Tag Archives: Florida

Season Preview

#2 Florida Preview

4 Comments

It’s almost here! False start weekend is nearly upon us, with Michigan, Arkansas, and Iowa off on a Cancun vacation with a gymnastics meet in it (1/2, 7:15 ET/4:15 PT) and Central Michigan getting started on Sunday (1/3, 1:00 ET/10:00 PT). For the rest, there’s still time, but if you haven’t yet picked your fantasy gym team, pull your life together because the deadline is Sunday. I really need to work on my draft order. It’s a shambles.

Roster
Baker, Kennedy – Sophomore – VT, UB, BB, FX
Boren, Alicia – Freshman
Boyce, Claire – Junior – UB, BB, FX
Caquatto, Bridgey – Senior – VT, UB, FX
Cheney, Amanda – Freshman
Dagen, Lacy – Freshman
Dancose-Giambattisto, Bianca – Senior – UB (possible BB)
Ernst, Peyton – Freshman
Fassbender, Ericha – Sophomore – VT, UB, BB, FX
Frazier, Morgan – Senior – N/A
Hiller, Ashley – Freshman
McLaughlin, Grace – Sophomore – BB (possible UB, FX)
McMurtry, Alex – Sophomore – VT, UB, BB (possible FX?)
Sloan, Bridget – Senior – VT, UB, BB, FX

Recent History
2015 – 1st
2014 – 1st
2013 – 1st
2012 – 2nd
2011 – 7th
2010 – 5th

2016 Outlook
Three consecutive championships and a predominately (though not entirely) intact roster pretty much tells the story for Florida, a team that should consider anything other than a fourth title an unacceptable result this season. The two serious questions about the Gators’ chances in 2016 concern their ability to replace Kytra Hunter’s scores and the new coaching staff/absence of Rhonda Power, but with a freshman class talented enough to bring its own respectable bag of 9.9s and what is basically an all-star team of the nation’s top assistant coaches now at the helm, neither of those would be particularly convincing excuses for not winning. That’s not to say Florida is guaranteed to continue on the same not-losing path, but at this point there’s no good reason to expect real regression.

Key Competitor
Alicia Boren. It is essential this season that Florida find a person (or combination of people) to replicate what Kytra brought on vault and at least come close to replicating what she brought on floor, along with shoring up an occasionally too 9.850-9.875 beam lineup. With Ernst in the process of putting herself back together post-elite, that responsibility will primarily fall to Boren. She’s quite capable of being that gymnast, and her abilities on the power events should place her toward the end of both lineups right away. She is among the critical freshmen in the nation this year because without her replacing those lost scores, the Gators won’t have the comfortable collection of surplus 9.9s that has led them to success—even on just OK days—these past four years and will feel the pressure from Oklahoma and Alabama.

Vault

Florida started slowly on vault last season, to some extent by design, but was ultimately able to deliver a 49.450-49.500 lineup replete with enough 9.9s to rank consistently among the top few vaulting teams. That should continue this year led by four vaulters who all look like reliable 9.9 options. Sloan, Boren, and Baker each have a 1.5 to keep the Gators at a competitive SV level, the most appealing aspect of these 1.5s being that they’re not “possible, maybe, she has in the past” vaults like many I’ve discussed in these previews. They have them, and they’re good. McMurtry appears to be staying with the full, even though she could do more, which is a sensible choice because her full is among the few that can still go 9.900-9.950 this season. Expect more stuck yfulls to score 9.950 this year because it’s not THE TEN. The judges won’t be as guarded about giving a yfull a perfect score because a perfect 9.950 doesn’t stand out nearly as much as a 10.

Those four are locks and should keep this lineup on pace at 49.4 in spite of the SV decreases and loss of Hunter. Perhaps a half tenth to a tenth lower than last season, but not much more than that. The question is the remaining two spots, which were a bit of an issue last year and look entirely up for grabs right now, especially if Ernst doesn’t come along right away. With this roster, they’ll be able to produce perfectly fine 9.8s for any remaining spots, but the scoring onus will remain on the big four. Fassbender was borderline-lineup all last season and seems a fair bet to have a bigger role this year. As for Bridgey, she’s pretty much always in this lineup but has become progressively more troubling on vault as the seasons go by, getting taken out of the lineup for a while last year and ultimately falling in Super Six. Bridgey’s important scores are bars and floor, so if other compelling vault options present themselves, it may make sense just to take her off the event to avoid any issues. If the chance does arise, look for possible lineup upset bids from Hiller and Cheney who both performed quite respectable fulls in JO. 

