With all the SEC meets and an Oklahoma home meet that’s actually televised for human people to watch, we’ll have quite a bit to get through today. There will be a period when I’m trying to watch Georgia/Missouri, ISU/ASU/Oklahoma, Auburn/Florida, and Kentucky/LSU, and blog about it all at the same time. It’s going to be freaky and monstrous. Get ready. I’m going for the land-speed record for mistyping tkatchev in a single blog post. Continue reading Friday Live Blog – Every Team Ever→
Apparently, the east coast broke, so some of these teams will not be competing this weekend because they’re being preserved in ice for future archaeologists to find. George Washington is out of Saturday’s meet, but as of now, the meet is still expected to go ahead. Penn State was supposed to travel to Maryland, but that meet has been postponed because of “as if.”
6:00 ET/3:00 PT – *[12] George Washington, [15] New Hampshire, Temple @ Pittsburgh
7:00 ET/4:00 PT – Rutgers @ [18] Nebraska
7:30 ET/4:30 PT – Michigan State @ [19] Minnesota
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – Washington @ [16] Denver
8:00 ET/5:00 PT – [25] Ohio State @ Iowa
Sunday, January 24
1:00 ET/10:00 PT – [21] Eastern Michigan, Illinois State @ Ball State
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [22] Cal, San Jose State @ [24] Stanford
Live blogging I’ll be here live blogging all the Friday slop as usual—get all your devices and alternate monitors and time machines ready because there will be periods when you want to watch three meets at the same time—as well as UCLA/Arizona on Saturday (but not Oregon State/Utah, just a heads up).
Friday -Most of the top teams are getting their meets out of the way on Friday, with only the major Pac-12 sides holding out until the weekend. Though the result is in doubt for very few of these meets, many of these teams are coming off nasties of varying severity in their most recent showings, so there are a couple key rotations to watch. Yeah, I’m talking about Georgia’s beam. The SEC Network should definitely cut in to Florida/Auburn when Georgia is going on beam with a breaking news update because we all need to see that thing.
-The premier meet of the week is Florida’s visit to Auburn because it features the highest-ranked underdog and because I haven’t seen a full Auburn meet yet this season. My needs make things important. Florida is the heavy favorite in this one, with a fuller contingent of both starring 9.9s and supporting 9.8s that would have to thrown up a relative splatfest for Auburn to come out on top. The Gators turned in the strongest and most complete performance in the country so far this season in their last meet, though the scoring was crazy-pie, so part of the interest in this meet will be how similarly hit routines are scored away from home. It should be a better indicator of where Florida is at this point in the season.
Perhaps surprisingly, or not, the floor rotation is the biggest question for Florida so far this year, once again last weekend featuring three great routines and three weak routines. Bridgey will chug along and get into form eventually, but that is a lineup that looks a step behind where it could be given the quality of Baker, Sloan, and Boren. Right now, they’re just missing that DLO from Wang or piked full-in from Spicer, or even the 9.850 that Boyce could bring in the first spot to make this a complete and dominant lineup 1-6. For a championship side, everyone in the floor lineup should be a possible 9.900. We’ve seen Florida, Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma, etc. do that recently, but that’s not the case for Florida right now. That wouldn’t be a real problem until Super Six, because this floor lineup is still great, but it’s something to keep in mind.
For Auburn, the first couple meets have been fine but not ideal. At this point, the team is still expecting to count some 9.7s and will need more time to develop routines from Krippner and Engler into 9.825-9.850 early-lineup options, rendering a 9.750 a drop-score rather than a phew-score. It will take more than a single January to get to that place, but those are the freshmen I’m watching with the biggest vulture-eyes in this meet. It has been encouraging to see Abby Milliet develop into a true and viable second-in-command to Atkinson on bars and beam (she even did floor last week). The question about Auburn this season is whether this will be a complete contending team or just the Caitlin Atkinson show, especially on bars and beam in the absence of Megan Walker. Milliet has already stepped up the quality from last year to fill that role. -Let’s talk LSU and Georgia. Both teams had crazy scores going halfway through their most recent meets and then fell into the wood chipper never to be seen again. At the most basic level, this next meet is about…hitting beam. The situation is more serious for Georgia than for LSU because Georgia’s issue is a pattern rather than a single catastrophe, and it’s just getting worse. It’s also overshadowing what we’re seeing on the other events: the strongest vault rotation of any team so far this year (Monday against Stanford), improved floor fitness over this point last season, and a complete bars rotation that isn’t the weakness it seemed it might be without Davis and Brown. If beam comes together, this is a legitimate Super Six team, but beam has to come together.
