Tag Archives: Oklahoma

Saturday Live Blog – Oklahoma @ LSU, Georgia @ Michigan

Eeeeeee! Competitive meets! (We hope.)

Michigan’s 196.975 still stands as the top score in the country after yesterday’s very first-meet showing from pretty much every team. We’ve got two big meets happening somewhat simultaneously today, but I’ll try to keep on top of it. Here’s the whole schedule:

Saturday, January 9
2:00 ET/11:00 PT – UW-Oshkosh @ Gustavus Adolphus
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Georgia @ Michigan – SCORESStream (free)
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – NC State @ Penn State – SCORESStream (free)
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Illinois-Chicago @ Western Michigan – SCORESESPN3
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – Rhode Island @ Springfield – Stream
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Oklahoma @ LSU – SCORESSECN Stream
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Northern Illinois @ Iowa – Stream ($)
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – New Hampshire, George Washington, Rutgers (Boston, MA) – SCORES
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Iowa State @ Minnesota – SCORES
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Southern Utah, West Virginia @ Denver – SCORES
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Illinois State, Seattle Pacific @ Air Force
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – Ohio State @ Washington – SCORESPac-12 Net Stream

Of note in this LSU intrasquad video from yesterday, we see a lot of Lexie Lee and no McKenna Lou. (Right?) Though there are a number of gymnasts we don’t see, so…

A team of the people this season, Michigan’s stream will be free for everyone. LSU’s, as always, requires a login.
Continue reading Saturday Live Blog – Oklahoma @ LSU, Georgia @ Michigan

The Weekend Plans – January 8-10

It’s here! Wait, how do we do this again?

Top 25 Schedule

Friday, January 8
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Ball State @ [21] Kentucky
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – [25] Central Michigan, UW-Whitewater, Winona State @ UW-Eau Claire
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [2] Florida @ Texas Woman’s
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – BYU @ [4] Utah
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Michigan State @ [18] Arizona
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [15] Illinois @ [23] Missouri
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [11]Nebraska, Bowling Green @ Arizona State
Saturday, January 9
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [9] Georgia @ [7] Michigan
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – NC State @ [17] Penn State
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [1] Oklahoma @ [5] LSU
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Iowa State @ [20] Minnesota
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [24] Southern Utah, West Virginia @ [16] Denver
9:00 ET/6:00 PT – [22] Ohio State @ Washington
Sunday, January 10
4:00 ET/1:00 PT – [23] Missouri @ Lindenwood
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [3] Alabama @ [6] UCLA
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Nor Cal Classic ([8] Stanford, [14] Cal, UC Davis. Sacramento State @ San Jose State)
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [10] Auburn @ [12] Oregon State
As always, the full schedule is available at the link at the top. Note that Arkansas and Boise State will not be competing this weekend. 
FRIDAY
-Let the live blogging begin! I’ll be here from the start, though there aren’t any really enticing matchups on Friday (you’re not even trying…), so I’ll probably bop around from meet to meet, missing everything important. I do want to make sure to watch a fair chunk of Nebraska since we rarely get to see Nebraska during the season. Florida against TWU will be broadcast on Aunt Flogymnastics, so those of you watching it are required to provide updates of honesty in the comments. You have your mission.

-For Florida, this will be a very comfortable win, but as I mentioned in the preview, I’m looking forward to seeing the lineup strategy. I’ll also be interested to find out where Peyton Ernst is at this point, how Alicia Boren does in her debut given how important she is to the team this year, and how many 10s Bridget Sloan gets. Over/under?

-There’s a little less mystery about Utah because we saw them at the RRP and they diligently release their lineups a million days in advance. This too will be an easy-peasy meet, but we’ve got a lot of event debuts (Lee and Schwab on bars, Merrell and Partyka on beam and floor), which is always reason for a keen eye. Bars and floor are the most depleted since last season, so watch for stuck-at-9.825-itis, though that may be expected to some degree this early in the season. But, is there potential to go much higher?

