Returning Routine Rankings 2017

Yes, that is a picture of D-D Breaux in a pink hardhat. Because there doesn’t need to be a reason.

Now that the NCAA schedules are finally coming together-ish, it’s probably important for us to start remembering who the people are and what the things do. It’s a really tough job. We need three months.

Before beginning to evaluate this year’s incoming freshmen, I decided to check out where the teams stand without them, how they rank using only scores from 2016’s returning gymnasts. It’s a totally scientific and unimpeachable way of quantifying just how much work the freshmen and new transfers will need to do for teams to return to (or improve on) last year’s level.

When available, I used RQS for each gymnast, but when not, I used full season average.

Most teams do return at least five people who competed on each apparatus last year, but when they don’t, I filled out the remaining scores with punishment 9.700s (I told you, totally scientific). It’s a way of making sure each team has a comparable total, operating under the belief that for these top 15 teams, the backup gymnast who wasn’t good enough to compete probably would have scored a replacement-level 9.700. That is, unless the returning scores were already lower than that (*cough* Utah’s beam *cough*).

1. LSU – 197.726
VAULT
Gnat – 9.965
Ewing – 9.905
Hambrick – 9.880
Finnegan – 9.835
Cannamela – 9.835
Macadaeg – 9.790
Priessman – 9.750
49.420
BARS
Finnegan 9.915
Hambrick – 9.905
Zamardi – 9.875
Priessman – 9.869
Gnat – 9.727
Cannamela – 9.663
49.291
BEAM
Finnegan – 9.915
Gnat – 9.895
Macadaeg – 9.890
Hambrick – 9.885
Ewing – 9.870
Priessman – 9.725
Cannamela – 9.603
49.455
FLOOR
Gnat – 9.980
Macadaeg – 9.950
Kelley – 9.885
Hambrick – 9.880
Ewing – 9.865
Finnegan – 9.692
Zamardi – 9.517
Cannamela – 9.050
49.560

Losing only Savona and a not-100% Wyrick from last year’s Super Six team, LSU is sailing smoothly on most events.

2. OKLAHOMA – 197.700
VAULT
Jackson – 9.940
Jones – 9.880
Capps – 9.875
Marks – 9.835
Lehrmann – 9.800
49.330
BARS
Wofford – 9.950
Catour – 9.925
Capps – 9.920
Lehrmann – 9.915
Jackson – 9.875
49.585
BEAM
Capps – 9.955
Brown – 9.910
Lehrmann – 9.875
Jones – 9.860
Catour – 9.850
Jackson – 9.800
Lovan – 9.665
49.450
FLOOR
Jackson – 9.920
Capps – 9.915
Jones – 9.910
Brown – 9.890
Marks – 9.700
Lovan – 9.413
49.335

Oklahoma returns fewer overall competitors than LSU does and drops behind on vault and floor without Scaman. I definitely can’t think of any incoming gymnasts who will fill that role.

3. ALABAMA – 197.493
VAULT
Brannan – 9.890
Guerrero – 9.865
Bailey – 9.860
Winston – 9.850
McNeer – 9.840
Bresette – 9.835
Armbrecht – 9.642
49.305
BARS
Winston – 9.920
Brannan – 9.900
Bailey – 9.890
Jetter – 9.875
Guerra – 9.855
Giancroce – 9.792
49.440
BEAM
Sims – 9.915
Guerrero – 9.895
McNeer – 9.885
Winston – 9.845
Brannan – 9.820
Sanders – 9.800
Bailey – 9.735
49.360
FLOOR
Winston – 9.905
Jetter – 9.888
Bailey – 9.875
Brannan – 9.870
Guerrero – 9.850
Sims – 9.845
Valentin – 9.831
Guerra – 9.820
Giancroce – 9.635
49.388

Alabama also fares very well with its returning gymnasts, a function of the same thing that made the Tide successful last year, sheer depth of routines.

4. FLORIDA – 197.203
VAULT
McMurtry – 9.925
Baker – 9.915
Boren – 9.910
Fassbender – 9.830
Cheney – 9.713
Hiller – 9.700
49.293
BARS
McMurtry – 9.940
Boren – 9.860
Baker – 9.860
McLaughlin – 9.800
X – 9.700
49.160
BEAM
McMurtry – 9.945
Boren – 9.890
Fassbender – 9.880
Baker – 9.870
McLaughlin – 9.775
49.360
FLOOR
Baker – 9.940
Boren – 9.905
McMurtry – 9.885
Fassbender – 9.835
McLaughlin – 9.825
Hiller – 9.725
49.390

Florida was always going to be in more trouble post-Sloan and Caquatto, meaning the Gators will need more serious and immediate contributions from the freshmen/transfer in 2017. In most of these lineups, I’m counting only 2-3 definite returns with the rest of the spots open to be won. And needing to be won by those wildly talented newbies.

