Nationals Scoring Comparison

As I did with regionals, I’ve put together a comparison of relevant scores for the teams in each semifinal grouping at nationals, with each score followed by the team’s ranking within its semifinal. 

In addition to the event statistics, I’ve added in each team’s highest score per event from regionals to tell us which teams are most likely to get that huge 9.950 at the end to save a rotation, but I’ve also included a total of the lowest counting scores on each event from regionals. I like the lowest counting score as a reference point because so many of these teams have top-scoring gymnasts hanging around that team titles are often decided by what happens early in the lineups.

Afternoon session:

OKLAHOMA
Regional score: 197.715 [2]
RQS: 197.775 [1]
Season high: 198.175 [2]
Regular season average: 197.513 [1]
VT average: 49.481 [2]
VT RQS: 49.525 [2] 
VT regional score: 49.700 [1]
UB average: 49.315 [3]
UB RQS: 49.470 [2]
UB regional score: 49.175 [6]
BB average: 49.315 [1]
BB RQS: 49.445 [1]
BB regional score: 49.400 [3]
FX average: 49.418 [2]
FX RQS: 49.520 [1]
FX regional score: 49.450 [3]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.975; UB – 9.850; BB – 9.900; FX – 9.925; TOT – 39.650 [2]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.900; UB – 9.800; BB – 9.875; FX – 9.850; TOT – 39.425 [2]

LSU
Regional score: 198.325 [1]
RQS: 197.720 [2]
Season high: 198.325 [1]
Regular season average: 197.496 [2]
VT average: 49.506 [1]
VT RQS: 49.550 [1] 
VT regional score: 49.650 [2]
UB average: 49.333 [2]
UB RQS: 49.430 [3]
UB regional score: 49.425 [2]
BB average: 49.268 [2]
BB RQS: 49.295 [2]
BB regional score: 49.600 [1]
FX average: 49.454 [1]
FX RQS: 49.490 [2]
FX regional score: 49.650 [1]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.950; UB – 9.900; BB – 9.975; FX – 10.000; TOT – 39.825 [1]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.900; UB – 9.850; BB – 9.875; FX – 9.850; TOT – 39.475 [1]

Aside from Oklahoma’s bars score from regionals, both Oklahoma and LSU are the favorites based on both recent and season-long performances. For the remaining teams, I have put in blue the areas where each is in the top three among the teams in the semifinal.

GEORGIA
Regional score: 196.375 [6]
RQS: 197.265 [3]
Season high: 197.650 [4]
Regular season average: 197.029 [3]
VT average: 49.342 [3]
VT RQS: 49.415 [3] 
VT regional score: 49.425 [3]
UB average: 49.494 [1]
UB RQS: 49.580 [1]
UB regional score: 49.600 [1]
BB average: 49.046 [4]
BB RQS: 49.240 [4]
BB regional score: 48.475  [6]
FX average: 49.097 [5]
FX RQS: 49.280 [4]
FX regional score: 48.875 [6]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.950; UB – 9.950; BB – 9.850; FX – 9.900; TOT – 39.650 [2]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.825; UB – 9.900; BB – 9.250; FX – 9.475; TOT – 38.450 [6]

MICHIGAN
Regional score: 196.750 [4]
RQS: 197.105 [4]
Season high: 197.825 [3]
Regular season average: 196.791 [4]
VT average: 49.298 [4]
VT RQS: 49.365 [4]
VT regional score: 49.200 [4]
UB average: 49.244 [4]
UB RQS: 49.375 [4]
UB regional score: 49.275 [5]
BB average: 48.877 [6]
BB RQS: 49.075 [6]
BB regional score: 48.700  [5]
FX average: 49.369 [3]
FX RQS: 49.490 [2]
FX regional score: 49.575 [2]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.900; UB – 9.900; BB – 9.850; FX – 9.950; TOT – 39.600 [6]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.750; UB – 9.800; BB – 9.600; FX – 9.900; TOT – 39.050 [5]

STANFORD
Regional score: 197.275 [3]
RQS: 196.815 [5]
Season high: 197.275 [5]
Regular season average: 196.400 [5]
VT average: 49.206 [5]
VT RQS: 49.325 [5]
VT regional score: 49.175 [5]
UB average: 49.156 [5]
UB RQS: 49.305 [5]
UB regional score: 49.325 [4]
BB average: 49.108 [3]
BB RQS: 49.260 [3]
BB regional score: 49.450  [2]
FX average: 49.002 [6]
FX RQS: 49.120 [6]
FX regional score: 49.325 [4]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.875; UB – 9.950; BB – 9.925; FX – 9.875; TOT – 39.625 [4]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.800; UB – 9.675; BB – 9.850; FX – 9.850; TOT – 39.175 [3]

It’s interesting how clear-cut the difference on the apparatuses is among these next three teams. Georgia is all about vault and bars, Michigan is all about floor, and Stanford is all about beam. Stanford’s ideal route to Super Six would be identical to what happened at regionals: nail beam and hope that Georgia and Michigan struggle there. For Michigan, it’s staying as close as possible on three events and burning down the floor to gain a big edge, and for Georgia, it’s building up a big lead early and hoping it holds up.

