather than a contender for a second seed, which was on the table earlier. But, with those home 196s this year, Iowa is certainly in the regional spoiler conversation.
Arizona was able to drop another weak score with the performance at Oklahoma over the weekend, but it was not enough to change the ranking scenario. Competing at home next weekend, Arizona will not be able to move into the top 18 before Pac-12s and cannot make the top-seeded session. Vault has been the death of this team.
Note: Kentucky’s last two scores are 196.700 and 196.650. We can argue crazy scoring in both affairs, but that’s still something we don’t usually see from Kentucky.
GWU is continuing to record good scores but not good enough to maintain that untenable early-season ranking. This is still a very solid RQS picture ,and GWU has a legitimate shot at staying in the top 25, which would a tremendous finishing point.
Just when it looked like things were finally turning around, Illinois counts an 8 on bars. At this point, it’s highly unlikely that Illinois will snatch a #3-seed at regionals, but still, if I’m any of the teams, I don’t want to see Illinois end up in my section. This roster is still too impressive to tolerate as a #4 seed.
Washington is trudging up the rankings toward something more realistic, heading out on the “road” to Seattle Pacific tonight with a chance to get rid of that 194 and potentially move into the top 20.
SUU is a competitive team being held down by weak road scores, which continued after counting a fall on beam over the weekend. High 195s are quite attainable for this group, so they’ll have a solid chance to move back up into the top 25 after the two remaining meets.
The descent of Penn State grows ever more extreme. Remember three years ago when Penn State made nationals? When you go to Arizona State and are in a fight to see which team can be more of a mess, it’s not a good season.
Early in the season, UNH was in a fight with George Washington to reign EAGL, but things have gone downhill for New Hampshire since the beam dominance and 196s of January. It’s particularly interesting that beam has been the downfall of the last two meets, since that’s supposed to be the strength.
Now that’s a scoring disparity. Almost an identical thing happened last year, when counting a road 193 kept Kent State out of regionals despite more than competitive home scores. Will the same thing happen again? Two road meets left to fix it.
This is the weird season for NC State, when venue renovations mean that this Saturday’s meet is the team’s first and only home meet of the season. This could finally be the chance to benefit from the kind of home score that all these other adjacent teams have been able to take advantage of, with Kent State and Iowa State having to head out for road meets.
The rest of the teams are far enough back that we’ll deal with them next week if there’s still an outside chance they could get in, but this is most likely the contending group.
2016 Outlook Last season, Stanford did usual Stanford things: Start horrifyingly, slowly improve throughout the season, and then smack everyone in the face with bars and beam pretty once nationals roll around. I wouldn’t put it past Stanford to do the same thing this year—with the Ivie/Ebee dynamic duo anything is possible—but without Shapiro, Vaculik, and Wing, the dynamic has shifted away from bars and beam to an extent, putting more pressure on vault and floor to be competitive scores. It will be interesting to see if the team can adjust. As always, the primary obstacle will be depth. There aren’t a lot of backups on these events, so everyone + 3 other people have to stay healthy all season long. This is a clear nationals team, unless there’s a real injury implosion, but Super Six will be a more challenging prospect this time around without some of those stars. And by stars, I mean Kristina Vaculik’s gienger, the true meaning of Christmas. Expect the usual game of “197 or 194” roulette.
Key Competitor The rest of them. The first and second person in each lineup. We know Price can get 9.9s on every event. Hong can get 9.9s on every event she’s healthy enough to compete. Rice and Nicolette McNair can go 9.850+ on all their pieces. That’s an excellent foundation with Super Six-level scores (if it were four up, four count, Stanford would be among the favorites), but Stanford’s success will be determined by who is able to fill out the rest of the lineups. Are there at least two consistent 9.8+ scores per event coming from the likes of Daum, Chuang, Danielle McNair, Maxwell, Fitzgerald, and Spector? Those six gymnasts will determine Stanford’s fate this season. The Cardinal got twelve 9.9s in Super Six last year (and eight of them have returned this year). You know who else got twelve 9.9s? Florida. Every other school got fewer. The only thing holding this team back was the contingent of supporting scores. There’s even more pressure on them this year to be not a 9.6.
Vault
The new vault values shouldn’t be particularly devastating to Stanford, mostly because of a little gem named Elizabeth Price. She vaulted a full last season coming back from injury, and because there was no incentive to do more, but obviously she can do more difficulty than that in her sleep. She’s probably the best bet for #1 vaulter in the nation this year, and her weekly 9.9s will take a lot of pressure off the rest of the lineup. It will be worth watching who else pulls out a 1.5 this year, with Danielle McNair and Taryn Fitzgerald both capable of it, but to varying degrees of success. It’s not the sure scoring boon it is for Price, so we’ll see if it ends up being worth it. Still, the options exist to be worked on. It’s a shame Pauline Hanset missed out by a year. Maybe she would have actually been rewarded for her handspring pike 1/2 this year instead of consistently underscored.
Rice and Nicolette McNair will also return to the lineup and should be able to continue scoring in the 9.8s. The critical factor in filling out this event will be the potential refreshing injury comebacks of Rachel Daum and Melissa Chuang. Back when they were healthy, in the late 60s, Chuang could go 9.800 and Daum could go 9.850. Daum actually had a very strong 1.5 back in JO/elite days as well. Having those two back would be magnificent for filling out the lineup with enough believable options to allow the team to take it easy with Ivana Hong as needed and not feel the pressure to shove her out there on vault every week. I can’t imagine they’d push Hong to vault more than a full at this point (because when hasn’t she suffered serious knee injuries on vault?), but she still has a glorious full that can be trotted later in the year for big scores. Ideally, she’d vault the whole year, but let’s be realistic with our Hong-leg expectations. Because of Price, this lineup should still get into the 49.2s with the occasional 49.3.