-Speaking of depleted, Nebraska has a bunch of empty spots in these lineups, and depth will be a major storyline this season. I’m hoping to see as many different freshmen as possible competing to give the team more options than I currently think there are. Let’s not make this not a six-AAers kind of season since that is the most nerve-wracking thing in the world. Someone find the bubble wrap. I’m also interested to see how Arizona State fills out these lineups, as in, can they? There are almost four people on the roster this season, but might it be a little less depressing than last year? A little?

 SATURDAY

 -Now that’s more like it. We’ve got two fairly huge meets on Saturday, which overlap because, once again, pull it together everyone. 
-Georgia travels to Michigan to open the season, and this will be the first meet of the year that actually has an uncertain outcome. Michigan does enter as the favorite, however, competing at home and coming off an impressive first meet for a team that was in so many pieces so recently, but it’s not open and shut. As we know, the Wolverines are still not a deep team and will need the exact competitors they showed in Cancun to be competitive with the best teams in the country this year. But now, after the Cancun success, it’s 197 or bust. Anything less is a regression. 
As of this point, Michigan’s strengths compared to Georgia look to be beam and floor given the troubles Georgia had on those events last season. The most important things the Gymdogs need to show in this first meet are a reborn, not-horrifying beam lineup (I’m hoping to see Cherrey and Jay and Schick among the new options to give this lineup some pop) and improved floor endurance versus this point last year. If they can prove those two events are under control, it will minimize any advantage Michigan might have in the second half of the meet. Georgia’s asset should be vault because of Jay and Rogers, though both teams are showing a solid number of 10.0 SVs. While bars will be very different for Georgia this season, for now at least the old story remains that Georgia needs a lead at the halfway point to have a chance. Please change the narrative, beam.
-The main event of the day, however, will be Oklahoma and LSU. Yikes. Showdown. I’m already excited. Nothing like starting the season by heading to LSU to test your mettle as the #1 team in the country. This should be an exceptionally high-quality meet, even in the first week of the season. LSU already looked in form at the preseason showcase, and Oklahoma always starts exceptionally prepared. I’m ready for both of these teams to hit 197 right off the bat, and I don’t think that’s a difficult accomplishment or expectation. 
Depending on who LSU has available, these teams are pretty well-matched on vault and floor. LSU has the bigger routines 1-6, so give the Tigers perhaps a slight advantage but not enough to be decisive or conclusive as a prognosticator. It could go either way. The real challenge for LSU, this season and always, will be proving the equal of a team like Oklahoma on bars and beam. Oklahoma is going through its own little reinvention on those events, so checking how those lineups match up to those of the past couple seasons will be interesting. Still, bars and beam are Oklahoma’s events. It would be surprising to see any actual weakness there. LSU has a wildly, wildly talented crop of beam workers, but one that is unproven and without rock-solid lineup saviors. They’ll be thrown into the fire right away by having to keep pace with the storied Oklahoma beam, but that’s what it will take to win the meet. 
SUNDAY
-Sunday also brings its share of fun with a 5 ET/2 PT triple-header of serious meets. For reference, I’ll be back for day three of the live blogging weekend for Alabama/UCLA, so if you’re watching either of the others instead, keep the rest of us posted. 
-Though UCLA is at home, which always helps, the Bruins are not exactly known for starting quickly or being at top form in January, so Alabama has more on the line as the team that really should win. Much is expected of Kiana Winston (by me), so we’ll have to see how she looks since her cameo last season doesn’t really count. Winston is especially significant with Lauren Beers coming off preseason surgery, meaning she may not be normal four-9.900s Lauren Beers right from the start. 
The vault decisions will be fascinating. Alabama has a number of 1.5 options, but we’ll have to see how many of them come to fruition right away, while UCLA has some work to do to keep pace while lacking the same pedigree of huge vaults. Paging Pua Hall. For the Bruins, this meet is all about Ohashi watch. Without Peszek and with Peng limited, they need a star to step up, and Ohashi is the nominee. That’s particularly true in this meet because if UCLA is going to win, it will be with beam loveliness since I do expect Alabama to be farther along and show more difficulty on vault and floor. UCLA’s beam should be exceptionally fantastic this year (though Alabama’s will be no slouch), and it would be really disheartening to see one of those UCLA January three-fall meets in such an significant showdown. 
-Last season, Stanford started with not enough people to compete, so the goal this time is…enough people to compete. I have no expectations for Stanford early in the season because we won’t see real Stanford until, oh, mid-March (that’s pretty true for UCLA too), but gauging depth of scores, at least six potential competitive scores on each event, will be the major factor here. A prepared and solid Cal will smell blood again this season. 
-Auburn/Oregon State may feel like the ugly duckling of the day since so much attention will be on UCLA and Alabama, but that should be a pretty competitive meet itself. Auburn has multiple new routines to try out, so we’ll have to see if this group looks like one that might become a Super Six team again in a few months. Or is it going to be a case of Caitlin Atkinson and her interns like it was in 2014? To tally the upset, Oregon State must show who besides Maddie Gardiner is ready to compete with top-10 teams. It’s the old refrain: where are the 9.9s? Right now, Auburn looks to have more of them because of Atkinson, and while it doesn’t necessarily take 9.9s to win in January, the location of the 9.9s is a serious mystery the Beavs have to solve this season. It would be nice to see at least the larval stages of a few of them.