Beam should be one of LSU’s best events and still will be as long as everyone stops losing her mind. Macadaeg, Hambrick, Finnegan? Come on. Don’t even start. The only thing standing between them and being a top-3 beam team is a case of the beautiful disasters, though one meet does not constitute a fully-fledged case of the beautiful disasters. Mostly, we learned from the Vegas meet that LSU is more dependent on Priessman and Kelley than it may have seemed at the very beginning. That’s perhaps a no-brainer, but the Tigers clearly missed those routines in Vegas and will need those scores. If one, both, or part of either is back this weekend, Florida’s nation-leading mark will be attainable.
-Alabama put on a show of floor depth during the double-meet weekend, marching about 75 people in and out of that lineup and getting competitive scores for all of them. Depth is Alabama’s best weapon this season and will serve them very well once things start to matter. They shouldn’t have too much trouble with Arkansas, although through the first couple weeks Arkansas has proven to be a more formidable and complete team than the roster seemed to suggest, one that has six competitive, minimum-9.750 routines on each event and is quite capable of 196s.
Saturday -The Pac-12 takes over on Saturday, the showcase being Oregon State’s visit to Utah. In a gigantic twist, Oregon State is the Pac-12’s best vault team right now, which given historical precedent, is preposterous, but that’s the vaulting state of the Pac-12 right now. No Pac-12 team has even hit 49.200 through the first few weeks of the season. A lot of this comes down to difficulty, with the Pac-12 schools showing relatively few 10.0 vaults compared to their SEC peers, but the fulls we’ve seen so far have also not been remarkable enough to warrant high 9.8s. On Saturday, keep an eye on vault because all of these teams need to prove that they have multiple real 9.9s in their lineups, not just average fulls for 9.825s. Otherwise, it’s going to be an excruciatingly SEC season.
-Utah would be the favorite against Oregon State at either location, but that favorite status increases at home. The Utes could use a little traditional Utah boost after some lulls in the first couple meets. While Utah’s performances so far haven’t been outstanding, it’s clear that this will become a team that can low-mid 197 others into submission as the season progresses. The depletion of the floor lineup, however, has been quite evident early on. Floor won’t be the 9.9-a-thon of years past and the tumbling will not be as big, but Lee and Lewis need to come into their own to make this a competitive event instead of 13th in the country. It’s hard to challenge without at least 49.3s/49.4s on floor.
For the most part, Oregon State has been doing normal Oregon State things in the first couple meets. The Beavs will be in a position to pounce if Utah has to count a mistake, though the question from the preseason over where the 9.9s will come from remains, even stronger now without Aufiero this season and with Dani Dessaints mysteriously not competing last weekend. I haven’t seen one routine yet that looks like a sure 9.900+ every single time.
-UCLA has started the season quite well, especially by the standard of “The Bruins Do 194s” that we have come to expect from time to time in January and February—when UCLA just has a beam crazy for no reason and then Valorie performs some extensive feelings about it. In general, the landings and endurance look pretty good for mid-January and improved over some recent years. The meet against Florida was more encouraging than the first because of the progression shown on bars, which now needs to be maintained and come to vault as well. With the downgrade, somewhat flat, medium-distance fulls are not going to cut it against teams like Georgia that are sticking multiple 1.5s.
The Yimettes had a horrible, three-beam-fall meet last weekend, one not remotely befitting the legacy of The Tabitha or Arizona’s ability and prettiness on beam. Like Georgia and LSU, but lower profile, The Fightin’ Arizonas need a comeback meet this weekend. They won’t beat a hit meet from UCLA and would have to rely on falls to win, but…let’s at least get back into the top 25, OK?