Bars

The bars lineup remains the most intact from last season, so we should have pretty much identical expectations to the scores Florida received in 2015. Bridget Sloan is the Bridget Sloan of this lineup, always getting at least 9.900, then in line for a 9.950-10.000 depending on whether she sticks and whether it’s one of her bail-legs days. Sloan is on a streak of 22 consecutive bars routines scoring at least 9.900 (and she was only as low as 9.900 four times in that span) and a streak of 37 consecutive bars routines scoring at least 9.875. She hasn’t scored lower than that since a fall on January 13th, 2013. So she’s OK at bars.

Sloan’s #2 is Bridgey, who isn’t quite as likely to score 9.9+ because she’s somewhat less consistent on the landing, but she still reaches 9.900 pretty regularly. With those two hitting, Florida’s bars shouldn’t be scoring under 49.400 and can believably go 49.5s. For my money, this is the best bars lineup in the country. (Really going out on a limb there.) The interesting one to watch will be McMurtry, who has commenced Operation Haters To The Left in response to that time she scored a surrealist fantasy of a 9.950 in Super Six and we all got lost in a sandstorm about it. She’s suddenly pulling out a high, well-executed Ray that exists now and could help complete her two-year transformation from “a little Brestyan’s-y” to bars star. With the Ray and her dismount, there’s no reason to think McMurtry won’t continue getting 9.9s this year, especially if Jenny maintains Rhonda’s lineup strategy, but we’ll get to that more on floor.

In the opening acts of the lineup, Jam Buddhist is also good for 9.900 occasionally and at least 9.850 pretty much every time. KBakes (stop trying to make KBakes happen) also emerged as a constant last year, though she has more potential on bars than the 9.800-9.850 scores she was getting. I’m hoping she can step up 2 the streets to the 9.9s this season. Ideally, Ernst will join them to be yet another 9.9 possibility since bars and beam should be her events, but if not, there are plenty of other 9.800+ choices. This is Boren’s weaker event, but she’s not bad at it; it would be nice to see Grace McLaughlin make a lineup at some point; and Fassbender and Boyce (barring injury) have been reliable backups on bars as late.  

Beam

Florida scored well on beam last year, because Florida scored well on everything last year, but it was the team’s least memorable event and most likely to suffer from a case of the blahs/phew-we-didn’t-count-a-falls. A lot of that came from not having Sloan for a chunk of the year. She was wildly vital to the lineup and will remain so this season. With few other auto-9.9s, because beam, it’s that much more important for Sloan to go, “side aerial, double full, I’m the winner!” and collect her 9.925. For this to become a standout event and score with the impressive lineups the other top teams will be trotting out, however, Florida needs another consistently huge score, so let’s turn our attention to Peyton Ernst. She’s a beamer, always has been, and this is her critical event. It’s also the only event we’ve seen her on in the training videos, so everything works out. If Sloan is going to have a partner in beam crime in 2016, it will be Ernst.

Ernst will be particularly important as Claire Boyce tries to return from a hip injury. Boyce has been a find on beam for Florida and has scored some critical 9.9s over the last couple years, so while she works to come back, others have to pick it up. Let’s hope Kennedy Baker gets it together because she should be one of the top members of this lineup. She’s Kennedy Baker. She lost her spot in the middle of last season after falling several kajillion times on her wolf turn. So…just take out the wolf turn and then everyone’s a winner, right? Right. Boren is a solid powerhouse on beam, and another who sees a double back dismount as a walk in the park, so pencil her in along with McMurtry. McMurtry occasionally had a case of the nervies on beam last season, but more often she was in the very usable 9.850-9.875 ballpark. Those six would be an impressive lineup, but there are also backups/occasional competitors/consistency stopgaps in the likes of Fassbender, McLaughlin, and ideally Cheney who is quite nice on beam and should put together a routine with few deductions. I’m also still holding out for a hero in BDG, but the wobblies and the fallsies always seem to keep her out of the lineup.