#1 Oklahoma Preview

The final preview. We’re going on fumes now. Soon, I won’t have to use the word potential again for a whole year. Confetti. And also the meets will happen. That’s fine too, I guess. Michigan is already out of the gates, winning Cancun with a 196.975, led by Artz and Karas 9.9ing all over the place. That’ll do. Arkansas counted multiple falls. That won’t do.

Roster
Brown, Natalie – Sophomore – BB, FX
Capps, Chayse – Junior – VT, BB, FX
Catour, Stefani – Sophomore – N/A
Craus, Samantha – Sophomore – UB
Hemry, Reagan – Junior – UB
Jackson, Ali – Sophomore – VT, FX (possible UB, BB)
Jones, Charity – Junior – VT, UB, FX (possible BB)
Kanewa, Maile – Senior – VT, FX
Kmieciak, Keeley – VT, UB, BB (possible FX)
Lehrmann, Nicole – Freshman
Lovan, Kara – Junior – VT, BB, FX
Marks, Alex – Freshman
Price, Hunter – Senior – VT
Scaman, Haley – Senior – VT, UB, FX (possible BB)
Thompson, Megan – Freshman
Turner, Nicole – Senior – FX
Wofford, McKenzie – Junior – UB  
 
Recent History
2015 – 3rd
2014 – 1st
2013 – 2nd
2012 – 7th
2011 – 3rd
2010 – 2nd

2016 Outlook
OK, Sooners. The coaches have spoken, and it’s your turn to win this year. The coaches poll is binding. Weirdly, Oklahoma underperformed at Super Six last year, something we’re not accustomed to seeing from this team when not ravaged by injury, though I wouldn’t really use that as an indicator for how things will go this season. As has been the case every year since the breakthrough in 2010, Oklahoma ranks among the top couple favorites for the title, and given the team’s penchant for starting quickly, Oklahoma is the best bet to spend the lion’s share of the regular season at #1. The difference between being an easy Super Six bet (a given) and a title favorite this year, however, will lay in the team’s ability to manage its sudden Dowellessness and overcome the depletion of the bars lineup, something Oklahoma has proven quite adept at in the past.

Winning this season will be more challenging than it has been in the past couple years because the Sooners have suffered a net routine loss from that 2015 third-place result, putting them in a position of now having to do more with less. Success in 2016 will be borne from developing existing routines into 9.9s they haven’t been so far.

Key Competitor
Which brings me to Charity Jones. Jones came to Oklahoma at the tail end of those years when we were still sort of concerned about whether the team had enough power to wake the judges up out of their 9.850 comas (we were so young then). She was supposed to be a huge part of a power renaissance but has been perpetually MIA since then, competing just a bars routine or vault here and there at the very end of seasons. Now without Dowell, with Kanewa still on the comeback trail, and with a class of newbies more likely to make a mark on bars and beam, the team will be exceptionally reliant on someone like Jones to fill out the power-event lineups with competitive scores that keep the Sooners on the 49.5-everywhere track that has made them perennial title contenders. 