Sunday -Cal heads to Stanford on Sunday for their second showdown already this season (why?) in a meet that no one will be able to see (why?). Cal beat Stanford the first time around, but Stanford showed some strides against Georgia by, you know, hitting and should feel more comfortable about their chances to win this one. Floor is still a big struggle, the bars lineup is incomplete, and vault is not at all competitive, but it’s getting better. Vault and floor are where Cal should have the advantage, with more believable 9.800s through the lineup, but achieving a second-straight smackdown of Stanford will hinge upon the ability to hit beam. Stanford can pretty anyone’s face off on beam, so Cal cannot afford to throw up another 48.5/48.6. That’s just too much to make up. Beam beam beam. The week of beam.
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – Nor Cal Classic ([8] Stanford, [14] Cal, UC Davis. Sacramento State @ San Jose State)
5:00 ET/2:00 PT – [10] Auburn @ [12] Oregon State
As always, the full schedule is available at the link at the top. Note that Arkansas and Boise State will not be competing this weekend.
FRIDAY
-Let the live blogging begin! I’ll be here from the start, though there aren’t any really enticing matchups on Friday (you’re not even trying…), so I’ll probably bop around from meet to meet, missing everything important. I do want to make sure to watch a fair chunk of Nebraska since we rarely get to see Nebraska during the season. Florida against TWU will be broadcast on Aunt Flogymnastics, so those of you watching it are required to provide updates of honesty in the comments. You have your mission.
-For Florida, this will be a very comfortable win, but as I mentioned in the preview, I’m looking forward to seeing the lineup strategy. I’ll also be interested to find out where Peyton Ernst is at this point, how Alicia Boren does in her debut given how important she is to the team this year, and how many 10s Bridget Sloan gets. Over/under?
-There’s a little less mystery about Utah because we saw them at the RRP and they diligently release their lineups a million days in advance. This too will be an easy-peasy meet, but we’ve got a lot of event debuts (Lee and Schwab on bars, Merrell and Partyka on beam and floor), which is always reason for a keen eye. Bars and floor are the most depleted since last season, so watch for stuck-at-9.825-itis, though that may be expected to some degree this early in the season. But, is there potential to go much higher?
-Speaking of depleted, Nebraska has a bunch of empty spots in these lineups, and depth will be a major storyline this season. I’m hoping to see as many different freshmen as possible competing to give the team more options than I currently think there are. Let’s not make this not a six-AAers kind of season since that is the most nerve-wracking thing in the world. Someone find the bubble wrap. I’m also interested to see how Arizona State fills out these lineups, as in, can they? There are almost four people on the roster this season, but might it be a little less depressing than last year? A little?
SATURDAY
-Now that’s more like it. We’ve got two fairly huge meets on Saturday, which overlap because, once again, pull it together everyone.
-Georgia travels to Michigan to open the season, and this will be the first meet of the year that actually has an uncertain outcome. Michigan does enter as the favorite, however, competing at home and coming off an impressive first meet for a team that was in so many pieces so recently, but it’s not open and shut. As we know, the Wolverines are still not a deep team and will need the exact competitors they showed in Cancun to be competitive with the best teams in the country this year. But now, after the Cancun success, it’s 197 or bust. Anything less is a regression.
As of this point, Michigan’s strengths compared to Georgia look to be beam and floor given the troubles Georgia had on those events last season. The most important things the Gymdogs need to show in this first meet are a reborn, not-horrifying beam lineup (I’m hoping to see Cherrey and Jay and Schick among the new options to give this lineup some pop) and improved floor endurance versus this point last year. If they can prove those two events are under control, it will minimize any advantage Michigan might have in the second half of the meet. Georgia’s asset should be vault because of Jay and Rogers, though both teams are showing a solid number of 10.0 SVs. While bars will be very different for Georgia this season, for now at least the old story remains that Georgia needs a lead at the halfway point to have a chance. Please change the narrative, beam.