5. MICHIGAN – 197.065
VAULT
Karas – 9.940
Chiarelli – 9.890
Artz – 9.815
McLean – 9.790
Brown – 9.775
49.210
BARS
Artz – 9.900
Brown – 9.890
Karas – 9.850
X – 9.700
X – 9.700
49.040
BEAM
Artz – 9.910
Karas – 9.875
Chiarelli – 9.870
Marinez – 9.850
Brown – 9.845
49.350
FLOOR
Artz – 9.955
Karas – 9.935
Chiarelli – 9.910
Brown – 9.850
McLean – 9.815
49.465

The Wolverines’ 2017 roster is typically small and mostly freshmen, but they still rank rather high based on returning routines because of how much scoring work that core of Artz, Karas, Brown, and Chiarelli will do. The rest of the roster doesn’t have to come up with all that many big routines.

6. CAL – 196.910
VAULT
Williams – 9.865
Robinson – 9.845
Gallarzo – 9.840
Richardson – 9.825
Sy Seilnacht – 9.825
Palomarez – 9.795
Takara – 9.788
Owens – 9.763
49.200
BARS
Williams – 9.855
Howe – 9.850
Takara – 9.840
Sternberg – 9.820
Richardson – 9.800
So Seilnacht – 9.700
Gallarzo – 9.648
Owens – 9.042
49.165
BEAM
Palomares – 9.855
Howe – 9.850
Draghi – 9.845
So Seilnacht – 9.825
Richardson – 9.820
Owens – 9.790
Sy Seilnacht – 9.738
Williams – 9.542
49.195
FLOOR
Williams – 9.935
Draghi – 9.895
Howe – 9.855
Robinson – 9.855
Owens – 9.810
Palomares – 9.745
Sy Seilnacht – 9.483
49.350

Oh hey there, Cal. Good things happen when you lose exactly zero routines from last year’s team.

7. OREGON STATE – 196.596
VAULT
Dessaints – 9.900
Gardiner – 9.855
McMillan – 9.825
Jimenez – 9.815
Jacobsen – 9.810
Ricci – 9.775
Singley – 9.775
Khamedoost – 9.750
49.205
BARS
McMillan – 9.925
Jacobsen – 9.850
Dessaints – 9.850
Gardiner – 9.835
Khamedoost – 9.835
M Colussi Pelaez – 9.825
Singley – 9.588
S Colussi Pelaez – 9.567
49.295
BEAM
Gardiner – 9.905
McMillian – 9.860
S Colussi Pelaez – 9.835
Jimenez – 9.790
M Colussi Pelaez – 9.780
Ricci – 9.500
Singley – 9.175
49.170
FLOOR
Gardiner – 9.870
McMillan – 9.867
Ricci – 9.795
Singley – 9.750
Jimenez – 9.644
Jacobsen – 9.567
48.925

Oregon State also returns quite a few options, the big losses being the floor routines from Perez and Radermacher. This season’s eleventy billion freshmen should make OSU one of the deeper teams. But do they simply have a lot of routines or do they have actual depth of scores? This is the question.

8. UCLA – 196.444
VAULT
Hall – 9.840
Preston – 9.830
Cipra – 9.830
Lee – 9.825
Honest – 9.810
Meraz – 9.774
Ohashi – 9.738
Dennis – 9.675
49.135
BARS
Lee – 9.875
Honest – 9.875
Meraz – 9.810
Dennis – 9.792
Ohashi – 9.733
Mossett – 9.592
Savvidou – 9.490
49.085
BEAM
Ohashi – 9.865
Gerber – 9.860
Meraz – 9.835
Preston – 9.775
Savvidou – 9.550
Lee – 9.471
Cipra – 9.375
48.885
FLOOR
Cipra – 9.930
Mossett – 9.863
Honest – 9.861
Preston – 9.855
Ohashi – 9.830
Meraz – 9.825
Hall – 9.804
Gerber – 9.760
49.339

UCLA will basically be planning to throw all this out. With the expectations we have for the newbies, only a select handful of these returning routines should see the light of day in 2017. On some events, maybe 2? Or not even?

9. NEBRASKA – 196.301
VAULT
Laeng – 9.855
Breen – 9.836
Schweihofer – 9.805
Crouse – 9.760
Williams – 9.760
Lambert – 9.713
Orel – 9.660
49.016
BARS
Williams – 9.875
Laeng – 9.865
Breen – 9.835
Lambert – 9.825
Orel – 9.790
Crouse – 9.788
49.190
BEAM
Williams – 9.895
Breen – 9.875
Schweihofer – 9.840
Lambert – 9.742
Laeng – 9.565
Orel – 9.541
48.917
FLOOR
Breen – 9.855
Crouse – 9.840
Lambert – 9.838
Williams – 9.830
Laeng – 9.810
Schweihofer – 9.790
Orel – 9.725
49.178

Nebraska squeezed enough out of last year’s freshmen to actually get more than 1.34 competitors on each event and therefore do return somewhat realistic lineups.

Now, we get into the balance beam situations. There are a lot of them.