Vault

Brenna Dowell’s 1.5+ vault repertoire would have been an asset this season, so it’s natural to expect some dip in the scores without her. Still, Oklahoma retains enough important vaults that this should still be a top-5 vaulting team. (How many teams have I declared top-5 vaulting teams this year? Is it more than 5? I’M THE BEST.) Haley Scaman remains the star. She downgraded from the 1.5 for the scores a couple years ago, but she spent a whole season getting 9.875s for that 1.5 and can upgrade back to it no problem. It’s worth it for her to go for the 1.5, but we’ll have to see how well she scores for it compared to the 9.900-9.925s she could still get for a full this season. The landing must be there to make the 1.5 valuable. Ah, the strategy of it all. Regardless, it will be the important score in this lineup, along with Ali Jackson, who performed her 1.5 all last season and comfortably scored into the 9.9s for it.  

The remaining places look to be filled by fulls, unless the new values finally get Hunter Price into the lineup for her handspring pike 1/2. She’s been borderline-lineup her whole career, so perhaps this will boost her into the group. Or perhaps not. The roster boasts more than enough options for fulls, so we’ll just have to see who is the stickiest and amplitudiest, who can get into the high 9.8s and challenge for 9.9s instead of staying stuck at 9.800. Ideally, you’d have Kanewa on vault because her full is the best of the rest. Healthy Kanewa would be a lock for the lineup, and I’d definitely take Jones for her power (she did a DTY back in the JO days) and Capps for the way she opens out of that full. The team will also have fulls from Kmieciak, Marks, Lehrmann and Lovan that could all realistically go, so depth isn’t an issue. The only issue would be getting stuck with too many vaults in the middish, lowish 9.8s (as many teams will because of the lowered values). Scaman and Jackson sticking for 9.950 is critical.

Bars

We don’t usually expect events to look sparse for Oklahoma, but this one does. Relatively. Because otherwise critical contributors like Capps and Lovan won’t be used on bars, there aren’t as many options. In fact, the Sooners return just four people who competed even a single bars routines last year. The rest are “well, I guess she could,” which will make the bars rotation in the opening meet against LSU the one to watch. Obviously, much depends upon Wofford. She is the most refined and impressive bars worker on the team and has developed into a pretty reliable 9.900-9.950. Without the luxury of a Dowell or Spears to help her out, she’s going to have to get at least 9.900 pretty much every week.

Scaman and Kmieciak will both also return to the lineup, and because of Oklahoma, they’re precise enough to hit 9.900 here and there. Though they’re also more susceptible to a 9.825. Bars has been a 49.500-level strength for a while now, which means everyone gets a 9.900, so to keep Oklahoma within sight of that lofty goal, Lehrmann and Marks need to become not just options but reliably significant scores. Both do have the skill set and surplus toe point to become exceptional bars workers and fit right into this lineup. Mark just joined the team recently, so we’ll see how long it takes to develop that routine, but bars was Lehrmann’s best event in JO, so look for her to get serious.

The other returner is Ali Jackson, who can definitely be used and did score a couple 9.8s last year, though the toes and release amplitude aren’t quite at the level of a usual Oklahoma bars routine. Perhaps her stellar tuck full dismount will still get her in there. She’s definitely a possibility, as is Jones who competed bars for 9.8s in the past, though I’m rooting for Hemry to finally get a spot. She doesn’t have much difficulty and wouldn’t be a BAM 9.9, but she possesses beautiful qualities and has been patiently waiting in the corner for 9.9s to go away for years now to get her shot. It’s reasonable to expect a touch of score loss from last season without Dowell, Clark, and Brewer since people who couldn’t crack the lineup in 2015 now have to perform, but this roster still has more than enough oomph to make bars competitive as long as the freshmen do their parts. This is also Oklahoma, so Nicole Turner will suddenly start doing bars and get a 10. 

Beam

The Sooners experience a similar level of routine loss on beam without Clark, Brewer, and Sorensen, but there are so many more 9.850+ options spilling out of the reserves bench that it seems foolish to be in any way concerned about Oklahoma and beam. Oklahoma’s identity is beam, and I could go into trying to explain why with aesthetic arguments, but the actual reason is that it’s just better. It’s better than the other teams. Oklahoma had a 49.530 RQS last year, which is insane for beam and can’t ever be the expectation, but this team is capable of challenging somewhere near that mark and continuing to star during a season of impressive beam potential all across the country.

