National Rankings for March 5, 2012

We have a few straggling teams that do not have their three away meets yet, so RQS won’t officially come into play until next week (unlike last year, where we started RQS before Utah was eligible, so they were just a ghost team for a week). But that means that our official rankings are still based on average, so they’re about as relevant as a Y2K reference. As such, I’ve included the top 25 based on current RQS as well below.


Official Rankings for February 20th, 2012
1. Florida – 196.929
2. Oklahoma – 196.784
3. Georgia – 196.725
3. Alabama – 196.725
5. Utah – 196.721
6. UCLA – 196.543
7. Arkansas – 196.500
8. Oregon State – 196.383
9. Nebraska – 196.308
10. Penn State – 195.982
11. Ohio State – 195.856
12. Stanford – 195.725
13. LSU – 195.575
14. Arizona – 195.321
15. Auburn – 195.250
16. Boise State – 195.225
17. Missouri – 195.211
18. Illinois – 195.036
19. NC State – 194.957
20. Denver – 194.829
21. Michigan – 194.700
22. Minnesota – 194.593
23. West Virginia – 194.543
24. Arizona State – 194.514
25. Washington – 194.504

Troester

For the uninitiated, RQS is calculated by taking a team’s top 6 scores (at least 3 of which must be away), dropping the highest score, and averaging the remaining 5. Anyone who tells you it’s complicated is lying. It took 27 words.

RQS Rankings for February 20th, 2012
1. Oklahoma – 196.995
2. Florida – 196.925
3. UCLA – 196.725
4. Georgia – 196.660
5. Utah – 196.555
6. Arkansas – 196.545
7. Alabama – 196.525
8. Oregon State – 196.180
9. Nebraska – 196.095
10. Penn State – 195.950
11. LSU – 195.935
12. Ohio State – 195.735
13. Stanford – 195.580
14. Missouri – 195.485
15. Auburn – 195.245
16. Illinois – 195.155
17. Arizona – 195.130
18. Boise State – 195.035
19. Denver – 194.890
20. NC State – 194.775
21. Washington – 194.525
22. West Virginia – 194.520
23. Iowa – 194.415
24. Kentucky – 194.255
25. New Hampshire – 194.150

Thoughts after the jump:

• Oklahoma has flown completely under the radar to this #1 RQS spot, and I don’t think anyone is sold that they are the top team in the country. They are very good, but I still have questions about how competitive they will be on vault and floor when competing directly against the top teams in the postseason–amplitude and difficulty may pale in comparison. However, they have achieved this position by being extremely consistent on beam and recording huge scores on the road, two excellent predicting factors for postseason success. 

• UCLA is a bit of a surprise in the #3 spot because they have been good but not great for the last couple weeks on the road.  However, they have put up scores in the high 196s which puts them in an advantageous position compared to teams still counting road scores in the low 196s from the beginning of the season. Unfortunately, they are looking more and more like an injury box.  

• Arkansas and Utah are the only very top teams hosting Regionals this year. Watch out for Auburn as a potential spoiler host in that #3 seed spot. That’s the most dangerous type of team in Regionals. If I’m a nonhost, I’d much rather see a top seed or a lower team with an unrealistic shot even with charitable scoring.  

• We’re just seeing Arkansas falter a bit in the rankings after the fast start. It may just be a bit too much to ask this year, but they’re making a case for always being part of the conversation.

• Most teams have just three or four regular season meets left. It’s time to start getting those postseason lineups out onto the floor this week and next week, especially because those teams that compete the week before conference championships have to manage fatigue at the very end of the regular season. This weekend, keep an eye on which teams are able to do it and which teams still have to manage lineups because of injury or uncertainty about hitting. It will be very telling with regard to postseason success. 

Rankings for February 13th
1. Utah – 196.855
2. Florida – 196.833
3. Oklahoma – 196.696
4. Georgia – 196.642
5. Arkansas – 196.554
6. Alabama – 196.540
7. UCLA – 196.504
8. Oregon State – 196.305
9. Nebraska – 196.200
10. Penn State – 195.988
11. Ohio State – 195.604
12. Stanford – 195.595
13. LSU – 195.429
14. Boise State – 195.175
15. Arizona – 195.130
16. Missouri – 195.017
17. Auburn – 194.979
18. Illinois – 194.860
19. NC State – 194.833
20. Denver – 194.725
21. Michigan – 194.670
22. West Virginia – 194.500
23. Washington – 194.425
24. Iowa – 194.383
25. Arizona State – 194.346

Troester

Have I underestimated Oregon State?  The team recorded a great score this weekend of 197.400, which certainly took me by surprise.  I tend to think of them as being the excellent Leslie Mak, a few routines from Makayla Stambaugh, and Olivia Vivian on bars.  To me, that’s not enough to sustain a top team.  But if they’re able to show more than that, we may have to expand our conversation to a nine-way race.  I haven’t seen a full meet from them this year, so I will likely check in on UCLA @ Oregon State this Friday.