-The main event of the day, however, will be Oklahoma and LSU. Yikes. Showdown. I’m already excited. Nothing like starting the season by heading to LSU to test your mettle as the #1 team in the country. This should be an exceptionally high-quality meet, even in the first week of the season. LSU already looked in form at the preseason showcase, and Oklahoma always starts exceptionally prepared. I’m ready for both of these teams to hit 197 right off the bat, and I don’t think that’s a difficult accomplishment or expectation.
Depending on who LSU has available, these teams are pretty well-matched on vault and floor. LSU has the bigger routines 1-6, so give the Tigers perhaps a slight advantage but not enough to be decisive or conclusive as a prognosticator. It could go either way. The real challenge for LSU, this season and always, will be proving the equal of a team like Oklahoma on bars and beam. Oklahoma is going through its own little reinvention on those events, so checking how those lineups match up to those of the past couple seasons will be interesting. Still, bars and beam are Oklahoma’s events. It would be surprising to see any actual weakness there. LSU has a wildly, wildly talented crop of beam workers, but one that is unproven and without rock-solid lineup saviors. They’ll be thrown into the fire right away by having to keep pace with the storied Oklahoma beam, but that’s what it will take to win the meet.
SUNDAY
-Sunday also brings its share of fun with a 5 ET/2 PT triple-header of serious meets. For reference, I’ll be back for day three of the live blogging weekend for Alabama/UCLA, so if you’re watching either of the others instead, keep the rest of us posted.
-Though UCLA is at home, which always helps, the Bruins are not exactly known for starting quickly or being at top form in January, so Alabama has more on the line as the team that really should win. Much is expected of Kiana Winston (by me), so we’ll have to see how she looks since her cameo last season doesn’t really count. Winston is especially significant with Lauren Beers coming off preseason surgery, meaning she may not be normal four-9.900s Lauren Beers right from the start.
The vault decisions will be fascinating. Alabama has a number of 1.5 options, but we’ll have to see how many of them come to fruition right away, while UCLA has some work to do to keep pace while lacking the same pedigree of huge vaults. Paging Pua Hall. For the Bruins, this meet is all about Ohashi watch. Without Peszek and with Peng limited, they need a star to step up, and Ohashi is the nominee. That’s particularly true in this meet because if UCLA is going to win, it will be with beam loveliness since I do expect Alabama to be farther along and show more difficulty on vault and floor. UCLA’s beam should be exceptionally fantastic this year (though Alabama’s will be no slouch), and it would be really disheartening to see one of those UCLA January three-fall meets in such an significant showdown.
-Last season, Stanford started with not enough people to compete, so the goal this time is…enough people to compete. I have no expectations for Stanford early in the season because we won’t see real Stanford until, oh, mid-March (that’s pretty true for UCLA too), but gauging depth of scores, at least six potential competitive scores on each event, will be the major factor here. A prepared and solid Cal will smell blood again this season.
-Auburn/Oregon State may feel like the ugly duckling of the day since so much attention will be on UCLA and Alabama, but that should be a pretty competitive meet itself. Auburn has multiple new routines to try out, so we’ll have to see if this group looks like one that might become a Super Six team again in a few months. Or is it going to be a case of Caitlin Atkinson and her interns like it was in 2014? To tally the upset, Oregon State must show who besides Maddie Gardiner is ready to compete with top-10 teams. It’s the old refrain: where are the 9.9s? Right now, Auburn looks to have more of them because of Atkinson, and while it doesn’t necessarily take 9.9s to win in January, the location of the 9.9s is a serious mystery the Beavs have to solve this season. It would be nice to see at least the larval stages of a few of them.
Note: Maybe don’t start your highlight reel with a yurchenko layout…OUR HIGHLIGHTS.