Obviously, Chayse Capps’ beam routine is more important than anything you’ve ever done in your life, and now that she’s not doing the mid-routine poop squat anymore, I’m 100% on board. She’ll step one centimeter and get an automatic 9.9+, and Kara Lovan’s pristine legs have never heard of a deduction before, so she’ll get her share of 9.9s as well. Kmieciak has been the leadoff for forever and usually gets a 9.850 in that spot, though her routine is just as capable as most of the others of scoring 9.9. Everyone else in this lineup is going to be a new kid on the block, but there are plenty of kids. It’s like a sister-wife cult ranch of beamers, except not creepy. Now, the most beautiful and highest potential routine of the remaining crop comes from Wofford, but since I have given up expecting her to have the consistency to make this lineup, I’ll turn my attention instead to the freshmen. Lehrmann stood out in her JO career for giving away very little in built-in deductions, so I would be surprised if she doesn’t become a stalwart in this lineup. I’m also slightly obsessed with Alex Marks’ style and potential on beam, so keep an eye on her to become one of those sudden Oklahoma beamers. Then there’s Natalie Brown, who has lovely work, and Jones and Jackson who could get in, but let’s talk about Haley Scaman.

Scaman is in a knock-down, drag-out fight with Brandie Jay to see who can be the biggest three-event star who suddenly figures out beam in her senior year to become one of the nation’s top AAers. For Scaman, like Jay, it’s not an ability issue but a consistency issue, so we’ll see if she pulls it together. The team would be better for it because she has an extra level of splits and 9.9-potential (for a non-wobbleburger) than the other backups, but it hasn’t happened so far.

Floor

The reveal of the Oklahoma floor routines is now an anticipated event on par with the reveal of the UCLA floor routines, so I’ll take a moment to point out my feelings. Obviously, everyone will be losing their bacon about Chayse Capps, not just for the engaging choreography but also for the endurance feat it will be to commit to this routine and all the tumbling at the end of a competition. But I have to say I think I’m on the Ali Jackson train this year. Love it. Of course, they’re not all going to be hits (Jones’ routine is fairly dorky and the dreaded knocking-on-the-door mime has made a comeback in Lovan’s routine), but—and not to get overly Valorie on everyone—there’s enough thematic intent and commitment in the routines that I have an opinion about all of them, and that’s what makes routines like Oklahoma’s and UCLA’s memorable and worth discussing. (Blah, blah, blah, not exclusively, other schools, blah blah blah, before the letter bombs start.)

But let’s be clear, this lineup is the Haley Scaman show. She’ll contend for 10s and regularly go 9.950 again this season. The other sure bets for the lineup include Lovan, who has perfected the “I’m mounting with a rudi and still outscoring you, how’s your E pass?” routine, and Capps and Jackson. Both Capps and Jackson are capable of 9.9s but have at times struggled with landing control and received scores unbefitting their regal statuses. Capps is in the middle of an epic will-they-won’t-they with her mercurial DLO (Capps/DLO are like the Ross and Rachel of NCAA gym), and Jackson’s landings fell apart last postseason for 9.7 after 9.7 after 9.7. It was on floor that Oklahoma gave away the title last year with poor landings in spite of going 49.5s all season long, so keep an eye on how those critical passes develop.

Floor, among all the events, is also where a resurgent Jones will prove the most valuable this season, especially while sans Kanewa. Most of the other lineup options look to be in the pretty/low difficulty/twisty club (Brown, maybe Lehrmann and Marks), making Jones stand out even more with her very comfortable full-in. Hers has always been a potentially significant routine for the team, and in the absence of Dowell, she needs to jump into that role.

Freshman Notes: Oklahoma, Alabama, Michigan

More! Things! Freshmen go win yes!

OKLAHOMA
This Sooner freshman class has a little more work to do than originally anticipated after Brenna decided she was starting to contract some confidence, and the only cure was elite. Dr. Martha had the prescription, alright. Now, Oklahoma is down 3 routines from Brewer, 3 from Dowell, 2 from Clark, and 1 from Sorensen, which is more than this tiny freshman class will be able to muster, meaning the team will be leaning fairly heavily on the 90%-missing Charity Jones and the “how’s that knee, again?” Maile Kanewa to act as reinforcements at some point to keep the lineups well stocked.