Bars
Bars should be the most…transformed event from last season because the team will no longer have Vaculik Gienger and Shapiro Toe Point to rely on to bolster the collection of 9.9s. Several 9.9s still exist (so the potential for high scores remains intact), but the problem is a fundamental lack of routines. By that, I mean there are exactly six of them. That makes it pretty easy to come up with a lineup but also puts the team in a really precarious position. No injuries, no falls, no margin whatsoever. Hong and Price are the go-to women, obviously, and are both supremely capable of scoring weekly 9.9s that will be necessary to protect against depth travesties. Nicolette McNair is also quite good on bars and should consistently be pecking around 9.9. After that, hold onto your giant novelty cowboy hats because it could be a rough ride. Dare Maxwell is on the team now, and bars is both her best and most important event. Let’s hope she’s ready to go because her work is pretty and can save the day. Taylor Rice was in and out of the bars lineup last year, but she’ll need to be in every week this time around. When she hits, her routine is good for a 9.850, but she can also suffer from a chronic case of the fallsies. Similarly, Danielle McNair can be a worthwhile 9.850 on bars, but she lost her spot at the end of 2014 because of consecutive falls and didn’t get it back last season. Without Vaculik, Shapiro, and Wing around, they’ll both need to be consistently influential members of the lineup instead of just possibilities.
And then that’s pretty much it. Those are the six. The three other freshmen will probably be called upon to put together backup routines, but bars was a weakness for all of them in JO (like a 9.1-career-high kind of weakness). This coaching staff is famous for creating bars routines and greatly improving skills (watch Hong’s elite DLO, followed by her college DLO for evidence), and they’ll have to get to work this year to give the team real bars options given that there are only nine people listed on the team’s own roster as even potentially doing bars this season. When the main six compete, this could be a seriously 49.400 bars team. Three 9.900s and three 9.850s is completely doable on any old day. Let’s just hope it doesn’t end up being more 39.400 than 49.400.
Beam
As on bars, Price and Hong will lead the beam rotation with 9.9s. I say 9.9s. We all know Ivana Hong should be getting a 16 every time. Price is training double pike dismounts, which I usually question from a cynical scoring perspective just because it’s so tough to stick compared to the people who are like, “gainer full, 9.950, I’m the winner,” but with Ebee…sure. Why not? Do a layout full in. Because probably.
Stanford stands out for impressive and extended beam work that doesn’t give away the form nasties that many other teams do, meaning 9.900 is always an attainable goal for every member of the lineup. This year’s roster should be able to continue that tradition. Taylor Rice has really worked out her beam consistency over the last year or so after having to fight for her spot early in her Stanford career. Now she can be counted on as a total Solid Sandra. Nicolette McNair is the fourth and final returning stalwart from last season, though I’m less concerned about depth on beam than on bars because most people on a college team can throw together a beam routine if desperately needed (at least more than bars), even if it’s not their event. That may not even be necessary, however, because there are also comfortable options for the remaining spots that were not available last season. Rachel Daum should return to the lineup. I’ve always enjoyed her beam work and thought she should have scored higher than the mid-range 9.8s she was getting in 2014. Among the freshmen, Dare Maxwell should be able to put together something very Stanfordy, and Fitzgerald has a walkover to two feet, which is fun. I’d like to see that. Without Vaculik and Wing, this lineup may not be quite the same 49.550 IN SUPER SIX BITCHES, but 49.300 should remain an expected score.
Floor
Oh, Stanford on floor. Wherefore art thou getting 9.6s? For most teams, floor is the big event that can pad the meet total with a 49.4 to make it look relatively impressive even if it was a little 9.825 before that. For Stanford, floor is more of a nemesis to be slain than an asset to be used. Thankfully, Price and Rice exist to give Stanford two whole gymnasts who are 9.900-comfortable. Price can bring the smoothly, easily landed difficulty, and Rice is among those who can realistically and frequently get a 9.900 for a double pike routine, even if she doesn’t bust out her DLO. Also, if Taylor Rice doesn’t include the man-wipe in every floor routine she does this year, we’re rioting, agreed? Agreed. Taylor, you have been warned.
Haley Spector was also an extraordinarily necessary development on floor last season for 9.850s, competing in every meet and saving the team from falling into the clutches of the depth monster on more than one occasion. She’ll be back. Do we dare hope that Nicolette McNair is actually able to do floor this year? It was always one of her best events, if not her best, with a double arabian that could boost the team’s difficulty quotient, but she has been very missing on floor throughout her Stanford career. I’m not waiting at the altar for this routine; I’m just saying it would be nice to see at some point. Speaking of double arabians, Fitzgerald has one, and of the newbies, she seems the most likely to figure on floor. I haven’t mentioned the Hoffmans yet, who are shrouded with injury question marks, but if either of them is going to be a contributor, floor seems the most likely place. Though particularly important will be Daum and Chuang. It’s the same story as vault. They could make this lineup so much healthier and more complete with their 9.8s, giving the team a near panoply of options, which we don’t normally expect from Stanford on floor. A panoply that also includes Frowein, who competed last year for 9.7s but may not be needed this time if everything pans out.
The biggest difference between this year and last should be having Price all year long instead of rushing her back into the lineup at the very end so that floor isn’t horrifying. While it still may not be the big 49.4+ that other teams will boast, I like this floor lineup to improve on the 49.185 RQS from last season.