It’s a good beam team, with the potential to be a great beam team if health, consistency, and the Jenny Rowland beam magic all do their part, but this is one event where Florida doesn’t look to be in the top, you know, one in the country. Keep an eye on this early in the year because if Florida is nailing beam for 49.4s and 49.5s, it’s going to be a long season for everyone else.

Floor

While Kytra Hunter was an all-around champion, it’s not a debate as to which of her events will be the most missed. It’s floor. That DLO, forever in our hearts. Florida can expect a bit of a dip from the “oops, we got a 49.600” floor rotations of last season without Kytra’s ability to cough and get a 9.975, though the back of the floor lineup remains quite healthy. Kennedy Baker’s piked double arabian actually doubles as a flu vaccine, and then Bridget Sloan. You know. They’re both almost as likely to score 9.950 as Hunter and will push Florida’s floor right toward the top of the heap once again. Boren has an excellent full-in herself and will fit right into the Sloan/Baker club with her fair share of 9.9s. Those three can take on any other floor trio in the country, so there’s really no need to worry. I know you were extremely worried.

Now, let’s get to the Bridgey conundrum. The most interesting part of Florida’s first meet against TWU will be finding out whether the new staff will indeed continue Rhonda’s much-criticized and much-effective decision to put Bridgey in the anchor spot, getting her a money bin full of 9.950s in spite of being not as good at floor as certain other people. Yes, it ends the floor rotation on a bit of a low, but making Bridgey the floor anchor and making McMurtry the bars anchor won Florida three championships, so it seems like kind of a no-brainer. But you never know. Plenty of other coaches haven’t caught on to this strategy in spite of, um, hi. So it’s something to watch. Those Bridgey 9.950s certainly help the team total, and she certainly wouldn’t be getting so many of them in the third spot.

What do we do about the other two spots, though? I’m not really sure. As long as these other floor routines are 9.850, everything will be fine because of the scoring strength of the main four. Florida is not in need of another star, but with Claire Boyce’s injury status, there are some Wang/Spicer spots open to be won. Fassbender seems like a pick since she’s the new Wang/Spicer (always 5th-7th on the depth chart on any event, ready to fill in), but there may be an experimentation fight to fill the lineup out. This roster has enough solid double pike routines that it won’t be a problem, but those solid routines still need to be found and cultivated into 9.850s. 

Season Preview

Freshman Notes: Florida, Utah, Stanford

1 Comment

We’ve got a whole slew of new, optimistic faces ready to start their NCAA careers in a month and a half (lots of classes with 5 and 6 freshmen this year), so before they do that, let’s get to know the new meat and break down what they’ll bring to their teams—besides “such great enthusiasm and a beautiful competitive spirit,” thank you for your no help, coaches—and where they might contribute this year.

FLORIDA

The defending champs have certainly lost significant routines from Kytra Hunter and the Wang/Spicer 9.850 Preservation Committee after last season, but this is Florida and that happens every year. This new class is probably the second-strongest freshman group in the nation (because cut to LSU going, “wanna fight?”) and will be expected to maintain a similar team-scoring pace while missing very few beats, aside from the hole in the ceiling left by Kytra’s floor 10s.

It’s rare that one of the most anticipated freshmen in a season is a non-elite, but such was the level of Alicia Boren‘s annual dominance at JO nationals, winning her age group about a hundred years in a row. With most of the name-brand elites entering this season carrying Pulitzer-level injury histories, Boren looks to be among the more reliable bets for “impact freshman,” or whatever sportsball people say.

Vault and floor are a definite yes for Boren. She has a very comfortable 1.5 on vault, which is all the more valuable this season, and her floor tumbling is big, big, big. She anchored her JO floor routine with a full-in, which is a total “check me out, losers” move, and I love it. At this point, we should probably start a running tally of “SHE’S THE NEW KYTRA!!11” for the season, because it’s going to be all the time. We need a gymnastics-commentary swear jar for it. I hereby ban all further mentions.