10. AUBURN – 196.000
VAULT
Rott – 9.870
Krippner – 9.810
Kopec – 9.794
Engler – 9.770
Garcia – 9.746
Phillips – 9.685
48.990
BARS
Milliet – 9.880
Krippner – 9.840
Kopec – 9.830
Cerio – 9.825
Engler – 9.819
49.194
BEAM
Milliet – 9.870
Hlawek – 9.820
Cerio – 9.795
Krippner – 9.750
Engler – 9.510
48.745
FLOOR
Rott – 9.895
Hlawek – 9.875
Milliet – 9.845
Scaglione – 9.756
X – 9.700
49.071

Things We Lost When Caitlin Atkinson Graduated

11. UTAH – 195.969
VAULT
Lewis – 9.845
Rowe – 9.835
Muhaw – 9.800
Lee – 9.750
Merrell – 9.750
48.980
BARS
Rowe – 9.905
Schwab – 9.875
Lewis – 9.845
Lee – 9.792
X – 9.700
49.117
BEAM
Stover – 9.900
Rowe – 9.880
Lee – 9.825
Merrell – 9.592
X – 9.592
48.789
FLOOR
Schwab – 9.910
Lewis – 9.900
Merrell – 9.850
Rowe – 9.848
Stover – 9.575
Lee – 9.392
49.083

Utah was actually considering putting up the letter X on beam at nationals last year.

12. DENVER – 195.866
VAULT
Fielitz – 9.850
Chesnok – 9.830
Ross – 9.820
Addison – 9.785
Schou – 9.755
49.040
BARS
Ross – 9.880
Chesnok – 9.860
Kern – 9.830
Addison – 9.800
X – 9.700
49.070
BEAM
Ross – 9.860
Hammen – 9.835
Schou – 9.815
Fielitz – 9.725
Chesnok – 9.556
48.791
FLOOR
Addison – 9.870
Hammen – 9.855
Schou – 9.840
X – 9.700
X – 9.700
48.965

Things We Lost When Nina McGee Graduated

13. GEORGIA – 195.637
VAULT
Marino – 9.880
Snead – 9.880
Broussard – 9.830
Johnson – 9.810
Vaculik – 9.755
49.155
BARS
Snead – 9.870
Schick – 9.855
Vaculik – 9.850
Cherrey – 9.795
Johnson – 9.625
48.995
BEAM
Broussard – 9.875
Vaculik – 9.810
Babalis – 9.805
Schick – 9.604
Cherrey – 9.269
48.363
FLOOR
Marino – 9.905
Snead – 9.850
Babalis – 9.850
Reynolds – 9.819
X – 9.700
49.124

Just start doing your beam dry-heaving now to prepare…

14. STANFORD – 195.148
VAULT
Price – 9.920
N McNair – 9.830
D McNair – 9.780
Fitzgerald – 9.775
X – 9.700
49.005
BARS
Price – 9.940
N McNair – 9.865
Maxwell – 9.795
D McNair – 9.775
X – 9.700
49.075
BEAM
Price – 9.850
N McNair – 9.840
Daum – 9.750
Fitzgerald – 9.613
D McNair – 9.400
Spector – 9.375
48.453
FLOOR
Price – 9.905
Spector – 9.845
Daum – 9.750
Fitzgerald – 9.690
N Hoffman – 9.425
48.615

Wait, you mean Stanford might have some depth problems?

15. MINNESOTA – 194.799
VAULT
Abernathy – 9.840
DeMuse – 9.815
Holst – 9.770
Gardner – 9.770
Hitchcock – 9.500
48.695
BARS
Holst – 9.885
DeMuse – 9.840
Gardner – 9.805
Hitchcock – 9.690
Cutler – 9.646
48.866
BEAM
Gardner – 9.820
Rahon – 9.730
Ung – 9.658
Holst – 9.525
DeMuse – 9.370
48.103
FLOOR
Gardner – 9.875
DeMuse – 9.850
Abernathy – 9.835
Rahon – 9.810
Holst – 9.765
Cutler – 9.650
49.135

Things We Lost When Lindsay Mable Graduated

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8 thoughts on “Returning Routine Rankings 2017”

  1. Cool analysis! I have high hopes for LSU this year. They still have the Gnat/Hambrick duo to put up huge numbers, and now Ruby on bars. Lexie is supposedly training all 4 events but is working through an injury again :/

    Like

  2. I wouldn’t be surprised if vault scores went up a bit this year, especially by the end of the season, since more gymnasts have had time to learn (and theoretically hit) 10.0 SV vaults.

    Or maybe that’s just me being optimistic.

    Like

  3. Historically it seems like most teams only trained vault like twice a week, so no real surprise gymnast who did 1 1/2 vaults in JO lost them in college. It will be interesting to see how manyteams alter training so gymnasts can maintain a 10. start value vault and if doing that means less time on other events so impacts scores elsewhere. Unless you are UCLA and you have a designated “vault squad” who vaults every day.

    Like

  4. I can see Maggie Nichols immediately impacting the Oklahoma line up especially on VT/FX.

    Brenna Dowell returns which will help them on UB/FX

    Like

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