More thoughts after the jump.

• Arkansas and Alabama dropped significantly after poor performances.  They will be competing against each other this week, both needing a rebound, which Alabama is more likely to get at home.  At Georgia, Grable had an off meet and Pisani had a fall, which the team could not recover from.  As they go, so goes Arkansas.
• LSU is starting to show more and more potential, scoring in the high 196s over the weekend.  Everyone will be hoping that this team finds its way into the top 12 before Regionals.  No one wants to see this LSU team as the #3 seed.  They would be a prime spoiler.  Imagine if Utah were to get Stanford and LSU in their Regional (as the rankings stand now).  That would be a fun day.
• More teams are starting to have running RQS totals, which gives us a great glimpse of where teams stand and what they need.  Oklahoma is in the wonderful position of scoring so well on the road that they have an upper hand on the rest of the teams that are trying to scrape together three usable road scores.  This is why they have the upper hand on higher-ranked Florida.
• UCLA should be pleased at how close they are to the teams above them, considering their running RQS includes a 194.600.  Even something like a 196.500 at Oregon State would put them right in middle of the lead pack.
• Nebraska competed six all-arounders last weekend, which I suppose makes sense since they are probably the team’s best on each event, but I’m not comfortable with it.  Beam continues to be a nail-biter.

Rankings for February 6th
1. Utah – 197.031
2. Alabama – 196.675
3. Arkansas – 196.667
4. Florida – 196.630
5. Oklahoma – 196.613
6. Georgia – 196.605
7. UCLA – 196.435
8. Nebraska – 196.113
9. Oregon State – 196.031
10. Penn State – 195.855
11. Ohio State – 195.530
12. Stanford – 195.450
13. Auburn – 195.245
14. LSU – 195.145
15. Boise State – 194.963
16. Arizona – 194.938
17. Denver – 194.920
18. Missouri – 194.915
19. Illinois – 194.800
20. Washington – 194.480
21. NC State – 194.445
22. Michigan – 194.381
23. Iowa – 194.375
24. West Virginia – 194.365
25. Arizona State – 194.144

Full Rankings: Troester

Utah has created quite a little lead there for what it’s worth before RQS comes into play on February 27th.  As I’ve mentioned before, Utah’s only road score so far is a 196.075 at UCLA.  Usually that would be fine, but in the current climate, anything under 196.500 is considered low.  With only three road meets remaining, they are under pressure to deliver the next two weeks at Arizona State and Michigan (where it is notoriously difficult to record a high score).  Counting a fall at even one of these meets will be the opening the rest of the teams need to catch up.

It’s a really exciting time in the rankings because, after Utah, the #2-#6 teams are so closely packed that they could really be in any order.  Beyond that, UCLA and Nebraska have been pushed slightly lower because of a single horrendous meet, but once they are able to drop those scores, they should be right back with the rest of the group.  These eight teams could really end up in any order going into the postseason, which makes this year way more exciting than the three team race we expected it to be.  The other team averaging into the 196s is Oregon State, but I’m not yet convinced that they can keep pace.  I see both OSU and Stanford as likely bets to make nationals, but only as potential spoilers once they get there, not favorites.

Now that we’re farther into the season, the rankings have become a little less elastic.  Stanford recorded a necessary 196.450 at UCLA, but they were not able to move up from 12th in spite of outscoring Ohio State by nearly a point.  Likewise, LSU broke the 196 barrier again and remained in 14th.

On the individual side, Ashley Priess has taken over the AA lead, which seems unfair since she’s competed AA a grand total of once.  For me, Grable is still the top AAer in the country to this point.  Sam Peszek has been an exceptionally consistent 9.875 gymnast in every meet this year, so expect her to be right toward the top as we go into the postseason along with Zamarripa once she gets into the AA.