Boren’s beam work will also have a definite place on the team, with her strong, secure acro elements and workable leaps. The main question mark as to her possible AA contribution will be bars since it’s the weaker event of her four. It’s not really a problem routine (she would compete bars for the majority of teams), but the releases are a little clunky and there’s some foot form. So, while she’s capable of putting up a usable bars routine, it will be more challenging to make the top 6 there. At the same time, her JO bars work is much stronger than McMurtry’s was, so there’s that. 9.950

Let’s move on to Peyton Ernst, the one you always think is a character from Make It Or Break It and then remember that she’s a real person. Ernst was an elite for a number of years, coming out of Texas (Bailie Key’s Broken) Dreams, and was legitimately in the conversation for an early-quad Worlds team before her case of Generalized Elite Injury Disorder set in. She has been a little witness protectiony ever since, so in some respects it will be a wait-and-see as to how much she’s able to recover those elite routines. But, with her previous elite skill set and well-rounded difficulty and quality across four events (DTY, shaposhi, DLO & double arabian on floor, strong dance elements), she would certainly contribute a big routine on any event in ideal health circumstances.

Ernst’s most important event will be beam (and that’s the one event we saw from her in the most recent training videos above). Remember when she showed up with that 6.3 elite beam routine and everyone went, “Is that a number?!?!?” We were so young then. Beam was the weakest event for the Gators last year (relative), and they haven’t really had that second sure beam 9.900 since Macko left (SHE’S THE NEW MACKO!!11…anyone? Anyone?). Ernst can be that with the right skill composition, of which she has many, many options.

Also of note, this isn’t much of a bars class (it’s the bad event for every newbie except Ernst), but the strong crop of returning bars routines means that won’t necessarily be a problem. Still, Ernst is the one who can make a real difference there.

Lacy Dagen looks to be another in that ever-growing line of strong Florida gymnasts who get  overshadowed by the bigger names but should still contend for a couple early lineup spots, depending on the general injury-scape for people like Ernst and the recovering Claire Boyce. There will be several open Wang/Spicer spots here and there, and everyone will basically have to arm-wrestle Ericha Fassbender to see who gets them. It could be a number of people. Dagen was a junior elite at the very end of the last quad and has a solid full on vault (along with about 10 other people on this roster) and showed a DLO on floor, and both of those will be assets for her.

http://www.gymnastike.org/embed/Mzk0NzU5NDY5?related=1&autoplay=false

Amanda Cheney and Ashley Hiller are the later additions to the team for this year, with Cheney excelling on beam (she also has a fine yfull and tumbling, but it’s mostly beam) with lovely line and presentation. As long as they get rid of her straddle 1/2 like yesterday, it could be a thing. Hiller was a vault standout as a JO gymnast, placing 2nd there in Senior D this year, as has some serious ups on her full.

UTAH
The Utes have quite a job to do this year if they’re to come anywhere close to reenacting last year’s 2nd-place. 12 out of 24 routines will now need replacing after the departures of Dabritz, Lothrop, Wilson, and Tutka. It’s basically the whole floor lineup.

This new class does not have the same big gymnastics and accomplished resumes of that departing group and will not be expected to replicate the same quality. As much onus will be on the sophomores like Partyka and Stover to show more routines this year to make up the lost scores, but realistically the scoring potential will not be as high. In contrast to last year, when the team had enough routines and depth to bring the new ones along slowly, these freshmen will be thrown into the fire and relied upon to do more because of just how many lineup gaps there are now.

Makenna Merrell has risen the JO ranks in the last year or so, ultimately finishing 2nd in her age group at Nationals this year. She possesses that “are you a person or a line segment?” look that everybody seems to love, especially on beam where she has an almost Nastia-circa-2003 thing going on in her movement choices (if you squint…and get drunk?).

But Megan, we’re going to have a sit down with her about wrists, right? Good. But, Merrell is an interesting one because with that look, you’d expect her to be solely bars and beam queen. That is where I expect to see her biggest contribution—she should absolutely do beam because she has good extension through her loso series and the girl can hit a split—but she also has some unexpected difficulty on vault and floor, which have yielded the majority of her best scores in JO and account for her big recent AA results.