Aside from Brenna’s contributions on vault and floor, however, Oklahoma has lost value mostly on bars and beam, and this new class should be able to help out with that. It’s a very “pretty” group, so expect humanity to continue the trend of random and inadvertent weird Kathy Johnson moans, because Oklahoma. You know who you are. Nicole Lehrmann is most likely to be a major contributor, a former junior elite whose JO gymnastics has been clean as a PBS show. The toe point is a major standout quality, particularly on bars (that buttah bail), and she has the leg from and dance elements to put together a deduction-minimal beam routine.

On vault, she has shown an extended, precise full and the occasional 1.5, which could be something to watch given the rise of the 1.5 this year (although on vault Oklahoma is already replete with returners, more so than on the other events). Lehrmann doesn’t necessarily have the big power on floor—though she has performed a full-in with mixed results—but she’s a straddle element queen with clean D tumbling that could be useful. Also, this choreographic style is already KJ heaven.

Alex Marks is joining Oklahoma at the start of the competition season. She was an elite until relatively recently when she disappeared with implied injury, which put her on the JO-to-NCAA track until roster openings put her on the NCAA-right-now-immediately track. I mostly remember her as that one I’d never heard of at Classic (there’s always one) who suddenly did a back full on beam. Beam is an interesting one for Marks because it has often been her weakest score, but I really like her on it.

Give the Oklahoma beam machine some time with that routine, and I’m there for it all day. Marks has some potential pop on vault (was training a DTY way, way back), though a few of the more recent showings have been hit-or-miss with height and landing position. Since returning to JO in 2015, she has performed a twisting-only floor routine, featuring a well-executed and usable front double full, but it will be worth keeping an eye on where the power quotient is now. Or will her NCAA career will be more of the “toe-pointing my ass off” bars and beam type?


The walkon joining the Sooners this year is Megan Thompson, and it’s unlikely that we’ll see much from her. She had some cleanish tumbling back in the day, but at this point she’s mostly a beamer. She does have a competitive skill repertoire there featuring a laudably non-terrible aerial to scale. They may hope to get her on the Sorensen track.

ALABAMA 
As usual, Alabama has several million freshmen in this year’s class somehow, many of whom should figure as spot contributors (1 and 2 events for the majority of them) and should give the Tide a net gain in depth despite the losses of Clark in the AA, Williams on 2 events, and Frost on floor.

The most prominent of the Alabama freshmen is Ariana Guerra, who was a Stars gymnast before becoming a Texas Dream, and who put together a pretty solid elite career with scores in the low 14s/56s before the injury tidal wave knocked her out for the next century. Guerra is mostly known as a power gymnast, though she did not perform vault at the Halloween intrasquad for presumably all-the-injuries reasons. Floor should be her most important contribution to the team, with a strong DLO, easy double pike, and dance elements that she can endure without much deduction. She’s such an Alabama floor worker.

Guerra should also be excellent at anger beam, which will be important in the absence of Kayla Williams. She’ll slam down that punch front and two-footed layout, though splits are a challenge for her and could limit her influence. They’ll have to be smart about that routine composition. Even though Guerra is not a natural bars type, she has really worked the toe point to make it a stronger event, along with a high Ray and secure DLO. The angles and leg separations can be an issue, but evolving into another Bama power-bars worker is probably her destiny.

It should be noted at this point that I’m getting ready to be into Abby Armbrecht’s beam routine. The potential is there. The train is in the station. The defining factor of the Duckworth era so far has been infusing more style into beam routines (big surprise), and this should be an excellent project.

She already has the splits, the leg form, and a sheep jump that isn’t very NCAA in that it’s an actual sheep jump and not this:

Nailed it. Armbrecht should also figure on other events, especially with the clean y1.5 she has shown in the past, her most important scoring asset throughout JO. On floor, her work is pretty but not that big, which is a hallmark of much of this freshman class. A number of them can do perfectly clean, nice, acceptable, yada yada yada floor routines, but they’re not big Bama routines and therefore may find it difficult to squeeze into the lineup when competing for spots with the returners. 