Roster Atkinson, Caitlin – Senior – VT, UB, BB, FX Black, Telah – Freshman Bray, Brooke – Sophomore – N/A Cerio, Samantha – Freshman Demers, Lexus – Senior – VT, BB, FX Engler, Emma – Freshman Finister, Kennedy – Sophomore – N/A Garcia, Sarah – Sophomore – backup on VT, UB Hlawek, Kullen – Junior – FX, possible UB Jones, Blake – Sophomore – N/A Kluz, Kait – Senior – VT, UB, FX Kopec, Kelsey – Junior – VT, UB Krippner, Taylor – Freshman Milliet, Abigail – Sophomore – UB, BB (dare we hope for more?) Phillips, A’Miracal – Freshman Rott, MJ – Junior – VT, FX (possible BB) Scaglione, Lucia – Junior – N/A Slappey, Emma – Freshman Stricklin, Cara – Sophomore – N/A Recent History 2015 – 6th 2014 – 20th 2013 – 13th 2012 – 15th 2011 – 19th 2010 – 19th
2016 Outlook Last year was an immensely significant season for Auburn, achieving a program-first of some manner or another nearly every week and ultimately making it all the way to Super Six. Auburn has officially made the jump into the first tier, a team that must be seriously considered in Super Six prognostications, though they will not be among the big favorites this year. (Both the coaches and I have them at #10, so that means it’s official.) Right now, we’re probably looking at a team that’s a couple tenths weaker than last season without Walker, Guy, and Webster (though there are enough unknown quantities among the freshmen that this could change), yet they should still be able to score 197s here and there. To repeat last year’s accomplishment, Auburn would once again need to take advantage of mistakes from the very top teams, but this is now a team we can fully expect to make nationals. We’ve never been able to say that about Auburn before. Failing to qualify to nationals would be a major disappointment this year.
Key Competitor It has to be Caitlin Atkinson. While proving that the team does have true routine depth instead of just a big roster will be essential for a successful season, Auburn 2016 is a team absolutely dependent on its star. Atkinson is the best gymnast Auburn has on each event and is quite capable of being one of the very top AAers in the country with 9.9s on every piece. The big concern is managing her health because she has quite the colorful injury history and seems to get hurt at nationals every season. It’s essential that she be four-event intact at the end of the year because without Atkinson, Auburn is a 196.4-196.5 team that would struggle to stay ahead of the likes of Oregon State and Illinois. I don’t even care that her landings on the gainer pike beam dismount are worse than her landings on the double pike (which is insane, but true). Do the gainer pike. Save the Atkinson legs.
Vault
Let’s continue talking about Caitlin Atkinson, shall we? While the main objective of the new vault rules is to encourage diversity of vaults, the other aim is to appropriately award gymnasts performing high-level 1.5s by providing separation between their scores and those of similarly executed fulls. Atkinson has a very good, comfortably performed 1.5 that usually scores 9.875-9.900, below the scores for many stuck fulls. In 2016, her vault should rise much closer to the top of the standings (Atkinson was just 26th on vault in 2015) and be a major asset for the team. It will also be interesting to see if Kluz’s 1.5 comes back now because she can do it, though they have usually opted for the full with her. Either way, she’ll be in the lineup, but put her on the 1.5-to-watch list.
The other sure bets for vault are Rott and Demers, both of whom have pretty much impeccable form on high, long fulls that should score well into the 9.8s and put the team on track toward 49.300, which I anticipate will be a pretty good team vault score this year. The rest of the spots in this lineup are there to be won, and without Guy and Webster, the team will need to find a couple other 9.850-capable vaults to keep this event on track. Kopec is an option, but ideally she’ll be a backup to the Emmas (Slappey and Engler), or perhaps Krippner or Phillips, all of whom should be in the running. The wildcard is Abby Milliet, who did not vault last season but had a DTY as recently as two years ago and could be quite the vaulter if she’s physically able to do AA in college. Milliet could be the factor that turns Auburn’s vault from good to excellent. But mostly, they just don’t want to be stuck using a 9.750-9.775 (which is going to happen to plenty of teams this year), undermining the gains Atkinson can make with her 1.5.