Merrell has a 1.5 on vault and a piked full-in on floor, which is higher difficulty than anyone else in this class, though I’m not quite sold yet. The 1.5 can sometimes be a little short and fragile and is the kind of vault that probably would have been downgraded to a full in previous seasons, but this year it will be viewed as an asset and they may work harder to make it a thing. Watch that space. She’s the definite possibility as an AAer in this class.

But most importantly, Merrell is from All-American gymnastics, and the biggest thing I learned is that her gym has a meet called “All American Hot & Ready,” which is absolutely unacceptable. Also, please do not google “all american hot and ready.”

Following much “which school are you going to?” and a prolonged multi-year case of the brokens, the Wogette Sabrina Schwab ended up at Utah once UCLA was like, “I don’t know her…” If she emerges as a big contributor, expect a lot of “we didn’t give up on her like certain other schools…” Or at least I hope so. Post-TV-meet shade is one of my favorite types of shade. I’m giving Megan a lot of assignments so far.

Schwab is expected to be primarily bars and beam and contribute significantly there. It makes sense because she has definite WOGA bars, complete with lovely toe point and handstands and some slight WOGAtkatchev-itis to balance it out. Back in the day when she was doing junior elite, she also showed an enjoyable floor routine featuring a legit 3/1, so I’ll be hoping to see her on more than just bars and beam at some point over the years if she’s able to get back, but her bars is by far the most important routines this year as they try to restock that lineup post-Dabritz auto-10. They’ll need something serious from her.

Like many of her incoming peers, Shannon McNatt was a junior elite for a second in 2012. Of particular note is her Omelianchik on vault, which is the routine we’re most likely to see.

http://www.gymnastike.org/embed/Mzk5NzQyNzE1?related=1&autoplay=false

It’s a strong vault, she has been doing it for a while, and it’s still valued out of a 10, which shoots her up the vault list quite a few places. Having an Omelianchik is a much bigger asset now when the majority of gymnasts are coming in doing perfectly OK fulls that start from 9.950. I’m not sold on the other events yet, but she has the passes on floor.  

With the floor lineup so depleted, Utah will be looking for people to emerge with usable work there, even if they’re not the “ALL THE E PASSES” routines of a couple years ago. Erika Muhaw is one of those options. She’s another of the clean-high-double-pike brigade, but she also shows solid dance elements with her straddle work and could put together a routine that’s relatively free from deductions. It’s a similar story on beam. She’s a total Christine Still “efficient little gymNAST.”  

STANFORD
Stanford’s freshman class this year is sort of [scene missing], which is fitting because that whole program is like, “Shhhh, gymnastics is a secret.” Stanford gymnastics is like one of those pop-up restaurants that’s only open one Thursday every year and no one knows when it’s going to be or who’s doing it, and the only dish is a wicker chest of octopus foam. Who’s healthy enough to compete this year? We’ll find out in January! Let’s hope it’s more than 4 people this time.

Stanford’s great postseason last year was built on gorgeous bars and beam routines, so the loss of Shapiro and Vaculik is slightly troubling, mostly emotionally because how are we going to survive now? Just by watching Vaculik Gienger on youtube and then crying ourselves to sleep, like usual?  It’s not wholly troubling because the Ebee/Ivie dynamic duo should still be getting 9.9s, but it will be tough to keep the same pace since this new group doesn’t really excel on bars. That’s why Dare Maxwell will be important. She’s the one who could. In breaking news, she still does gymnastics and has great toe point along with a Ray, which should be able to be molded into something excellent by the Stanford bars machine if she stays healthy.

But as we know, this team is always in need of vault and floor routines so that they actually have 6 of them, which is where Taryn Fitzgerald comes in. She has a pretty solid full on vault (also has done a 1.5, but I’m thinking it should be a full) and a double arabian on floor at times, so that’s basically a golden ticket. Get in those lineups.

http://www.gymnastike.org/embed/ODM3NzQyODIx?related=1&autoplay=false

The biggest thing to know about Hailee Hoffman and Nicole Hoffman is that they’re not related, which is blowing my mind. I already have enough trouble with the McNairs, and at least they have the common decency to be twins. Nicole has solid, contained form in a relatively low-difficulty repertoire across most of the events. She could do a clean floor for them. As for Hailee, she has posted her best scores on vault and floor in JO, though I’ve seen very little from her.