That’s true for Amanda Huang, who has some respectable twisting skills but wouldn’t necessarily be one of the six on floor when bigger options present themselves. Huang is going to be more the bars and beam type, with a comfortable piked jaeger and clean bail to build a routine around. Her bars routine still needs to be refined in the handstands and some details, but it’s a believable lineup option. The beam story is similar. She has the skill set and good enough leg form, but can be a bit close to the beam on a lot of elements with some stiffness to her performance, so there are areas to work through if she’s to get into lineups on a team this competitive.

Angelina Giancroce, of “wasn’t she supposed to go to Georgia?” fame, is another who earns her keep on form and style more than difficulty, with dance elements being her primary strength. She scored well on floor during her JO career with those fully-hit splits and clean twisting form, but like some of the others, she does not have difficulty to be a sure option. I’m more interested in beam because of her style, even though she can be quite tentative which could compromise her chances, and bars, even though bars was far from her best JO event. She got about a 1.100 every time but has toe point, respectable amplitude on her shoot to high bar, and an elegant DLO, so I’m putting a star and a question mark next to that routine (like you do) because there’s something there. 

Jenna Bresette is a former GAGE whom I have not seen anything from in a thousand years, but she’s another along with Guerra who could figure on floor. She had a high double arabian back in the day mixed with mostly solid leaps that should see her become an option. They’ll have to replace Clark and Frost in that floor lineup, and Guerra and Bresette will be in contention for those spots along with returners like Aja Sims. I haven’t seen Bresette vault in an entire lifetime (meaning five years which is too long ago to be relevant), but the coaches seem to be high on her yfull, so there’s that.

Who else are we missing? Just 1100 more people? There’s Avery Rickett, who’s also jumping in the clown car. She has a double pike and double tuck on floor and can give them a beam routine, but doesn’t have the amplitude and form to make lineups. 

MICHIGAN
Thankfully, Michigan has the common decency not to have a hundred kabillion freshmen this year, with just the two. That’s a polite, easy-to-keep-track-of amount of freshmen. But I do expect significant contribution from both of them, enough to make up for the 6 lost routines from Sugiyama and Parker without enduring much of a lull. This roster should be able to maintain the scoring pace from last season.

Olivia Karas was a star in JO, making a splash at both the Nastia Nastiaship Starring Nastia As Nastia and JO Nationals this year, and should continue the trend in college. She’s a good bet for three events, perhaps four. Definitely vault. Karas has a 1.5 that is monstrous in a good way, with a consistently strong landing. She’s a solid bet for late-lineup/anchor there.

We’ll also see her on floor, with that high double arabian (a little cowboy but not problematic—her double arabian is not a microaggression) and impressive amplitude in leaps that will help her be one of those gymnasts who doesn’t have to fake it. The acro on beam is secure, particularly the punch front, coupled with acceptably hit splits. She does dismount with only a gainer pike, but we’ll just have to get through that emotionally.

My one question with Karas is bars, which is clearly not her preferred event. It’s OK, with good form on a shap + pak combination, but the dismount might take her out of contention. In JO, it has been an unconnected underswing to front pike, which is such a Canadian-floor-specialist bars dismount that I can’t even deal with it, and valued at only a C. They’ll have to figure out something to do with that if she’s going to be a lineup gymnast. They’ve done it before.

Emma McLean really came on strong this year in the JO ranks, and has many similar strengths to Karas. The main difference between the two is McLean’s lower difficulty, but she has shown a very high full on vault that I have to imagine could become a 1.5. Even if not, it should be an option. And while her floor difficulty has maxed out at a double pike, it’s a big double pike, and her height and cleanliness has brought in consistently impressive scores in the JO ranks.

I’m less sold on her beam (the legs are pretty floppy and the acro can be low) and bars, but the amplitude on bars was much better at JOs than at the Nastia, and her tkatchev already looks improved in preseason training videos. Because Michigan. They will still also have to come up with a dismount for her, though. But really, the team returns Brown, Sheppard, Artz, Williams, Casanova, and Christopherson from last season’s bars group, so that could also just be it.