Bars
On bars, Auburn could take a hit this year without Megan Walker. Last season, they were a little 49.200, often doing the 9.8-9.8-9.8-9.8-9.9-9.9 dance with Walker and Atkinson getting those 9.9s to bring the score up to acceptable levels. They’ll still have Atkinson to do that, but this lineup needs more than one likely 9.9 to be competitive. I’m looking to Abby Milliet. She eventually worked her way into form last season, enough to get some 9.850s on bars and beam by the end, but she is precise enough to be a regular 9.9er. As a group, the freshmen aren’t really bars workers and aren’t so much with the form, so that’s cause for some concern about depth here. Samantha Cerio is the exception and could be a standout bars worker. Auburn will need Atkinson, Milliet, and Cerio all firing to make bars an asset event, rather than an event to endure this season.
The main issue I noticed keeping Auburn’s bars scores at pedestrian levels in several meets last year was landing the dismounts. Too many steps to expect much more than a 9.800, but when Kluz and Kopec are sticking their DLOs, they have quite clean routines with the potential to contend for more than the low-mid 9.8s they were settling for last season. Ideally, they’ll be in the lineup again, leaving one more spot, which could be a problem because at this point, the execution starts getting a little rough and 9.7y. Krippner? Hlawek? A heretofore unknown ghost? This is kind of a trend and feeds back into the worry about Auburn this year. Where are the last one or two 9.8s going to come from?
Beam
Beam was a brilliant event for Auburn last year, and while half the lineup is gone now along with Jenny Rowland, the pieces still exist for beam to be an asset that shoots Auburn ahead of other nationals challengers and into a very comfortable ranking. Beam shouldn’t be a nail-biting 49.000 for the Tigers. It should be a 49.350.
I’ve already made my feelings about Caitlin Atkinson’s beam dismount clear, but even with the loathed gainer pike in her routine, she’s a good bet for a 9.900 and the occasional 9.950 as the most secure worker on the team by a hefty margin. Lexus Demers oozes style all over the arena, so while she’s a little more prone to wobble her way down to a 9.800 from time to time, she should also get her fair share of 9.900s. Milliet will also be there, with the same note as on bars. She worked her way up to 9.825s last year, but she can be another 9.9er if she cuts down the wobbleburgers.
After those three, the lineup will need a little bit of a renovation, though not necessarily entirely from freshmen. MJ Rott is quite appealing on beam, but she hasn’t been in the lineup a lot almost entirely because of consistency. It’s not that her routine can get a little 9.825; it’s that it can get a little 9.100. With all the lost routines, however, there’s a bit more onus on her to make this routine believable for the team. Cerio is also supposed to be good on beam, Krippner is a JO beam champion, and Engler is a believable choice, so a bunch of people could get time in order to figure out the most consistent options. On this event, certainly more than on bars, there is a reassuringly complete contingent of possible replacement routines.
Floor
A couple years ago, Auburn made a name for itself with its revolutionary ALL THE PIKED FULL INS floor strategy. It was effective in making the team stand out and developing an identity, though pulling back on that difficulty a little bit and focusing on, you know, not landing in a triangle shape ended up boosting the team score a tenth or so. The team does, however, still show a respectable number of E passes and should be able to bring home a couple 9.9s per meet as long as everyone’s body is in the correct number of pieces (hint: it’s one). Atkinson, obviously. We’ve covered that territory. Rott has also been in and out of the floor lineup over her career with injury, but when she’s in, she’s probably next-best behind Atkinson and can stock up on a few 9.9s herself.
Many of the other options from last season should also return, including Kluz and Demers who can consistently bring in 9.850s, and Hlawek, who was a surprise for me last season and ended up competing in the 5th spot much of the year for high scores. I assume Auburn will be happy to bring back all five of those routines, though they have lost depth options from Kadous, Webster, and Walker. The freshmen will need to bring at least one sure lineup routine along with some backups that can get reasonable scores when inevitable injuries occur. I like Emma Slappey, who had a high full-in during JO, as the most likely to keep the beat going, but Engler and Krippner will also be choices. There are enough high scores and backup options to make this a realistically 49.350-49.400 lineup when the best people are performing.