ILLINOIS
Regional score: 196.600 [5]
RQS: 196.650 [6]
Season high: 197.100 [6]
Regular season average: 196.204 [6]
VT average: 49.034 [6]
VT RQS: 49.155 [6]
VT regional score: 49.025 [6]
UB average: 49.034 [6]
UB RQS: 49.205 [6]
UB regional score: 49.400 [3]
BB average: 49.035 [5]
BB RQS: 49.175 [5]
BB regional score: 49.150  [4]
FX average: 49.131 [4]
FX RQS: 49.240 [5]
FX regional score: 49.025 [5]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.900; UB – 9.925; BB – 9.900; FX – 9.900; TOT – 39.625 [4]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.725; UB – 9.850; BB – 9.800; FX – 9.725; TOT – 39.100 [4]

Evening session:

FLORIDA
Regional score: 197.050 [3]
RQS: 197.895 [1]
Season high: 198.325 [1]
Regular season average: 197.645 [1]
VT average: 49.391 [3]
VT RQS: 49.455 [3] 
VT regional score: 49.550 [2]
UB average: 49.493 [1]
UB RQS: 49.530 [1]
UB regional score: 49.550 [1]
BB average: 49.281 [1]
BB RQS: 49.445 [1]
BB regional score: 48.575  [6]
FX average: 49.467 [2]
FX RQS: 49.535 [2]
FX regional score: 49.375 [4]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.950; UB – 9.950; BB – 9.850; FX – 9.950; TOT – 39.700 [2]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.875; UB – 9.850; BB – 9.300; FX – 9.725; TOT – 38.750 [5]

ALABAMA
Regional score: 197.550 [1]
RQS: 197.615 [2]
Season high: 198.250 [2]
Regular season average: 197.361 [2]
VT average: 49.440 [2]
VT RQS: 49.485 [2]
VT regional score: 49.600 [1]
UB average: 49.325 [3]
UB RQS: 49.380 [3]
UB regional score: 49.300 [2]
BB average: 49.266 [2]
BB RQS: 49.340 [2]
BB regional score: 49.325 [1]
FX average: 49.346 [3]
FX RQS: 49.460 [3]
FX regional score: 49.325 [5]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.950; UB – 9.900; BB – 9.900; FX – 9.900; TOT – 39.650 [4]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.900; UB – 9.825; BB – 9.825; FX – 9.825; TOT – 39.375 [1]

There are a couple more red flags among the first two teams in this semifinal than in the first semifinal mostly because of Florida’s d’oh of a regionals showing, but Florida and Alabama will still be heavily favored to get through. It’s interesting to note that Alabama doesn’t have the biggest numbers in the “highest scores” category. As commenters noted in the nationals draw post, Alabama is very much a team effort this season – not as many highs or stars with multiple 9.950s, but consistent lineups where solid scores come from a number of different places.

UTAH
Regional score: 197.300 [2]
RQS: 197.575 [3]
Season high: 198.025 [3]
Regular season average: 197.270 [3]
VT average: 49.461 [1]
VT RQS: 49.510 [1] 
VT regional score: 49.325 [4]
UB average: 49.342 [2]
UB RQS: 49.435 [2]
UB regional score: 49.250 [4]
BB average: 48.986 [5]
BB RQS: 49.175 [4]
BB regional score: 49.200 [2]
FX average: 49.486 [1]
FX RQS: 49.565 [1]
FX regional score: 49.525 [1]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.875; UB – 9.900; BB – 9.900; FX – 9.950; TOT – 39.625 [5]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.850; UB – 9.825; BB – 9.800; FX – 9.850; TOT – 39.325 [2]

UCLA
Regional score: 196.600 [6]
RQS: 197.005 [4]
Season high: 197.500 [4]
Regular season average: 196.777 [4]
VT average: 49.238 [5]
VT RQS: 49.305 [5]
VT regional score: 49.125 [6]
UB average: 49.184 [4]
UB RQS: 49.380 [3]
UB regional score: 48.700 [6]
BB average: 49.046 [4]
BB RQS: 49.240 [3]
BB regional score: 49.200 [2]
FX average: 49.296 [4]
FX RQS: 49.400 [4]
FX regional score: 49.525 [1]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.900; UB – 9.950; BB – 9.950; FX – 9.950; TOT – 39.750 [1]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.750; UB – 9.225; BB – 9.700; FX – 9.850; TOT – 38.525 [6]

NEBRASKA
Regional score: 196.975 [4]
RQS: 196.825 [5]
Season high: 197.225 [5]
Regular season average: 196.682 [5]
VT average: 49.321 [4]
VT RQS: 49.325 [4] 
VT regional score: 49.475 [3]
UB average: 49.148 [5]
UB RQS: 49.240 [5]
UB regional score: 49.300 [2]
BB average: 49.067 [3]
BB RQS: 49.170 [5]
BB regional score: 49.075 [4]
FX average: 49.171 [5]
FX RQS: 49.250 [6]
FX regional score: 49.125 [6]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.950; UB – 9.950; BB – 9.875; FX – 9.900; TOT – 39.675 [3]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.850; UB – 9.800; BB – 9.725; FX – 9.775; TOT – 39.150 [4]

The numbers indicate we have a stronger favorite for the third spot in this semifinal in Utah than we have in the first one. The challengers will look to take advantage of beam, which even when hit isn’t going to be a huge score for Utah compared to other top teams. The sticks will also be a factor. Utah didn’t have huge rotation scores on vault and bars at regionals largely because of that. 

PENN STATE
Regional score: 196.725 [5]
RQS: 196.475 [6]
Season high: 197.200 [6]
Regular season average: 195.858 [6]
VT average: 49.071 [6]
VT RQS: 49.195 [6] 
VT regional score: 49.300 [5]
UB average: 48.952 [6]
UB RQS: 49.120 [6]
UB regional score: 49.075 [5]
BB average: 48.769 [6]
BB RQS: 49.090 [6]
BB regional score: 48.950 [5]
FX average: 49.132 [6]
FX RQS: 49.290 [5]
FX regional score: 49.425 [3]
Highest scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.900; UB – 9.875; BB – 9.825; FX – 9.900; TOT – 39.500 [6]
Lowest counting scores per event from regionals: VT – 9.825; UB – 9.750; BB – 9.775; FX – 9.850; TOT – 39.200 [3]

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